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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1425

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jun 24 01:33:23 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 240131
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 240131=20
    MEZ000-240300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1425
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0831 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

    Areas affected...portions of northwest Maine

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 240131Z - 240300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A small bowing cluster emanating from eastern Quebec may
    pose a risk for damaging gusts or a brief tornado this evening.
    Confidence in a persistent severe threat is not high.

    DISCUSSION...As of 0125 UTC, MRMS and EC radar imagery showed a
    small bowing cluster of thunderstorms across the St Lawrence River
    Valley in eastern QC. Largely paralleling a stationary frontal zone,
    these storms have remained fairly organized this evening amidst
    moderate buoyancy and 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear. Additional
    moistening of the boundary layer is ongoing along and south of the
    frontal zone from low-level warm advection across western ME.
    Forecast soundings from the Rapid Refresh suggests surface dew
    points increasing to near or above 70 F, which may temporarily
    slowly nocturnal stabilization. In the presence of enlarging,
    clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, a few damaging gusts and
    perhaps a brief tornado are possible with this thunderstorm cluster.

    Storms should cross the international border in the next 1-2 hours.
    Confidence in a sustained severe threat is low as nocturnal
    stabilization will gradually diminish the remaining instability.
    Still, deep veering wind profiles and moderate shear could support
    some severe threat for a few hours tonight. Convective trends will
    continue to be monitored, though a WW currently appears unlikely.

    ..Lyons/Smith.. 06/24/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4M7SdL0wRBIecM6xMmtY_I9Ln7EI-j-27TNifOr6NF3F8w0Rha50pzd0dKmHRVdBzFqCPw-nM= lQyOm9kxl6GJV1NcP8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

    LAT...LON 47256969 47366935 47176894 46526856 46116878 45666917
    45556938 45617036 45967068 47256969=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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