ACUS11 KWNS 232146
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232145=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-232345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1421
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0445 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Areas affected...Northwest Oklahoma into central Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 232145Z - 232345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to pose an isolated
severe wind and hail risk through the early evening hours. This
threat should generally remain sufficiently localized to preclude
watch issuance, but a watch is possible if a more focus corridor of
severe thunderstorms becomes apparent.

DISCUSSION...Over the past two hours, scattered convection has
developed along and ahead of a weak cold front from northeast KS
into far northeast NM. Despite a very buoyant air mass ahead of the
front (characterized by MLCAPE values upwards of 2000-3000 J/kg),
stronger flow aloft remains largely displaced to the northwest
behind the front. This is limiting deep-layer wind shear to around
20-25 knots for much of the region, which should favor a mix of
loosely organized cells/clusters with occasionally robust updrafts
and/or outflow. Recent convective trends bear this out with only
sporadic reports of large hail and severe gusts emanating from
mostly transient convection. While isolated instances of severe hail
and/or severe winds will remain possible across a broad region, the
meager deep-layer shear and scattered nature of the convection
limits confidence in a more widespread severe threat. Nonetheless,
this environment could support a somewhat more organized cluster or
two with a more focused severe wind threat if sufficient cold pool
amalgamation can occur. While this does not appear imminent,
convective trends will continue to be monitored and watch issuance
is possible if this scenario begins to emerge.

..Moore/Smith.. 06/23/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6ecMy4QGic_2rw9YZCuu7wgjrHTFOkvyeaUGxaVEmbaxI7uDbxInPhUTs4bwqHdb6bMcllzmU= HQMjjuG1A1WQq0P93E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON 37579666 36789823 36269956 36150054 36200125 36730177
37280167 37680115 37810107 39239923 39769832 39939784
39949730 39819679 39639636 39289604 38919579 38519572
38019598 37579666=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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