ACUS11 KWNS 232019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232018=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-232045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1419
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0318 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Areas affected...portions of southeastern New Mexico into far west
Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 232018Z - 232045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A severe gust or two cannot be ruled out this afternoon.
The sparse severe threat should preclude a Severe Thunderstorm Watch
issuance.

DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery depicts intensifying
thunderstorm updrafts, with 40 dBZ cores reaching the 30-50 kft
range. Boundary layer lapse rates continue to steepen to 9 C/km (per
20Z mesoanalysis) given strong surface heating. As such, one of the
stronger storm cores could collapse and produce a severe gust.
However, vertical wind shear is weak, and pulse-cellular storms
should remain the primary storm mode. As such, the severe threat is
low, and a WW issuance is not expected.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 06/23/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8mAXZZ_Hx585r3panpG9MCsGEKWjVWAdLBy-NId5AbAzwhXXWzQ1iKzn3qW33t6moxoVRvtQo= JqiiWgKJwtwyxD4n-o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 30940554 33480572 34070557 34380443 34150294 33690243
33260240 32230288 31180295 30700315 30510356 30540475
30940554=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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