ACUS11 KWNS 230119
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230118=20
MNZ000-230315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1413
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0818 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Areas affected...Northern Minnesota

Concerning...Tornado Watch 451...

Valid 230118Z - 230315Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 451 continues.

SUMMARY...A tornado threat will continue for the next few hours as
storms move along and just south of the international border in
north-central Minnesota.

DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, a supercell over north-central MN
has reached sufficient intensity to develop a persistent mesocyclone
with at least one tornado recently reported. To its immediate south,
additional convective towers continue to percolate, though have not
yet reached sufficient intensity to pose a robust severe threat.
However, recent surface observations have shown a northward
expansion of the warm sector over the past couple of hours
downstream from this activity. This will maximize storm residence
time within a very favorable environment for supercellular
tornadoes. A modest increase in the low-level wind fields associated
with the deepening surface low has also bolstered effective SRH
slightly, which will also help maintain the tornado threat. Although
storm coverage within this environment remains uncertain - GOES
imagery shows shallow convective towers struggling to overcome
residual capping within the open warm sector - any cells that can
mature will likely pose a tornado threat.

..Moore.. 06/23/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-u1fZNpV3bTkkXSoBwpsmZv-JRlTxyW_X2cvVKG5lqCOhglBAkMcUqNeaVhD2YWOENKvzhLrI= 5mJ0MbM1Ab6_Vxjovs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

LAT...LON 47749324 47559359 47509393 47619550 47689564 47859574
48169569 48569550 48889521 49029492 48969464 48789437
48699388 48679351 48679311 48569302 48249301 47749324=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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