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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1410

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 22 22:53:10 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 222253
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 222252=20
    NEZ000-SDZ000-230045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1410
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0552 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

    Areas affected...Central Nebraska...Southeast South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 453...

    Valid 222252Z - 230045Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 453
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Coverage of severe storms will increase this evening over
    central NE and southeast SD. Very large hail, damaging winds, and
    perhaps a tornado are possible.

    DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, a cluster of intensifying
    thunderstorms has congealed into a significant supercell over Blaine
    County NE. This storm is immediately along a slow moving surface
    cold front, with ambient wind fields potentially allowing the storm
    to remain in the frontal zone for the next couple of hours. If this
    were to occur, a corridor of significant severe risk (very large
    hail and wind gusts exceeding 65 knots) could occur across parts of Loup/Rock/Holt counties. Enhanced low-level convergence and shear
    along the front could also result in a brief tornado or two,
    although high LCL heights and rather weak shear in the warm sector
    are limiting factors.

    Farther south, visible satellite shows a few tcu attempts along the
    dryline over south-central NE. If these storms can become
    established, high-based supercell structures would be favored
    capable of damaging winds and large hail.

    ..Hart.. 06/22/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7pj4mL_R9QJ7Wdq0cl8hGhHpXHXWIbl6jfxoD3aBt2TpE2Cfyyd65FNq6uOAgLDO7fGEn8nuK= sn-AxryodQ2_2d68ec$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...

    LAT...LON 40690070 42689938 43219796 42809737 41629904 40310039
    40690070=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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