1. Forum
  2. Fidonet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1409

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 22 22:52:40 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 222252
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 222252=20
    MNZ000-230045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1409
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0552 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

    Areas affected...northern Minnesota

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 451...

    Valid 222252Z - 230045Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 451 continues.

    SUMMARY...The tornado threat is likely increasing across northern
    Minnesota as thunderstorms develop within a favorable environment.

    DISCUSSION...GOES visible and IR imagery show steady vertical growth
    of convection across north-central MN along and north of a warm
    front and to the west ahead of a cold front. Based on recent RAP
    forecast soundings, areas that have temperatures in the mid 70s or
    higher will likely support surface-based convection within the warm
    frontal zone where backed low-level winds are yielding effective SRH
    on the order of 200-250 m2/s2. Increasing low to mid-level ascent
    associated with the approach of an upstream perturbation and within
    the warm advection regime should promote continued storm maturation
    and coverage over the next couple of hours. Given that the number of
    candidate storms appears to be increasing within this narrow, but
    very favorable environment (best characterized by STP values between
    3-5), the potential for tornadoes - including strong tornadoes - may
    increase in the coming hours if one or more mature supercells can
    maintain sufficient residence time within this corridor.

    ..Moore.. 06/22/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7_vIfe6MWAsm-jNoH54pNk2Mk0CZKiiY8J3-s4H93j8lAQShv95yduPRQ6kEnOdgpIku5o0JL= z424AXJ2VvwEWz93OA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

    LAT...LON 47849331 47569477 47569552 47569605 47659636 47939650
    48449623 48889594 48949564 48869514 48549457 48479411
    48469355 48489322 48379297 48099294 47909312 47849331=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)