ACUS11 KWNS 221418
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221417=20
NDZ000-SDZ000-221545-

Mesoscale Discussion 1401
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0917 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Areas affected...south-central ND

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 221417Z - 221545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A lone elevated supercell along the North Dakota-South
Dakota border area might persist through midday, offering primarily
a large hail threat across south-central North Dakota. Uncertainty
with longevity of a single storm renders low confidence in
severe-thunderstorm watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...A compact elevated supercell has recently shown
right-mover tendency along the ND/SD border area, along with a
report of golf-ball size hail. While this storm is well to the
northwest of the surface front that extends from PIR to just north
of ABR, adequate elevated buoyancy/shear exists to maintain
supercell structure. The rightward-movement may aid in longer-term sustainability as it tracks farther east-northeast across the CAPE
gradient towards the larger buoyancy plume over eastern ND. 00Z HREF
had some UH signal for a single longer-track storm, albeit tracking
more northeast than east-northeast.

..Grams/Bunting.. 06/22/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4svWxc-lI0RUqiKaZbjRxqvtLDsLnpE6_TWvHN0HovIwO9QHnDDDT_M1CyJ7q2u3hkhUY4Ahp= TcBz96F-dJ7jMPHOjo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 46220183 46610142 46930055 47149946 47159872 46639858
46419894 46139962 45920053 45840167 46220183=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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