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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1399

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 22 08:04:10 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 220804
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 220803=20
    NYZ000-PAZ000-221000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1399
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0303 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

    Areas affected...Central to southern New York

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 220803Z - 221000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...An MCS with a history of producing wind damage is expected
    to gradually weaken over the next couple of hours, but a
    severe/damaging wind threat will likely persist for the short term.

    DISCUSSION...Over the past 2 hours, an initially disorganized band
    of thunderstorms has organized into an MCS with embedded bowing
    segments and a well-defined MCV noted in regional radar imagery.
    This MCS has a history of producing wind damage along with
    occasional severe gusts (a 50-knot gust was recently reported at
    KRME within one of the stronger bowing segments). Despite the
    unexpected well-organized nature of the MCS, it is quickly outpacing
    more appreciable buoyancy with downstream MUCAPE values falling into
    the 250-500 J/kg range across PA and southern NY. Consequently, the
    expectation is for this MCS to gradually weaken over the next few
    hours as it continues to move into a more stable air mass. However,
    strong deep-layer wind shear will help maintain MCS organization and
    the severe wind threat in the short term until weakening begins to
    occur. Watch issuance is currently not anticipated given the
    expected weakening, but convective trends will continue to be
    monitored.

    ..Moore/Mosier.. 06/22/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7Bqf3XK3N0qZ5ju9_DiuyDzJl5ODZ2zdB-U7orpCwlyemg6lmRweK2zuXgxJhFWm8ctb1iCFL= eHQhhDl5H9EU9Dc35U$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...

    LAT...LON 42387376 42187394 42027442 41977508 42007554 42027594
    42127616 42297630 42667634 43087631 43327613 43337593
    43287549 43327498 43337464 43207432 42627377 42387376=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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