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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1382

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jun 20 19:49:55 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 201949
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 201949=20
    NEZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-202215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1382
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0249 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

    Areas affected...portions of northeastern New Mexico into eastern Colorado...northwestern Kansas...and southwestern Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 201949Z - 202215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple of severe gusts may occur with dry downbursts or microbursts. Storms should be isolated and brief, precluding a WW
    issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Upper-support from a mid-level trough is grazing the
    central High Plains, where a deep and dry boundary layer exists and
    continues to mix. 18Z RAP forecast soundings depict boundary-layer
    mixing up to 500 mb in spots, with the 19Z mesoanalysis showing 9-10
    C/km 0-3km lapse rates already in place. Visible satellite and MRMS
    mosaic radar imagery show attempts at convective initiation and the
    current thinking is that additional storm development is possible by
    afternoon peak heating. Should a more robust updraft and associated
    storm core develop, rapid evaporative cooling may support a dry
    downburst or microburst, accompanied by strong to severe gusts.
    However, since storms may be quite brief and isolated in nature, the
    overall severe threat should be too localized to warrant a severe
    thunderstorm watch issuance.

    ..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/20/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9c65yEyZcBqqsfm3VuKR6S6l2HYnsJOtx1hg0YJjzeJmrnxRirGSJDksB_4Ghu5s-tg82_LbT= oqn5bccBA1U1UmihEo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 36740606 38480453 39990250 41270058 41380023 41239971
    40889955 39959990 38120123 35730369 34880477 34640528
    34720562 34980614 36740606=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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