ACUS11 KWNS 200353
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200353=20
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-200600-

Mesoscale Discussion 1379
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1053 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Dakotas into western Minnesota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445...446...

Valid 200353Z - 200600Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445, 446
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms will focus across portions
of the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota.

DISCUSSION...LLJ is increasing across eastern NE into eastern SD
where 1km VAD winds are now on the order of 45-55kt. Scattered
severe thunderstorms are propagating southeast across the eastern
Dakotas and low-level warm advection should encourage this activity
to spread into western MN, along/north of the surface boundary
draped across this region. Hail is likely occurring with the most
robust updrafts, and latest MRMS data suggests hail in excess of 1
inch is probable at times. Over the next several hours, LLJ will
gradually strengthen and shift into southern MN, and should
encourage continued southeast propagation into the upper MS Valley
region.

..Darrow.. 06/20/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-hIByglcsFBFsYbxRr5wPHO-h7tG6fDEdYwI94tCz4_OKCo7uwuC9I_yxjt5ujbOY1xDMtY4v= Y7qWzPm9GqY1-42G9E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 47469773 45089482 44279607 44729809 46679971 47469773=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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