ACUS11 KWNS 200307
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200307=20
NEZ000-200500-

Mesoscale Discussion 1378
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1007 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Areas affected...Central to southern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 200307Z - 200500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A lone supercell moving southward across central/southern
Nebraska will likely continue to pose a very large hail/severe wind
threat through at least 04-05 UTC. Watch issuance is currently not
anticipated given the localized/isolated nature of the storm.

DISCUSSION...A lone, but very intense, supercell has been ongoing
across central NE over the past few hours with a history of
producing 2+ inch hailstones and wind gusts upwards of 70 mph. The
recent onset/strengthening of the nocturnal jet (very apparent in
recent KUEX VWP observations) has regionally bolstered low-level SRH
(upwards of 700 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH), which is very favorable for
supercell maintenance despite the onset of nocturnal stabilization. Additionally, this cell is residing on the periphery of a reservoir
of colder temperatures aloft over central NE that are supporting
most-unstable lifted indices on the order of -8 to -10 C.
Consequently, this cell will likely continue to pose a threat for
very large hail (most likely 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) and 60-70
mph gusts for at least the next couple of hours as it approaches the
I-80 corridor. Diminishing mid-level flow with southward extent
should lead to a gradual reduction in storm organization/intensity
as the cell moves into south-central NE later this evening, though
the exact timing of storm demise remains uncertain given the
well-established mesocyclone.

..Moore/Smith.. 06/20/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_x10QO7Lva6PUSajvmOkKYJ26VXryOOWgOI1jJ8e9gA9R-HYYDIYFliqev1jrMkP83T9kxrB2= l7jV_Zs_0_G-qD3XxI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...

LAT...LON 41469905 41659891 41719866 41639836 40749781 40439778
40209800 40059828 40049856 40099887 40199914 40379920
40689922 41469905=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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