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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1373

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jun 19 22:31:18 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 192231
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 192230=20
    NCZ000-VAZ000-200030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1373
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0530 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

    Areas affected...Northern North Carolina and far southern Virginia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 192230Z - 200030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...A bowing line segment will likely pose a severe wind risk
    along the North Carolina/Virginia border region over the next few
    hours. Watch issuance is probable if the band remains south of WW
    442.

    DISCUSSION...A convective cluster has quickly organized into a
    compact bowing line segment across northern NC over the past 60-90
    minutes. TRDU velocity imagery shows a consolidating outflow
    boundary associated with this line as well as severe winds at about
    2-3 kft ARL, and GOES IR imagery shows rapid intensification via
    cooling cloud-top temperatures. This band will likely propagate to
    the east/northeast along a diffuse outflow boundary draped from
    eastern VA into northern NC. Ahead of the outflow, temperatures in
    the upper 80s and low 90s are supporting a regional buoyancy maximum
    (around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE) that, when coupled with 30-35 knots of
    effective bulk shear, should promote further intensification over
    the next couple of hours. Consequently, the severe wind threat
    should increase downstream along the VA/NC border. It remains
    unclear how far south the outflow will propagate as this
    intensification occurs, but watch issuance is probable if the band
    remains south of WW 442.

    ..Moore/Smith.. 06/19/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!44awM3i1QcdBpm9ihcAWmMMz-xQWwVgA5GQeF1cGfT2luv-IHXcfH9bv3zn6_mulgeSYCJX_x= ZiuxrenQrAsw5rgeAk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...

    LAT...LON 35997974 36057954 36297946 36487954 36627936 37037667
    36997640 36867597 36537585 36257576 36137563 35897567
    35787958 35867981 35997974=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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