ACUS11 KWNS 192126
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192125=20
NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-192330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1372
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0425 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 442...

Valid 192125Z - 192330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 442
continues.

SUMMARY...A broken line of thunderstorms with a history of producing
severe wind gusts will continue to push east across Maryland,
Delaware, and New Jersey through 23 UTC, and will likely continue
producing severe gusts/damaging winds.

DISCUSSION...Regional reflectivity and velocity imagery shows a
broken convective band with multiple embedded bowing structures
moving across the Mid-Atlantic. Surface observations over the past
hour have reported wind gusts between 55-66 mph, and multiple
reports of wind damage have also been noted. This convective band is
moving into the apex of a buoyancy ridge where MLCAPE is approaching
1500 J/kg (denoted in surface observations by temperatures in the
upper 80s to lower 90s, which may promote further intensification of
segments within the line. Regional VWPs downstream of the line
continue to sample strong (20-30 knot) line-orthogonal low-level
wind shear, which will also help maintain convective organization as
the band continues east. Wind gusts between 60-70 mph appear
probable along with the potential for swaths of wind damage. Latest
storm track estimates suggest this band will reach the coast between
the 23-00 UTC time frame, so the threat should persist for at least
two more hours.

..Moore.. 06/19/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6KD1YvnHJ2GKOIKP8z2_yY_eZ_hqSPzO4we9875twDOleT5DsKTc-LoIHvIe2XACsFfJTwVfm= n0wHYR4lLY6pxny5sM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

LAT...LON 38647682 39107648 39537614 39917584 40237559 40547420
40397395 40087394 39767407 39457427 39197456 38757493
38487497 38347522 38347561 38367600 38497648 38557671
38587684 38647682=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)