ACUS11 KWNS 191748
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191747=20
MSZ000-ARZ000-191915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1366
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Areas affected...central Arkansas into western Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 191747Z - 191915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon
across central/southern Arkansas into western Mississippi

DISCUSSION...Storms have developed along a trailing outflow boundary
across central Arkansas and into western Mississippi early this
afternoon. Shear is relatively weak (25 knots per LZK VWP) and will
be weakening through the day. However, instability is very strong
across the region (2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) which will support some
threat for isolated damaging wind gusts. A watch is unlikely due to
the unorganized and expected isolated nature of the threat this
afternoon and perhaps into the early evening hours.

..Bentley/Hart.. 06/19/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4041iluURdoRIb2mVbEnvCkawCP_iapPudDGzNPNHzRtzad06Nufu_EKdPhkLdJ9Jvgqhjxza= jB0vStUoKvdxvgOJZ0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON 34989428 34729222 33979049 33139012 33139116 33669326
33959393 34199434 34429444 34989428=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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