ACUS11 KWNS 191733
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191732=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-191900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1365
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Areas affected...northeast Georgia...western South Carolina and
western North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 191732Z - 191900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Low 70s dewpoints and mid 80s temperatures have yielded
1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE from northeast Georgia to western North
Carolina. This moderate shear and convergence within a lee trough
and uncapped environment should result in scattered thunderstorm
activity this afternoon. Around 30 knots of shear is being sampled
by the GSP VWP which will be sufficient for some storm organization
across western South Carolina and western North Carolina. Farther
south, much weaker shear is present (15 knots per FFC VWP).
Therefore, despite very strong instability, the severe weather
threat should remain more isolated.

..Bentley/Hart.. 06/19/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5iM7WwwknEXNTTKEmyq1f_NwgdYFbIdMvwRryfNrYrVc4WjON34nc-u_-vovoZCm7fNlGm-Y1= nTxJEqvHxHDGBkGbdg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...FFC...

LAT...LON 34268386 35198279 36388164 36628072 36648011 36477919
35547939 34228112 33558207 33438280 33548368 33798394
34268386=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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