1. Forum
  2. Fidonet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1314

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 16 20:50:08 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 162049
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 162049=20
    MNZ000-162215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1314
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0349 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

    Areas affected...east-central to northern MN

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 423...

    Valid 162049Z - 162215Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 423 continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat should increase into early evening as
    additional storms develop southward in central Minnesota and spread
    east.

    DISCUSSION...Initially low-topped convection has gradually deepened
    over the past hour. Cells near the surface cyclone in west-central
    MN have mainly had a brief tornado threat thus far. But an arcing
    line of towering CU towards Willmar ahead of the surface cold front
    suggests additional storms should form into the instability axis
    characterized by moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg.
    This activity should intensify into early evening and support a more
    sustained severe threat beyond brief tornadoes. The overall severe
    threat may peak into early evening with any sustained supercells
    that can interact with residual outflow from storms that have spread
    into west-central WI. MPX VWP data has sampled enhanced low-level
    SRH near this outflow.

    ..Grams.. 06/16/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6zvElD1fvnLUssUROKUlQti6SWd0ZSzBA4dUGWgg0VZXFMRcWTWksruKBfOjWRkmGUKhJWF_k= aXUVKNd2nwDcet1z6c$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

    LAT...LON 46569500 46879463 47279334 47329303 47219281 46939292
    46669272 46439272 46159290 45769304 45039312 44949354
    44979399 45179462 45589465 45969473 46249491 46569500=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)