AWUS01 KWNH 101637
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-102202-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0417
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1236 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Areas affected...East-Central TX...West-Central LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101636Z - 102202Z

Summary...Periodic training/repeating of showers and thunderstorms
with max rainfall rates of 2.5-3"/hr will drive an isolated flash
flooding risk this afternoon.

Discussion...Radar trends depict expanding convective coverage on
a west-east axis over portions of East-Central TX and West-Central
LA along a weak stationary front, downstream of a decaying MCS and
associated MCVs south of the DFW Metro. Maximum estimated rainfall
rates upwards of 2-2.5"/hour are noted within the most intense
cores per single source radar and MRMS.

Amid strong insolation, favorable midlevel lapse rates (7-7.5
degrees), and PWATs of 1.8-2" (around the 90th percentile per SPC
climatology), the environment is very favorable to support
efficient warm rain production in the developing activity along
the front, with hourly rainfall rates of 2.5-3"/hr possible at
times. While effective shear is generally quite weak across the
region, short term forecasts from the RAP suggest the approach of
the MCVs could promote a corridor of enhanced shear oriented
parallel to the boundary (20-30 kts) to support cell longevity and
periods of repeating/training.

As additional cells fill in and align with the upstream complex,
both the HREF and RRFS PMM suggest localized rainfall totals of
2-4" are possible along the front. While soil moisture anomalies
within the affected region are generally around normal, the
intense hourly rates combined with periods of repeating/training
will support an isolated flash flood risk going through the
afternoon.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-GW-sRjXvmcluTaZOuIQkmVsLvs49IQ7VNCkXws0PT4y3a1WTCHaS3MPRbXHgjN4wvBH= _vpIa9DIzXRzWB4E9fnD_No$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LCH...LIX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32299605 31999432 31389217 30929180 30579214=20
30639323 31019563 31459671 32069678=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 110109
FFGMPD
TXZ000-110600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0418
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
908 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Areas affected...middle Rio Grande Valley into south-central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110107Z - 110600Z

Summary...Flash flood potential from locally high rainfall rates
of 2 to 3 in/hr will set up over portions of the middle Rio Grande
Valley into south-central TX through ~06Z.

Discussion...GOES East infrared satellite and area radar mosaic
imagery showed an MCS advancing south and east across the middle
Rio Grande into northern Coahuila. Outflow was observed to be
primarily advancing southeastward into northern Mexico and down
the Rio Grande. The progressive nature of the outflow, advancing
~30 kt over the past 1-2 hours across Val Verde County, was
limiting the flash flood threat. However, short term rainfall
rates within the line of 1 to 1.5 inches in 30 minutes have been
reported at times since 22Z.

Southeast of the ongoing convective system was the presence of a
remnant, increasingly diffuse, outflow boundary that extended from
near San Antonio Bay WNW across the South Texas Plains toward Del
Rio. Some localized convective development along this boundary has
been noted across southeastern Val Verde into western Kinney
counties over the past 30-60 minutes. SPC mesoanalysis data from
00Z showed weak inhibition coupled with strong to extreme MLCAPE
values of 3000 to 4000 J/kg along and south of the boundary, with
lower CAPE values and modest to moderate inhibition to its north.
The diurnal cycle along with the approach of an upper level
shortwave over the western TX/Mexico border should support an
increase in southerly 850 mb winds through 03Z, along the
lower/middle Rio Grande Valley with recent RAP guidance supporting
20 to 30 kt. Increasing upper divergence and diffluence ahead of
the upper trough and low level convergence ahead of the advancing
MCS and increasing low level jet may encourage additional cell
development in advance of the progressive leading edge of the MCS
in the vicinity of the remnant surface boundary over southern TX.
The high CAPE/moisture environment along with relatively weak
deeper layer mean flow could support a few slow moving cells, to
be followed by a quick inch or two with the expected advancing
convective line. Localized flash flood potential could result for
portions of the middle Rio Grande Valley into south-central TX as
a result.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4MklZ87qO4ZtWTE7P1gBV5ZPAojTBMtx3s8cVwtbQq8-PgjFQSQJCplx4P8IQGoJHK7_= svy-UJ6zkcylj8Jc436UPjs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30510048 30429988 30069896 29599843 29109845=20
28599874 28119929 27970002 28100037 29050089=20
29320124 29800147 30130134 30460093=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 110530
FFGMPD
TXZ000-111100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0419
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
129 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Areas affected...Central to Southern Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110530Z - 111100Z

SUMMARY...Mature MCS likely to start weakening over next few hours
but continue to have embedded very intense rain rates up to 2"/hr
which may support localized totals to 3.5". Increasingly
scattered incidents of flash flooding are still possible through
morning.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um shows large MCC across the southeastern
Edwards Plateau heading into the more hydrologically sensitive
Balcones Escarpment. Cloud tops have been generally cooling on
the periphery of the cloud shield, though the center continues to
bubble with numerous over shooting tops colder than -75C. AMV/WV
suite shows the upper-level vorticity center is starting to carve
out some sort of broad closed low across the Pecos River Valley
with a upstream speed max at 500-300mb rounding the southwest
quadrant with a broad diffluent pattern noted over the core of the
MCC. As such, latent heat release from the strong convection and
solid outflow is rapidly strengthening an MCV just west of KSAT
along the Balcones Escarpment. Surface temperatures still remain
in the mid to upper 80s over mid 70s TDs supporting a narrow
corridor of remaining significant 3000 J/kg CAPEs to maintain
strong updrafts to further feed the MCV. Isallobaric wind
response to the MCV is resulting in strong convergence along and
downstream in the effective warm-advection wing of the cyclone
across the eastern Hill country providing solid convergence to
maintain scattered convection even where instability has reduced
substantially northward into the Heart of Texas. Given slightly
longer duration in weaker steering flow (within the southeast
quadrant of the developing closed low aloft further west),
localized pockets of 2-3" totals. Combine this with lowered FFG
and saturated upper soils from last night's MCS, will keep
potential for scattered possible incidents of flash flooding
through the late overnight period.

South of San Antonio into Southern Texas...
Rates will remain strongest with the higher unstable, greater deep
moisture (TPW to 2"+) along and southward along the bowing
segment. However, given it will continue to be bowing out likely
with some downward mixing from mid-level rear inflow jet...faster
forward progress should limit overall totals likely to 1-1.5" in
30-60 minutes. Given these rates will be over higher FFG of South
Texas, the potential for flash flooding will be likely limited to
urban centers and traditionally prone areas with those extreme
short-term bursts. So while it is not completely a non-zero
chance, the potential for FF, south of I-10 is much reduced.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7LVeQc-XfvkX2x1aP6ZjA0PlHnskdFZrUw5CB32dj7jBuqhwRe5fwyfdAeChSQL2edC2= pIIA93fktz2miJGTaGHvsvg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32229696 31989610 31209593 29959673 28039753=20
27499825 27379893 27529968 27819995 28969935=20
29889954 30909995 31569946 32059829=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 111823
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-120007-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0420
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
223 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Areas affected...Eastern TX...Far Western LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 111822Z - 120007Z

Summary...Additional showers and thunderstorms are developing
along and ahead of a persistent MCS in eastern TX. Training
segments ahead of the MCS, and overlapping of heavy rainfall will
drive additional scattered flash flooding this afternoon.

Discussion...A complex forecast continues this afternoon as an MCS
persists across Eastern TX, with leading thunderstorm segments
exhibiting training characteristics further north in the over
North TX into the Piney Woods Region of LA. Estimated hourly
rainfall rates varied somewhat within this activity, between
1.5-2"/hr (west of Lake Charles) and 3"/hr (near Shreveport).

This uptick in coverage and intensity is likely due to the
activity realizing a NW-SE oriented instability axis characterized
by 1000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE, 2-2.3" PWATS, and 20-30 kts of
southwesterly effective shear amid a variety of convergence
boundaries analyzed across the region.

Going forward, expect training and repeating of cells to drive
scattered instances of flash flooding this afternoon and evening.
Recent runs of the RRFS and HRRR maintain the best handle on the
general placement and structure of the ongoing activity, and
suggest additional rainfall totals of 2-5" can be expected.
Locally considerable flash flooding impacts cannot be ruled out
over areas which saw heavy rainfall earlier this morning.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-cARqypZkz9e3f5O0D3qEZqDVQmwcrIPTd9oAGPu9NHncpWNxbx1i_E0kQN5EzazxGkW= 7WjHDDAeBI9jgTXQLHRo-2w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33509527 33309407 32699359 31489332 29889297=20
29369356 29499436 31069518 31549669 32269715=20
33129645=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 112134
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-120315-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0421
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
534 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Areas affected...central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 112131Z - 120315Z

Summary...Slow moving storms atop portions of saturated soils are
expected to produce locally heavy rain in excess of 3-5 inches
over the next 3-6 hours for portions of central TX. Localized to
scattered flash flooding is expected to result.

Discussion...Water vapor imagery from GOES East showed a
south-north elongated mid to upper-level low over west-central TX
at 2115Z, slowly edging eastward. One of the embedded vorticity
maxima was located halfway between BPG and ABI and a small cluster
of slow moving thunderstorms has developed to its south and east.
A general decrease in low to mid-level cloud cover since 17Z has
helped with surface heating to the west of a broader shield of
cloud cover over eastern TX. SPC mesoanalysis data from 21Z showed
MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg over western and central TX with patchy
but decreasing CIN along and west of I-35.

RAP forecasts show the mid to upper-level trough and embedded
vorticity maxima will slowly translate eastward over the next
several hours. Additional convective development is likely over
west-central TX in the short term, and over northern portions of
the Edwards Plateau into portions of the I-35 corridor south of
Forth Worth beyond sunset. While PWs are not as high as those over
east TX, they are still about 1.5 to 2.0 inches (via SPC
mesoanalysis) and slow cell movement of 10 kt or less beneath the
upper low will promote locally high rainfall rates of 1-3 in/hr.

Heavy rain over the past 72 hours has increased soil moisture and
reduced FFG to less than 2.5 inches in 3 hours for many locations.
While the coverage of slow moving rain rates should remain
localized to scattered (at best), a fairly broad region of central
TX will be under threat of localized flash flooding with 2 to
3-hour totals of 3 to 5 inches possible through 03Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8DY1QUIkwGtfiWPwhIo6nk_rB7mBgFrNvxZnJl-CajmbjmT-CbydrISBr5Kv8TXYa7mI= cgbpiNR7yx5rI2ZIppSc60A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 33939736 33759676 33419632 32749625 31639662=20
30459774 30219949 30620036 31230061 31620069=20
32140051 33099941 33669825 33829780=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 120307
FFGMPD
TXZ000-120730-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0422
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1107 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Areas affected...central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 120304Z - 120730Z

Summary...Areas of heavy rain from slow moving thunderstorms are
likely to produce scattered areas of flash flooding across
portions of central TX through 07Z. The threat of flash flooding
is expected to increase toward the south with time and a few spots
of 3 to 6+ inches may lead to significant/considerable impacts.

Discussion...GOES East water vapor imagery showed the southern end
of a mid to upper-level low over west-central TX along the
northern end of the Edwards Plateau near the Colorado River at
0230Z. Radar imagery showed scattered thunderstorms from the
Edwards Plateau, northward to I-20 and as far east as I-35. MRMS
hourly rainfall was topping out near near 4 inches just north of
Waco while other cells to the west of I-35 and near I-20 showed
peak hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches. The environment as sampled by
the 00Z FWD RAOB and depicted on the 02Z SPC mesooanalysis showed
modest mid-level lapse rates of 6.2 C/km, tall/skinny CAPE with
500-1500 J/kg mixed layer instability and PWs that ranged from 1.7
to 1.9 inches across the region. The 00Z FWD sounding also showed
a wet-bulb zero height of 12.6 kft, indicative of the potential
for warm rain processes.

Over the next 3-5 hours, the southern lobe of the mid-level low
will slowly edge east while 925-850 mb layer flow increases from
southern to eastern TX into the 20 to 30+ kt range. Slow moving
cells will continue across the region with the slowest motions
closest to the mid-level low/trough placement...west of the
Metroplex to just north of the Edwards Plateau. By 06Z (1 AM CDT),
the increasing magnitude of the low level flow and low level
convergence along its leading edge should allow for expanding
convective development to focus farther southtoward San Antonio
while slowly expanding east across the I-35 corridor. Cells will
show a mixture of slow movement, back-building/training and
merging which will be capable of 2 to 3+ in/hr rainfall.

Given recent heavy rain and the expectation of localized
additional totals of 3 to 6+ inches through 07Z to 08Z, scattered
areas of flash flooding will be likely. 01Z and 02Z WoFS indicated
the greatest potential for 3+ inches of rain over the following 6
hours to be from near San Antonio, northward to just west of
Austin (50-80 percent probs). In addition, 90th percentile data
(reasonable worst case scenario) showed 10 to 12 inches of rain in
some of these same locations. While 10 to 12 inches of rain may be
a high bar to reach, even 50th percentile QPF values of 4-5 inches
from the WoFS is noteworthy. These rains may lead to locally significant/considerable flash flood impacts, especially given the
sensitive terrain of the TX Hill Country.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8YndtCGAs8KoCkAgOuZoFZR-gu-Fgd_InPfDR65XJRHG_XTfRp-j-Zl0TMax_ELjbBQb= oL9gywSBuQKOh6os3q1vc4A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33139750 32209651 30479643 29239715 28719821=20
28699924 29249992 30859989 32009901 32969858=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 120758
FFGMPD
TXZ000-121300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0423
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Areas affected...TX Triangle region into the Middle and Upper TX
Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 120755Z - 121300Z

Summary...Localized hourly rainfall totals as high as 3-4"
expected to continue into mid-morning. Numerous instances of flash
flooding are likely (some life threatening to locally extreme)
with additional localized totals of 6"+ expected (with 8"+ amounts
possible).

Discussion...Clusters of thunderstorms are in the process of
growing upscale into a mesoscale convective system (MCS) across
western portions of the TX Triangle region, from the San Antonio
area northeastward to near Waco. Storms are generally organizing
linearly along the southern and eastern periphery of the
established cold pool, where instability is greatest (1000-3000
J/kg of SBCAPE) with increasing low-level moisture transport (in
association with a strengthening nocturnal low-level jet with
925mb winds of 25-30 kts from the SSE). PWs have also increased to
a very impressive 1.9-2.3 inches, nearing daily max record levels
(using CRP sounding climatology as a proxy). Localized hourly
rainfall totals are estimated to be as high as 3-4" (per MRMS), a
resulting of training (as deep layer steering flow is oriented
nearly parallel to the cold pool boundary, due to the favorable
placement of a mid-upper level low) and warm rain processes
dominating (with wet bulb zero heights around ~13k feet). Storms
training from west-to-east (along the southern edge of the cold
pool) in the vicinity of San Antonio are particularly concerning,
given the flooding sensitivities of the metro area. Meanwhile, a
separate cluster of thunderstorms are growing in strength and
coverage near the Middle TX Coast (where PWs are maximized) due to
the strengthening low-level jet and associated warm-air
advection/isentropic ascent.

Storms should only continue to organize this morning, given the
very favorable aforementioned environment (with differential
divergence only increasing further over the next several hours).
Hi-res models (both the 00z HREF and experimental 18z REFS
ensembles) are in excellent agreement with both the expected
magnitudes and placement of QPF with relatively high probabilities
(40-60%) for both localized 5" exceedance (40-km neighborhood) and
1" exceedance overlap (10-100 km Ensemble Agreement Scale). This
corresponds with high FFG exceedance probabilities (up to 60-70%)
and a decent chance (up to 25-35%) of locally exceeding 100-yr
ARIs. Given this strong ensemble signal, localized 6"+ totals are
expected (and it is notable that hourly HRRR/RRFS runs have been
fairly consistent in depicting localized 8"+ totals, primarily
between the Corpus Christi and Houston metros where repeating
heavy rainfall is most likely). Numerous instances of flash
flooding are likely, some of which are expected to be life
threatening. Given the potential for 100-yr ARI exceedance,
extreme instances of localized flash flooding are possible (with
areas that do not typically flood at risk of experiencing flash
flooding).

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6DZOWV8JTor6182-ZxpoyfYaoFai91QBvupthK3DBZ1DNtJWghSvIB1PH6QwNHseSWq2= nCBg5hmAlLFXqBUNJ3MydBY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32049643 31979551 31329461 29789487 29099531=20
28689613 28389719 28619862 29179932 29799937=20
30279846 30989817 31929747=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 121301
FFGMPD
TXZ000-121802-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0424
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Areas affected...South-Central TX into the TX Piney Woods region

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 121300Z - 121802Z

Summary...Flash flooding (some of which could be life threatening)
will continue this morning as training thunderstorms containing
localized hourly rainfall rates of 3-4" an hour continue.

Discussion...An axis of training thunderstorms containing
localized 3-4" an hour rainfall rates continues over South-Central
TX along a well defined cold pool. Over the last 12 hours, these
cells have resulted in prolific heavy rainfall amounts across the
area, with localized amounts of 7-10" observed across
South-Central TX into the Central TX Coastline. As highlighted in
MPD 423, inflow characterized by 1500-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE, minimal
CIN, 2-2.3" PWATs will continue to foster new cells upwind of the
complex, which will train given the parallel orientation of the
steering flow to the cold pool.

As such, additional flash flooding is expected to continue through
this morning and afternoon. Of note is that the HRRR and RRFS --
which are handling the ongoing activity the best -- are around 1-2
hours too slow with propagating the cold pool southward compared
to radar observations, which could suggest the upper-end of their
forecast rainfall amounts through 18z (7-8") are overdone.
However, in light of ongoing impacts and potential for extreme
3-4" hour rainfall rates, any additional rainfall will quickly
translate to runoff. Life threatening flash flooding impacts
remain possible atop areas hit hard earlier today, and over
sensitive urban areas.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!__aj6jkVosj9m68XnO4KacRb0YmHUwUXRBlutGB_0mVEDydz3T5CKOUtxbmqM4UCF9Mf= XwAEkYe1oJwbzBpnrhBBWpA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31469471 30969391 29989405 29319464 28669558=20
28159725 28409872 28879936 29309932 29379876=20
29419765 29729705 30389676 31029624 31389561=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 122325
FFGMPD
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-130400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0425
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
724 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Areas affected...northeastern SD into southwestern MN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 122323Z - 130400Z

Summary...Localized flash flooding may occur over northeastern
portions of SD into southwestern MN through 04Z. Rainfall rates of
1-2 in/hr and localized totals of 2-3 inches are possible.

Discussion...Recent radar imagery through 23Z showed the recent
intensification of a thunderstorm over northern Spink County
(south of Aberdeen) along with scattered showers extending from
the eastern ND/SD border into central MN. These cells were
elevated, located north of a wavy quasi-stationary front that
extended westward into eastern SD, then southwestward into
northwestern NE. Lift in advance of a 700-500 mb shortwave trough
(extending from northeastern MT into western SD) and advection of
low level moisture via a 20-25 kt 850 mb jet has allowed for an
increase in MUCAPE north of the front, aiding in the recent
intensification.

850 mb winds are forecast to further strengthen a bit to near 30
kt by 03Z from the eastern SD/NE border and northward to the
front, according to recent RAP forecasts, allowing for potential
upstream thunderstorm development. While instability will likely
remain a modest 500-1000 J/kg over northeastern SD via short term
HRRR/RAP forecasts, an observed GPS PW just east of the northern
SD/MN border was 1.5 inches at 22Z, near the climatological max at
ABR for mid-June. The mean steering flow of cells is expected to
be from the WSW to W, roughly parallel to the frontal boundary to
the south, which will support repeating rounds of heavy rain from
west to east. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr may occur at times and
there will be the potential for 2-3 inches of rain through 04Z.

This rain may overlap with locally hydrologically sensitive
regions, including urban centers and portions of Brown and
Marshall counties, which received locally heavy rain (up to 4
inches) earlier today. Localized flash flooding could result from
parts of northeastern SD into far southwestern MN through 04Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!77HmyaFbLjzuYrBy_F49UY2RfE7-0A4T8l6jh-1VIIl5o8lWbiugMoVq4hnScUlbA41D= MWbMjxF4ZU_-LNuFLolp_Fw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...FGF...FSD...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45989717 45839581 45499528 44929549 44709668=20
44639830 44569985 44980071 45630060 45959913=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 130701
FFGMPD
WIZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-131200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0426
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Areas affected...south-central MN and some surrounding portions of
far northeast SD, southeast ND, and western WI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 130700Z - 131200Z

Summary...Bands of slow moving heavy rainfall with localized
hourly totals of 1-2" may result in 5"+ totals through 7am CDT.
Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are likely (and
may be locally significant).

Discussion...Bands of slow moving heavy rainfall are taking shape
early this morning across portions of far northeastern SD and
south-central MN, in response to strengthening isentropic ascent
(concentrated on 295-300K surface) amid veering low-level (925-850
mb) flow. While the low-level jet is actually expected to weaken a
bit over the next several hours (from 30-35 kts to 25-30 kts), the
moisture transport (and more importantly the resulting isentropic
ascent) will conversely become stronger and more pronounced (as
the flow orients perpendicular to the isobars on the 300K
isentropic surface). The resulting conditional symmetric
instability (CSI) is driving the convective heavy rainfall threat
this morning (even though MUCAPE of 250-500 J/kg is underselling
the threat) with anomalously high wet bulb zero heights (~11k
feet), 850 mb mixing ratios (~10 g/kg), and precipitable water
(~1.5") all near the 90th percentile (per MPX sounding
climatology).

Hi-res CAMs have so far struggled to appropriately model what is
ongoing, as impressive slow moving bands of heavy rainfall are
indicated to be producing 15-min totals nearing 1" and hourly
totals approaching 2" (per MRMS estimates). While modest low-level
flow is producing these bands, the flow aloft within the layer of
skinny CAPE from 700-500 mb is from the west at only about 10-20
kts. These slow moving heavy rainfall bands will tend to train
form west-to-east (while gradually lifting north a bit), and while
some of the CAMs do hint at localized 2" hourly totals (primarily
the ARW2 and NAM-nest) they're likely underestimating the scale of
the potential (given ongoing observational trends, which are
occurring meaningfully south and east of the main model signal).
Even still, the post-processed statistical data from the 00z HREF
is hinting at the relative high-end potential from this event with
40-km neighborhood 6-hr probs for 3" and 5" exceedance of 25-45%
and 5-15%, respectively. This corresponds with relatively high
odds of 6-hr FFG exceedance (25-35%), as well as a chance (20-40%)
of 10-yr ARI exceedance and a slight chance (up to 10%) for 100-yr
ARI exceedance. Overall the HREF solutions are considered to be
underestimating the threat, and therefore isolated to scattered
instances of flash flooding are considered likely (and may be
locally significant, given that training 1-2"/hr rainfall rates
may result in localized 3-6 hour totals of 5"+).

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9GeO2Y_p77Jj9o2SbODDn2-XHhR37R_OH3EPWgoHh1cIuV3EhMFJSjsO1IGuvGB0qT-J= TYOT9z_2w22QGOGiRuATaDY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...ARX...BIS...DLH...FGF...FSD...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 46489497 46459367 46079266 45309223 44499244=20
44089316 43979412 44399572 45099743 45719854=20
46389765 46459629=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 131117
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-131716-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0427
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
717 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Areas affected...southern Louisiana, far southeast Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 131116Z - 131716Z

Summary...A cluster of slow-moving storms have produced estimated
4-6 inch rainfall totals near Lafayette, Louisiana this morning.=20
This cluster is expected to very slowly evolve within a very
unstable airmass, posing a risk for flash flooding through
17Z/noon CDT.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms have managed to evolve into a
persistent, slow-moving cluster near Lafayette this morning. The
storms are embedded in deep south-southwesterly steering flow of
around 20-25 knots, but have managed to backbuild locally due to
1) confluent 850mb wind fields evident via objective analyses, 2)
a weak surface boundary extending from near Galveston, TX
east-northeastward through Lafayette to near Hammond, LA, and 3)
strong instability/weak inhibition along and south of that subtle
boundary. Impressive moisture/instability content within the
pre-convective airmass (2000 J/kg MLCAPE, 2 inch PW values) were
contributing to impressive local rain rates exceeding 2.5
inches/hr at times. With 4-6 inches of rain having already
fallen, some impacts are likely with the ongoing activity in the
short term.

Through 17Z/noon CDT, the reinforcement of a surface/outflow
boundary near the convection (due to cold pool formation) will
likely enable continued development and training of cells. Some
propagation of this cluster is expected, and both westward and
eastward development of storms toward areas near Lake Charles and
near/south of Baton Rouge can be expected. Another 3-5 inches of
rainfall can be expected beneath the heavier, slower-moving
thunderstorm bands as well. Locally higher amounts cannot be
ruled out in a few spots.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8brUbtbNUCQexOiyQDMY6PJWizYuk4hFh28TcfdfEDKSg8D2K1Jtq_Jy87nnWU4uA2ZX= aECCbvGA9w68lP9Pz_sOiSM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 30509132 30289060 29989016 29599001 29229034=20
29169115 29539237 29659388 29469442 29779450=20
30179381 30479252=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 131709
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-132137-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0428
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
108 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Areas affected...far southwest Louisiana, southeast Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 131707Z - 132137Z

Summary...A few instances of flash flooding are possible for the
next 2-4 hours (through 21Z) as slow-moving storms produce 1-3
inch/hr rain rates across the discussion area.

Discussion...Scattered convection has developed in earnest across
areas near Beaumont and Lake Charles over the past couple hours.=20
These storms are in a weakly sheared environment, with slow
movement amid 2 inch PW values and 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE promoting
rain rates of 1-2.5 inches/hr per MRMS. Storms are focused along
a remnant outflow boundary extending from west-southwest to
east-northeast across the region and a newer, stronger outflow
boundary from south-central Louisiana that was currently near Lake
Charles and propagating westward. These outflow boundaries will
continue to encourage deep moist convection over the next 2-4
hours over wet/sensitive ground conditions from prior rainfall
over the past 48 hours. 2-2.5 inch/hr FFG thresholds are likely
to be exceeded at times in this regime, and additional impacts to
metro areas in the discussion area (i.e., Lake Charles, Beaumont,
and eventually Houston) cannot be ruled out.

At some point beyond 21Z/4p CDT, the expectation is that
widespread convective overturning may temper the extent and
intensity of convection along with resultant rain rates. Storms
will mainly be outflow dominant given the weak low-level and deep
shear across the discussion area. Between no

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!80gK5CFsjzotVDDdFn8D2Rins2BSrPtr11c-IPaZKv_A4fvVYQKUAG9nn1nUANK6ATxS= heW7p2APPVoX0sepZe4_Uvg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31109459 31089369 30649264 30059260 29659409=20
29089601 29369649 30109621 30639552=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 131730
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-132137-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0428
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
130 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Areas affected...far southwest Louisiana, southeast Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 131707Z - 132137Z

Summary...A few instances of flash flooding are possible for the
next 2-4 hours (through 21Z) as slow-moving storms produce 1-3
inch/hr rain rates across the discussion area.

Discussion...Scattered convection has developed in earnest across
areas near Beaumont and Lake Charles over the past couple hours.=20
These storms are in a weakly sheared environment, with slow
movement amid 2 inch PW values and 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE promoting
rain rates of 1-2.5 inches/hr per MRMS. Storms are focused along
a remnant outflow boundary extending from west-southwest to
east-northeast across the region and a newer, stronger outflow
boundary from south-central Louisiana convection that was
currently near Lake Charles and propagating westward. These
outflow boundaries will continue to encourage deep moist
convection over the next 2-4 hours over wet/sensitive ground
conditions from prior rainfall over the past 48 hours. 2-2.5
inch/hr FFG thresholds are likely to be exceeded at times in this
regime, and additional impacts to metro areas in the discussion
area (i.e., Lake Charles, Beaumont, and eventually Houston) cannot
be ruled out.

At some point beyond 21Z/4p CDT, the expectation is that
widespread convective overturning may temper the extent and
intensity of convection along with resultant rain rates. Storms
will mainly be outflow dominant given the weak low-level and deep
shear across the discussion area.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4NA3V57CdURoU6XpbOVafLG8lyBrHSX9lipqQZqJfcO7ZWzG0AUpCFjUFx12gyOCBcC2= 7pKoF1EN3kmMjh9hPOIskg4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31109459 31089369 30649264 30059260 29659409=20
29089601 29369649 30109621 30639552=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 140030
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-140559-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0429
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
829 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Areas affected...Central Appalachians....Southern DelMarVa

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140029Z - 140559Z

Summary...Periods of cell training along an increasingly defined
cold pool should maintain the threat of scattered flash flooding
through this evening.

Discussion...Radar depicts an west-east axis of showers and
thunderstorms growing upscale along an increasingly defined cold
pool bisecting Central Virginia. Recent single source and MRMS
hourly rainfall estimates show increasing rainfall efficiency
within the most robust convective cores -- with localized 2-3" an
hour rates noted over the last 30 minutes.

Inflow characterized by 1.7-2.1" PWATs, 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE
(with minimal CIN), and deep warm cloud layers of 13,000-14,000
feet, and 20-25 kts of effective shear will support additional
convective clusters which could train/repeat given the parallel
orientation of the steering flow to the emerging cold pool.

Through 6z, the 18z HREF (supported by recent runs of the HRRR and
RRFS) suggest the main corrior of concern will remain over
North-Central Virginia. Probabilities of 6 hour QPF exceeding the
10-100 year ARI in this region range from 20-30% and 10-25%,
respectively. Additional scattered instances of flash flooding
remain possible, some of which could be locally considerable.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7_9Af7xbdhiiX_t57DrbKE_Ucp1kkX7SM1qs9rix-DGVcyHJ3H5Xcovhyg8hv0ba5oFU= rHwTqm5eSaQzI7FtzDRfk1c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38747781 38657683 38237636 37597677 37377741=20
37327913 37728063 38278071 38498024 38487892=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 140302
FFGMPD
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-140900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0430
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1101 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Areas affected...Central AR into northwest MS and southwest TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 140300Z - 140900Z

Summary...Localized hourly totals of 1-2" expected to continue
through the overnight hours, and training/repeating elements may
lead to additional localized totals of 2-4" (on top of areas that
have already seen as much as 2-4" in recent hours). Isolated to
scattered instances of flash flooding are likely.

Discussion...A deep layer (sfc-250 mb) cyclone is nearly
stationary this evening over MO/IL, with deep layer cyclonic flow
organizing bands of showers and thunderstorms along the southern
periphery of the circulation. While heavy rainfall has generally
been progressive within 20-30 kts of steering flow (850-300 mb),
recent convective initiation to the southwest and south of the low
center (concentrated mostly across northwestern and central AR) is
allowing for localized elements of west-to-east training. This is
resulting in localized hourly totals of up to 1-2" (with the
highest totals confined just to the southwest of Memphis at the
time of writing), per MRMS estimates. Low-level moisture transport
is already on the rise in this area (mainly at 850 mb from the
WSW), and should only become more robust closer to the surface
over the next 3-6 hours (with strengthening isentropic upglide
anticipated along the 300K surface as winds near 925 mb veer to
the WSW and increase from 10-20 kts to 20-25 kts). In addition,
the mesoscale environment is characterized by precipitable water
values of 1.6-1.8" (and expected to increase to 2.0"+, between the
90th percentile and max moving average per LZK sounding
climatology), ML CAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg, and effective bulk shear
of 25-35 kts.

While the steering flow should continue to favor localized
training and repeating of convection, upwind propagation vectors
are also weak and variable in the vicinity of east-central AR into
northwest MS and southwest TN. This is precisely where localized
Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) exceedance is most likely to occur, as
3-6 hour FFGs are as low as 1.5-2.5" (and in reality are likely
even lower now, as this guidance applies to 00z and localized 2-4"
totals have occurred since then with some local FLASH CREST unit
streamflow response suggesting some minor flood impacts already
ongoing). Looking ahead to the next 3-6 hours, additional heavy
rainfall is expected along the base of the aforementioned deep
low, with impacts most likely from Little Rock to Memphis and
surroundings. Recent HRRR runs are in good agreement with this
corridor, suggesting additional localized totals of 2-4" are
possible (with continued potential for hourly totals up to 1-2").
Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are likely.

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-Yz3QWHgHl8yBgvhFJmwIaKWJ0qxpj3iJlH-l0SDTdlngN8Fjm5OriqreI__9qXNVtfm= Vp1F9_itIZI_38LuWxyjYIA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35608908 34848878 34278981 34429176 35039300=20
35379313 35579255 35499078=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 140957
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-141500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0431
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
556 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Areas affected...south-central KS into north-central OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140955Z - 141500Z

Summary...Additional localized totals of 2-5" may result in
isolated to scattered flash flooding through mid-morning.

Discussion...A maturing MCS is forward propagating
south-southeastward across portions of eastern KS this morning,
producing hourly totals as high as 2.0-2.5" (with the help of
convective initiation out ahead of the system). Farther south into north-central OK, convection has managed to initiate within a
moderately capped environment (CIN 75-150 J/kg) due to weak
moisture convergence along a quasi-stationary front. These storms
are nearly stationary within weak steering flow, producing
impressive localized hourly totals of up to 2-3". The mesoscale
environment downstream of the MCS and in the vicinity of the OK
storms is characterized by SBCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, precipitable
water values of 1.6-1.8" (above the 90th percentile and near the
max moving average, per OUN sounding climatology), and effective
bulk shear of 15-20 kts.

Although shear should be a somewhat limiting factor for storm
organization, the mature MCS and associated MCV will likely
continue to be sufficient forcing for continued longevity, given
observational trends (despite MCS maintenance values of only
20-40%, largely owing to the lack of shear and deep layer mean
flow). CAMs are somewhat supportive of additional rainfall (while
largely struggling with the OK convective initiation, in
particular), as 06z HREF 40-km neighborhood probabilities for 3-hr
and 6-hr FFG exceedance are around 15-25% (thru 15z). Additional
localized totals of 2-5" are possible, and much of that is likely
to fall within a period of only 1-2 hours.

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-EyPxtMb02-tfX3vI-GrGhECHwGv1qVVOS1xOqmQs1r62_TM2QRzjSbqKtnHM2KrdlwP= hbJ4ov8oVxfa1hVCo0dc5VQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39499929 39059834 38449758 37739689 36769642=20
36129658 35469786 35519883 36539919 37410063=20
37950082 38370048 39469980=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 141310
FFGMPD
TXZ000-141708-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0432
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
909 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Areas affected...portions of southeast Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141308Z - 141708Z

Summary...A mesoscale complex has organized near Galveston and
continues to propagate slowly westward toward areas near/south of
Houston. These trends should continue over the next 2-4 hours or
so, posing an isolated flash flood risk through 17Z/noon CDT today.

Discussion..Convection that had initially formed over along and
just offshore of the Texas coast has matured and formed a
westward-moving cold pool that currently extends from near
Downtown Houston southward to Lake Jackson. The storms are
ingesting air from a very buoyant, weakly capped pre-convective
environment (3000 J/kg MLCAPE, 2 inch PW). This moisture-rich
environment and weak shear has fostered development of
slow-moving, outflow dominant convection to materialize with spots
of 2 inch/hr rain rates recently observed near Galveston and
League City.

Models/observations suggest that the westward-moving outflow
associated with this complex will be the primary driver of any
new/sustained convective development over the next 2-4 hours.=20
This new development - along with areas/spots of 2-3 inch/hr rain
rates should gradually develop westward and northwestward into
additional inland parts of southeast Texas. The combination of
wet soils from recent rainfall and urbanized/sensitive areas near
Houston Metro suggest that flash flash flooding could occur on an
isolated basis through the morning as convection evolves.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5M8thc-9DB8NgB6aCJ9ZMPwCmdV4KZC9i2KU6umfjdXrayixQXtZgyw8Vhawxm3tPP6V= xK-ej0evGK5uVnvu1-xkq1Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30959483 30359384 29629406 28789549 28989649=20
29759671 30389640 30799587=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 141747
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-142300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0433
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
146 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern Oklahoma through
central/southwest Arkansas and far northeast Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141746Z - 142300Z

Summary...An intensifying convective complex over eastern Oklahoma
will sweep through the discussion area and pose a risk of areas of
1-2 inch/hr rain rates at times. These rates are expected to
cause localized/isolated flash flood issues through 23Z/6p CDT.

Discussion...Over the past couple hours, a linear MCS has
materialized over eastern Oklahoma from near Muskogee to near Ada.
Cells within this complex were moving east-southeastward at
approximately 25-30 knots, which has mostly kept peak rain rates
at around 1-2 inches/hr (just shy of FFG thresholds) so far this
afternoon.

As storms migrate downstream through the afternoon and early
evening, a few considerations for increasing flash flood potential
exist, including: 1) deepening convection ahead of the complex,
which should allow for a few areas of mergers to prolong/increase
rain rates above 2 inches/hr and 2) the orientation of the complex
itself - which may allow for localized training on occasion. FFG
thresholds should be breached in a few areas of this complex moves
through, with low-lying/sensitive areas of particular concern for
flash flooding.

Over time, a few of these storms may reach areas just north/east
of Little Rock that experienced 3-5 inch rainfall totals just a
few hours ago. These areas may also be locally sensitive and
prone to flooding.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9G_BsSIDoLxJhPZvUM2AVsLtHQKMlkdfbVjGW2Y7ZxpnETDMTbdPkk_lgO0wbWLHQRxQ= wR-NO6I2WyRbqVH8_rCudB8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36119511 36059402 35539176 34769128 33739158=20
32959393 33609641 34339741 35069773 35569601=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 141832
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-150030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0434
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
231 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the OH Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 141830Z - 150030Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving showers and thunderstorms with high rainfall
rates will likely support isolated to scattered areas of flash
flooding going through the early evening hours.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E visible satellite imagery along with area
radars are showing a continued expansion of locally heavy showers
and thunderstorms across large areas of the OH Valley, but with a
bit more of a focus along a quasi-stationary frontal zone that is
draped across the region.

MLCAPE values have risen to as high as 1500 J/kg along and just
south of this front extending from southeast IL through southern
IN. Shear parameters are minimal, but the atmosphere is very moist
with PWs of 1.6 to 1.8+ inches, and so the convective cells are
capable of producing very high hourly and sub-hourly rainfall
rates.

The convection over the next few hours should generally continue
to expand given a combination of the diurnal heating
cycle/boundary layer instability, and also the slow approach of a
wave of low pressure which is gradually traversing the front from
the west. Cyclonic low-level flow into the aforementioned front
should promote an environment where convection is at least
relatively focused along and near this boundary. However, the
steering flow is very weak with the 850/300 mb layer mean flow
generally near or under 10 kts.

This will promote slow cell-motions, and with the high moisture
profiles in place, some convective cells may be capable of
producing as much as 1.5+ inches in 30 minutes. Some spotty storm
totals of as much as 2 to 4+ inches will be possible going through
early this evening. The 12Z HREF and the 06Z REFS both depict
rather elevated probabilities (locally 40 to 50+ percent) for
seeing the 3-hour FFG exceeded across especially central/southern
IN and parts of west-central OH given the moist antecedent
conditions, and this area in particular may see notable concerns
for flash flooding going through early this evening.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9JncnfDaR554Ytuw3YH9d_QzOUpBLRPoQ0NYmpuq_QgbwPWIy3fQLmbXZ_sBueXXpHro= dRUrS7r6hYWf6lUhB30B6RU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...PAH...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40528323 40048239 39208261 38628387 37978618=20
37308782 37438874 38108915 38828893 39508787=20
40188558=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 141942
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-150140-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0435
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
340 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Areas affected...Upper OH Valley...Central
Appalachians...Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 141940Z - 150140Z

SUMMARY...Scattered areas of flash flooding are expected to occur
this afternoon and into the evening as heavy showers and
thunderstorms develop and expand in coverage. Locally significant
urban flash flooding impacts will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a quasi-stationary
front draped across the Mid-Atlantic region and stretching back up
across the higher terrain of the central Appalachians and the
upper OH Valley. A substantial amount of moisture is in place
along this front with PWs in general across the region running
nearly 2 standard deviations above normal.

In fact, the 12Z RAOB data from KPIT and KIAD showed very moist
soundings with PWs of 1.79" and 2.01" respectively. Tall, skinny
CAPE profiles were noted as well, and thus the environment is
conducive for highly efficient rainfall processes that could yield
extreme rainfall rates as convection develops and expands in
coverage over the next several hours. The airmass along and
adjacent to the front continues to destabilize with the diurnal
heating cycle, and MLCAPE values have risen to as much as 1000 to
1500 J/kg on the warm side of the front across central WV and also
across central to southeast VA.

The increasingly concentrated axis of moisture and instability
along and near the front, along with areas of locally more focused
surface convergence should favor the regional development and
expansion of heavy showers and thunderstorms over the next several
hours. Some modest shear profiles and upper-jet aided
ascent/divergence over the region should also facilitate this
evolution with eventually broken clusters of convection
materializing.

Near-term convective development over the upper OH Valley and
central Appalachians is expected with the aid of the front and
also orographic ascent. However, by late this afternoon and this
evening, the front itself from the MD/WV Panhandles on down
through northern/central VA and eventually the Tidewater/Hampton
Roads area of southeast VA should become quite active with
convection impacting these areas.

Rainfall rates may reach 2 to 3 inches/hour with the stronger
storms given the moist/efficient environment that is in place, and
some localized storm totals of 3 to 5+ inches are going to be
possible given the relatively slow cell-motions that are expected.

A combination of urban sensitivities and moist antecedent
conditions in general will combine with the additional rainfall
potential to support a notable threat of flash flooding going into
the evening hours with at least scattered areas of flash flooding
likely. Locally significant urban flash flooding impacts will also
be possible if these heavier rains focus into the urban corridors.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9ZdF_BXZC-jracFekueYoO9JkMdHqj64jPXNE2vLfY8qIpgt_iSS3p16xpQ-62hCZ9or= Cbc1e65bAH6nU7jykWE8FoU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...GSP...LWX...PBZ...RAH...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40847927 40557796 39957700 38917648 36987556=20
36267629 36207854 35917986 35748123 36088172=20
36988074 37918036 38638084 39678195 40568123=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 142144
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-150043-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0436
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
543 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Areas affected...New Orleans Metropolitan Area

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 142143Z - 150043Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms impacting the broader
New Orleans metropolitan area over the next few hours will
continue to support an urban flash flood threat into the early
evening hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows an axis of heavy
showers and thunderstorms moving into the New Orleans metropolitan
area including adjacent suburbia. The activity is focusing along
the leading edge of an outflow boundary while interacting with a
very moist and unstable airmass pooled across southeast LA.

MLCAPE values of as much as 2000 to 3000 J/kg are in place with
PWs of 2.0 to 2.25 inches. This suggests very high rainfall rate
potential with these storms with potentially 1.5 inches of rain in
as little as 30 minutes. Over the next few hours, slow
cell-motions may support some spotty totals of 2 to 4+ inches.

The activity may last into at least the early evening hours based
on the latest HRRR and RRFS guidance, and given the urban
sensitivities around New Orleans, these rains may result in
additional areas of urban flash flooding heading through the early
evening hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6AjeOYokZNcdYcJYvTHWzjBxEVMybvOpr2D-G2Kc7z39S4JR4hRXr2MRtCySQKr3qrlR= OUsTwSDuKpijSakRtkt_Ea0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 30579003 30408947 29748979 29629064 29999098=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 142352
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-150300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0437
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
751 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the Lower MS Valley and the Mid-South

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 142350Z - 150300Z

SUMMARY...Multiple bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms will
continue over the next few hours across portions of the Lower MS
Valley and Mid-South from colliding outflow boundaries. A few
additional areas of flash flooding will be possible this evening
as a result.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with
radar and surface data shows elongated bands of heavy showers and
thunderstorms impacting areas of the Lower MS Valley and the
Mid-South as convection continues to develop and locally expand in
coverage as a result of colliding outflow boundaries.

Areas that have not seen much in the way of convective overturning
continue to be quite moist and unstable, with MLCAPE values as
high as 2000 to 3000 J/kg with PWs near 2 inches. This is
especially the case over northern MS and some parts of northern AL
where the low-level flow is also rather convergent given the
proximity of low pressure farther north over the Lower OH Valley.

Expect heavy showers and thunderstorms to persist for a few more
hours before the instability becomes sufficiently exhausted for
the activity to begin weakening. Rainfall rates in the short-term
may reach 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour with some spotty totals of 3 to
4+ inches where any cell-training occurs. Radar does show some
cell-training occurring right now across areas of northern MS and
northwest AL. This may foster a few isolated areas of flash
flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_aygwZKEUQDi2lWciSkRwiM81719tnQGNxzH6LpTDTZVhG8UNvyL6slKlZ9rBdF7FUHH= yOcagm4zrLtMjFtP3xtE32w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...LZK...MEG...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34728706 34558587 34098583 33588679 33228920=20
32809344 32969464 33489445 34139182 34518907=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 150134
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-150632-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0438
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
933 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the OH Valley...Central Appalachians
and Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 150132Z - 150632Z

SUMMARY...Additional areas of slow-moving showers and
thunderstorms are expected to continue to develop and locally
persist into a portion of the overnight period. Given the high
rainfall rate potential and slow cell-motions, additional
scattered areas of flash flooding are expected.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a quasi-stationary
front still draped across the Mid-Atlantic region and stretching
back up across the higher terrain of the central Appalachians and
the upper OH Valley. 00Z RAOB data and the latest RAP analysis
shows a substantial amount of moisture still remaining in place
with PWs locally over 1.75 inches and with a moderate amount of
instability pooled along the front with MLCAPE values of near 1500
J/kg.

Areas of central to northern VA are generally the most unstable,
and there are pockets of locally strong low-level convergence near
the front that should help maintain the ongoing convective threat
across the region for a few more hours. Local orographics near the
Blue Ridge and also deeper back into the high terrain of the
central Appalachians will also facilitate areas of ascent for
convection to redevelop and locally persist.

Expect areas of slow-moving showers and thunderstorms to still be
capable of producing rainfall rates of up to 2 inches/hour, and
the slow cell-motions may yield some additional localized totals
of 3 to 4+ inches. The most recent HRRR/RRFS guidance generally
supports this.

Given the additional rainfall potential and moist antecedent
conditions overall, there should tend to be scattered areas of
additional flash flooding going through the remainder of the
evening and a part of the overnight period. This will include a
localized urban flash flood concern as well.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!41lsI1pVeWgxcenTmksVQkJa-Gx7jUYJ3WmjT5keJQ2IJzo7oQv4M3UUkDy6rMYebUVi= tgXqlfuhFeYSaH9B8JzVrwY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40678047 40567966 39947837 38797727 38387668=20
38077618 37737574 37427585 37347631 37577803=20
38087958 38778059 39858121 40338116=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 150338
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-150940-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0439
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1137 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Areas affected...much of north-central and northeast OK and
portions of far south-central and southeast KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 150340Z - 150940Z

Summary...Scattered instances of flash flooding are likely, driven
by 3-6 hour rainfall totals of 3-6" (with the potential for
localized 6"+ totals over portions of north-central OK).

Discussion...Convection has initiated and gradually proliferated
over the past few hours over portions of north-central OK and far
south-central and southeast KS, in advance of a slow moving
shortwave/remnant mesoscale convective vortex (MCV). The region is
situated within an area of favorable northwest flow aloft, and the shortwave/MCV is providing 30-40 kts worth of deep layer (0-6 km)
shear for convective organization and storm longevity. A
substantial gradient of ML CAPE (500-3500 J/kg) is also situated
over the area, paralleling a quasi-stationary surface boundary
(quite evident in the surface thetaE gradient) that is draped from
NNW to SSE from north-central OK southward to southeast OK.
Tropospheric moisture content remains very highly anomalous,
ranging from 1.7-2.1" (near the max moving average, per OUN
sounding climatology). This is supporting highly efficient
instantaneous rainfall rates of up to 3-5"/hr (per MRMS
estimates), due to wet bulb zero heights around 13k-14k feet (also
near the max moving average, per OUN sounding climatology). This
is already allowing for localized hourly totals of 1-2" with
ongoing convection (with modest cell motions of 10-20 kts), but
these hourly totals could start to approach 3-4" as convection
begins to backbuild towards the northwest. This backbuilding will
be facilitated by a strengthening, veering low-level jet (LLJ),
resulting in idealized isentropic lift near the 305K surface
(along with warm air advection and increasing ML CAPE through the
overnight hours).

Hi-res CAMs are overall in quite good agreement concerning the
convective evolution and resulting QPF overnight, suggesting
localized 3-6" totals (and possibly even exceeding 6" in an
isolated spot or two in north-central OK). While totals in this
range may only meet or slightly exceed 6-hr Flash Flood Guidance
(FFG), much of this QPF is likely to fall within a 3-hr period
(per 00z HREF 40-km neighborhood 3"/3-hr exceedance probabilities
of 20-50% between 06-09z). Between the 3-hr and 6-hr expected
totals, probabilities of exceeding FFGs (per the HREF 40-km
neighborhood exceedance probs) are between 30-60%. While it is
likely that the most extreme totals will stay north of OKC and
west of Tulsa (mitigating the impacts to large population
centers), localized 5" exceedance (per HREF probs) is suggested to
be as high as 25-35% (corresponding to 10-15% odds of 100-yr ARI
exceedance). Experimental hourly RRFS runs since 18z have also
consistently depicted this potential, concerningly even suggesting
the potential for 7-9" localized totals. Given the very favorable
environment for training heavy rainfall and the consistent hi-res
signals, scattered instances of flash flooding are considered
likely (with localized considerable flash flooding possible).

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8SNRHZXJXg0ay_q7bKUjXWdZzvQ81ZhZa_jfasKpx8q8VYKBmVVDcxyVfmdYEvxuwaOn= VuUyS1t-V0w2tEB3i08wGVc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37589811 37459759 37409711 37429654 37559594=20
37179535 36709488 36029476 35149593 35189727=20
35689819 36489874 37199885 37579864=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 150933
FFGMPD
OKZ000-151330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0440
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
532 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Areas affected...Much of central OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 150930Z - 151330Z

Summary...Additional localized 2-4" rainfall totals (at least
partially overlapping with areas that have already seen 2-7"
totals over past 7 hours) may contribute to continued isolated to
scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...A maturing MCS is continuing to produce healthy
updrafts early this morning, as evidenced by persistent
overshooting tops via GOES-East imagery and associated
instantaneous rainfall rates as high as 3-5"/hr via MRMS
estimates. This active convection is focused along the western and
southern flanks of the established cold pool (which is highly
pronounced on the 08z SPC RAP analysis surface thetaE plot), where
ML CAPE of 500-2000 J/kg resides. Tropospheric moisture content
remains impressive across this region (PWs of 1.4-1.8", near the
90th percentile per OUN sounding climatology), though the LLJ and
associated moisture transport is beginning to wane. Convection
continues to backbuild to the northwest, and a slow moving
shortwave/MCV is providing 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear
(which seems to be significantly contributing to updraft
longevity, despite an associated MCS maintenance parameter of only
10-40% along the western flank of the system).

While both the intensity of the MCS and the consistency of storm
training has likely peaked with the waning LLJ and increased
forward propagation of storms in the past hour, still expect some
additional backbuilding and training to continue for 3-4 more
hours. This favors at least some additional heavy rainfall for the
greater OKC metro, where locally 2-3" of rainfall has already
occurred with this system. Additional heavy rainfall may also
continue to train to the north of OKC, where locally as much as
6-7" of rainfall has occurred over the past 6-7 hours. Additional
localized totals of up to 2-4" may occur (per 06z HREF PMM QPF, as
well as subsequent HRRR and experimental RRFS QPF). Isolated to
scattered instances of flash flooding are possible (particularly
if these amounts occur over more sensitive areas, where locally
considerable instances of flash flooding are possible).

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_nFpD58aOjjsRSk69s4yRBFv-O3nLWEV53RIPFykhvKDkADlUdMAMG6uR1soq2fwuyaA= OlrF2j_rJ3tIk4ZWnarF-PQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36959846 36809776 36599727 36319683 36009655=20
35709625 35389592 34729569 34369613 34039708=20
34049786 34379864 34779912 35059928 35739935=20
36339937 36939927=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 151246
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-151644-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0441
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
845 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Areas affected...southern Oklahoma, north through northwest Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 151244Z - 151644Z

Summary...A couple of mature convective complexes were merging and
crossing the Red River of Oklahoma/Texas this morning. Spots of
1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates should pose an isolated flash flood risk
that should progressively become more isolated with time.

Discussion...Recent mosaic imagery depicts a couple of merging
convective complexes - one along the Red River from near Wichita
Falls to near Durant, OK and another across far southwestern
Oklahoma and the southeast Texas Panhandle near Childress. The
complexes have gained forward speed through the morning, although
several mergers have aided in 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates within both
complexes. These rain rates are generally lower than FFG
thresholds areawide, with the greatest potential for impactful
flooding existing in/near urban and sensitive locales over the
past couple of hours.

These general trends should continue to translate southward into
more of north/central Texas this morning. 20 kt southwesterly
850mb flow should continue to provide sufficient low-level shear
for MCS maintenance while 1.5+ inch PW values and 1000-2000 J/kg
of downstream MLCAPE supports robust, efficient updrafts. Areas
of 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates should continue with the complexes -
again falling generally below FFG and limiting the spatial extent
of flash flood potential to the most sensitive/urbanized spots.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!71y8DcbT55YApAgEdGP-Muc2DBNx-4TczWh5HFCPZeiagoaq7EDhEtdpIZnaHHabN4I9= EL-szN4iVpunhmuN9XVW45E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...FWD...LUB...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35429905 34909730 34259641 32949623 32219664=20
31739753 31909948 33100044 34530058 35409998=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 151536
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-152133-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0442
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1135 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Areas affected...portions of West Virginia, southwestern
Pennsylvania, western Virginia, and eastern Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 151533Z - 152133Z

Summary...Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage
today while producing spots of 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates across the
discussion area. These rates will support scattered flash
flooding - especially across the central Appalachians - through
22Z/6p EDT.

Discussion...Recent radar/satellite imagery indicates sufficient destabilization across the discussion area to support deepening
convection that was expanding in coverage. Mesoanalyses suggest
that the convection was surface-based an in an environment
characterized by 2000 J/kg SBCAPE and 1.8 inch PW values,
supporting efficient rain rates with this activity. These cells
were moving very slowly eastward - perhaps slowest across
southwestern Pennsylvania amid a minimum in wind fields aloft.=20
Slow cell movement was already allowing for a few spots of 1
inch/hr rain rates to develop just south of Charleston, WV over
the past hour.

Ongoing convective trends are expected to continue through the
afternoon, with pockets of insolation/destabilization aiding in
sustained thunderstorm development amid weak vorticity maxima
traversing the region aloft. The combination of weak low-level
flow against central Appalachian terrain and a stationary boundary
extending from southwestern Pennsylvania (Greensburg) southward
through western Virginia (near Charlottesville) should also serve
as an additional focus for convective development and persistent
heavy rainfall. FFG thresholds happen to be lowest near the
aforementioned boundary (<1 inch/hr), though instances of
exceedence can be expected areawide in several locales through 22Z.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5BN9CdfmufgV11PHpNUNh1u-lojx2H6wU73AZiHaqQSe0HOtFtNvnsXwy7Xz6YUds0GY= s0i0I-a6KKh4NYPD4_T8FcM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...JKL...LWX...MRX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40557901 40087839 39057800 38247800 37677842=20
37387950 36918209 37268354 37918311 38398230=20
39418108 40258016=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 151537
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-152133-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0442
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1137 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Areas affected...portions of West Virginia, southwestern
Pennsylvania, western Virginia, and eastern Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 151533Z - 152133Z

Summary...Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage
today while producing spots of 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates across the
discussion area. These rates will support scattered flash
flooding - especially across the central Appalachians - through
22Z/6p EDT.

Discussion...Recent radar/satellite imagery indicates sufficient destabilization across the discussion area to support deepening
convection that was expanding in coverage. Mesoanalyses suggest
that the convection was surface-based and in an environment
characterized by 2000 J/kg SBCAPE and 1.8 inch PW values,
supporting efficient rain rates with this activity. These cells
were moving very slowly eastward - perhaps slowest across
southwestern Pennsylvania amid a minimum in wind fields aloft.=20
Slow cell movement was already allowing for a few spots of 1
inch/hr rain rates to develop just south of Charleston, WV over
the past hour.

Ongoing convective trends are expected to continue through the
afternoon, with pockets of insolation/destabilization aiding in
sustained thunderstorm development amid weak vorticity maxima
traversing the region aloft. The combination of weak low-level
flow against central Appalachian terrain and a stationary boundary
extending from southwestern Pennsylvania (Greensburg) southward
through western Virginia (near Charlottesville) should also serve
as an additional focus for convective development and persistent
heavy rainfall. FFG thresholds happen to be lowest near the
aforementioned boundary (<1 inch/hr), though instances of
exceedence can be expected areawide in several locales through 22Z.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6JyBNWc_hqpvLo0oa2psanCcsU3oRrPTLv61DfO0x6UAhOhTOYfJCglkR8UoLMNK1dOl= r2UojUVRz-YfBTlXGsttGeA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...JKL...LWX...MRX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40557901 40087839 39057800 38247800 37677842=20
37387950 36918209 37268354 37918311 38398230=20
39418108 40258016=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 151542
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-152133-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0442...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1141 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Corrected for graphic

Areas affected...portions of West Virginia, southwestern
Pennsylvania, western Virginia, and eastern Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 151533Z - 152133Z

Summary...Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage
today while producing spots of 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates across the
discussion area. These rates will support scattered flash
flooding - especially across the central Appalachians - through
22Z/6p EDT.

Discussion...Recent radar/satellite imagery indicates sufficient destabilization across the discussion area to support deepening
convection that was expanding in coverage. Mesoanalyses suggest
that the convection was surface-based and in an environment
characterized by 2000 J/kg SBCAPE and 1.8 inch PW values,
supporting efficient rain rates with this activity. These cells
were moving very slowly eastward - perhaps slowest across
southwestern Pennsylvania amid a minimum in wind fields aloft.=20
Slow cell movement was already allowing for a few spots of 1
inch/hr rain rates to develop just south of Charleston, WV over
the past hour.

Ongoing convective trends are expected to continue through the
afternoon, with pockets of insolation/destabilization aiding in
sustained thunderstorm development amid weak vorticity maxima
traversing the region aloft. The combination of weak low-level
flow against central Appalachian terrain and a stationary boundary
extending from southwestern Pennsylvania (Greensburg) southward
through western Virginia (near Charlottesville) should also serve
as an additional focus for convective development and persistent
heavy rainfall. FFG thresholds happen to be lowest near the
aforementioned boundary (<1 inch/hr), though instances of
exceedence can be expected areawide in several locales through 22Z.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8ToZW08JQZT_5QWx0keQiTIMhEOLuL9jP_9-Z3Gi-8iRpYkPMbApvk051D_0HNgKJmHC= QW6HV1Y6Rp6UEz2qr6X-XTo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...JKL...LWX...MRX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40557901 40087839 39057800 38247800 37677842=20
37387950 36918209 37268354 37918311 38398230=20
39418108 40258016=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 151737
FFGMPD
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-152036-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0443
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
136 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Areas affected...southwestern Missouri and vicinity

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 151736Z - 152036Z

Summary...A nearly stationary band of convection has materialized
north through northwest of Springfield, MO with local 1-1.5
inch/hr rain rates. Some potential exists for this band to persist
for multiple hours, posing a flash flood threat.

Discussion...Over the past hour or so, an east-to-west oriented
band of deeper convection has organized just east of an MCV center
near the KS/OK/MO border region. This band was also collocated
with weak surface convergence over the region, with low-level
southerlies over most of the Missouri Ozarks veering to easterly
low-level flow across central/west-central Missouri. 1500 J/kg
SBCAPE values and 1.6 inch PW values were promoting heavier rain
rates with deeper convection along this confluence axis. These
rates were approaching local FFG thresholds near 1.5 inch/hr -
suggestive of an increasing flash flood threat in the short term.

Over the next 2-3 hours, this band should move slowly, with local
influences from cold pool generation playing a key role in the
ultimate evolution of the band. Localized 3 inch rainfall totals
cannot be completely ruled out - especially where rainfall is most
persistent. These totals should result in a few instances of
flash flooding especially in sensitive/low spots.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6nRn8jNE5BjAYQE6gQPnoZsph-G_B88ugHHWiXcVxzON6ITozYkpiTwYSDx0Vl63GJZ7= DkmDXhdLT3OT-8pR75gErXU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38219328 38089169 37509136 36909294 36759472=20
37109548 37739507 38019455=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 151826
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-160025-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0444
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
226 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Areas affected...Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 151825Z - 160025Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will develop over the
next few hours across central to southeast VA and into northeast
NC. High rainfall rates and slow cell-motions will promote
excessive rainfall totals and a likelihood for scattered to
numerous areas of flash flooding going through early this evening.
Considerable urban flash flooding with life-threatening impacts
will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The early-afternoon GOES-IR satellite imagery shows
cooling convective tops over central WV through much of western VA
as a very slow-moving mid-level shortwave trough advances east
across the central Appalachians. Diurnal heating and resultant
boundary layer destabilization is well underway ahead of this
energy in vicinity of a well-defined stationary front draped from
eastern WV down through southeast VA.

MLCAPE values are already upwards of 1500 to 2500+ J/kg across
central to southeast VA and through much of central to northeast
NC. The airmass is also very moist across the region with PWs of
1.75 to 2 inches, and the 12Z RAOB data from KIAD, KRNK and KGSO
all showed very moist vertical columns with the KRNK and KGSO
soundings in particular showing tally, skinny CAPE profiles. This
once again suggests a highly efficient environment with extreme
rainfall rate potential.

Satellite imagery is showing a substantial amount of solar
insolation ongoing on across south-central to southeast VA to the
south of the front, and additional boundary layer destabilization
is expected to couple with a combination of frontal convergence,
and weak DPVA for the development and expansion of convection=20
through the afternoon and early evening hours. Additionally,
satellite and surface observations suggest that there may be a
weak wave of low pressure developing along the front over
south-central VA, and this may further yield a low-level focus for
more concentrated/stronger convection over the next few hours.

The latest 12Z HREF/06Z REFS guidance, along with the
early-afternoon 17Z/1730Z WoFS guidance all suggest very high
rainfall rate potential with 2 to 3 inch/hour rainfall rates
possible with the stronger storms. The generally slow cell-motions
and cell-merger concerns will foster concerns for some rainfall
totals to reach 3 to 5+ inches going through 00Z (8pm EDT).

Given the rainfall rates/totals, and sensitive antecedent
conditions, scattered to numerous areas of flash flooding are
generally expected over the next several hours. Considerable urban
flash flooding will be possible, including significant to
life-threatening impacts should these heavier rains materialize
over the urban corridors and especially from Richmond to
Petersburg over into the Hampton Roads vicinity. Areas of
northeast NC from Roanoke Rapids to Elizabeth City also should be
closely monitored for urban flash flooding concerns.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5AeCyIA4uZG8s0hyZyIhvidQnkyawsPHJ4eM3uI0tAWUCX9FxsYLVy7bcKizF2MHwPWP= l-xLKwgoaL191sSrXbb6Sbk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...MHX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38257797 37997749 37307635 36697576 36047563=20
35507609 35547702 36087835 36377930 36668034=20
37288034 37807967 38227882=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 151856
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-160000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0445
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
255 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the Southeast U.S.

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 151855Z - 160000Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving heavy showers and thunderstorms will
continue through the afternoon and early evening hours across
southern GA into eastern portions of the FL Panhandle and through
northeast FL. Isolated areas of mainly urban flash flooding will
be possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows
expanding clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms across areas
of southern GA into the FL Panhandle and northeast FL. The
convection is focused generally near a weak inverted surface
trough and in a weakly divergent flow regime aloft due to an
upper-level trough near the Gulf Coast. Additionally, there is
evidence of some seabreeze convergence more specifically attached
to to the convective threat over northeast FL

MLCAPE values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg and high PWs of locally over 2
inches will support rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches/hour with the
stronger convective cores near the inverted trough axis. Slow
cell-motions and a couple of cell-mergers may yield some spotty
totals of 3 to 4+ inches going through early this evening. The
latest HRRR and RRFS guidance supports this with some 12Z HREF
guidance also favoring locally heavy rainfall amounts.

A few isolated areas of mainly urban flash flooding will be
possible as a result going through early this evening. Some areas
that saw heavy rain yesterday may also be impacted which will
introduce some localized runoff concerns.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4ujLAWZ7ayd4Fekz6g2lXfBTjze2QFfHDf_wJt4oHfq9PEPpkhPfsYrEZ8QPZ_V5vt64= hjO3iNTsYeLiIYoMA-xUJvY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...FFC...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32188313 32078195 31618142 31118129 30518136=20
29488121 29468170 30118272 30218360 29748440=20
29598502 30088551 31458463=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 152003
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-160202-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0446
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
402 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Areas affected...Southern MO...Central and Northern AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 152002Z - 160202Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms with high rainfall rates and
slow cell-motions will pose a notable threat for scattered areas
of flash flooding going into the evening hours.

DISCUSSION...The afternoon GOES-E visible satellite imagery shows
an expanding CU/TCU field across central and northern AR and areas
of southern MO to the south of a band of broken showers and
thunderstorms that areas already impacting portions of
south-central MO to the north and east of Springfield. The
convection is being strongly influenced by deep layer cyclonic=20
flow associated with a nearly stationary low to mid-level low
center over far northeast OK.

This energy is also entangled along a quasi-stationary frontal
zone and over the next few hours will be interacting with a
moderately buoyant airmass pooled along it characterized by MLCAPE
values of 1000 to 1500+ J/kg. Some of the greater instability is
focused across central AR and with the cyclonic low to mid-level
flow, there should be a gradual expansion of showers and
thunderstorms over the next few hours down into northern and
central AR.

Rainfall rates with the convection should be capable of reaching
1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour based on the 12Z HREF guidance, and with
slow cell-motions going into the evening hours, there may be some
localized storm totals of 3 to 4+ inches. In fact, recent HRRR
guidance suggests some spotty 5 inch amounts may be possible
across central AR early this evening from some areas of
cell-training that occur.

These rainfall amounts on top of moist antecedent conditions and
near areas of more sensitive/rugged terrain involving portions of
the Ozark Plateau will generally favor concerns for scattered
areas of flash flooding. There also may be a notable urban flash
flood threat if the convection can build far enough south and get
into areas from Batesville on down through Little Rock and Hot
Springs.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!49IBRrXnlptiXOf6M8z-UI4Q9Yb11Lnfg5Groj9n4L3EQnYRyLLLq27oT9EZ4hdb38lO= l7HA2L35Lk6zZrHv2as7Jho$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38169290 37759141 36599068 34759144 33869294=20
33819418 34719434 36359337 37729382=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 152019
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-160117-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0447
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
418 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Areas affected...Southeast TX into western LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 152017Z - 160117Z

SUMMARY...Isolated flash flooding is expected this afternoon
across southeast Texas into western Louisiana with high
instability and moisture resulting in intense rainfall rates.

DISCUSSION...Recent SPC mesoanalysis depicts MLCAPE upwards of
4000 j/kg and PWs as high as 2.2" over southeast TX into LA. This
environment will be capable of very high rainfall rates likely
resulting in an isolated flash flood risk this afternoon. Wind
fields and shear are relatively weak, suggesting slow cell
motions, but also mostly a pulse storm mode. This pulse nature of
convection should overall limit the duration of heavier rainfall
rates. However, an outflow boundary diving southward across the
area should act as a focus for cell mergers over the next few
hours, locally increasing duration and rainfall totals. Recent
HRRR runs support localized totals over 3", and neighborhood
probabilities of exceeding 3" from the 12z HREF are 40-60%.

Given the wet antecedent conditions and elevated streamflows over
most of this region would expect this rainfall to result in at
least an isolated flash flood threat over the next several hours.
Hourly rainfall of 2-3" appears probable in spots as the outflow
drives cell mergers within the aforementioned highly unstable and
moist airmass. The threat will be relatively short lived however,
as the southward moving outflow should help clear things out from
north to south by this evening.

Chenard

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4s2Csqn1qPzQ7ibWxoAzc0PA8Uf_nfNVrIocoY7M_pRBzl_6VQ2-4t7PRfEkQFtYykSF= lLrE5ldns0c8Jz50-PaCgns$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32609459 32029380 31299329 30209352 29809439=20
29449531 29239635 28569725 28719773 29299793=20
30289800 30799742 31089664 31969575 32519533=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 152106
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-160300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0448
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
505 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the Upper OH Valley and Central
Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 152105Z - 160300Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving areas of very heavy showers and
thunderstorms will continue into this evening across portions of
the upper OH Valley and especially the central Appalachians.
Numerous areas of flash flooding, including pockets of
considerable to locally catastrophic impacts will continue over
the next several hours. This is a life-threatening situation.

DISCUSSION...The mid-afternoon GOES-IR satellite imagery along
with radar imagery shows numerous areas of slow-moving and heavy
showers and thunderstorms impacting southwest PA through southeast
OH, eastern KY and large areas of WV, with this activity
continuing to advance downstream into areas of western VA to the
east of the Appalachians. The activity continues to be focused in
connection with a slow-moving low to mid-level low center and
trough drifting east across the central Appalachians which is also
interacting with proximity of a stationary front.

A very moist and moderately unstable airmass remains focused over
the region, with PWs in the 90th to 95th percentile of
climatology, and MLCAPE values still ranging in between 1000 to
1500 J/kg with the aid of additional boundary layer heating.

Additional rounds of slow-moving and heavy showers and
thunderstorms are expected over the next several hours as cyclonic
low to mid-level flow coupled with orographic ascent over the
higher terrain of southwest PA down through central WV works to
provide ascent. Locally focused areas of convergence near the
front will also be a key facilitator for additional rounds of
convection in the near-term.

The latest HRRR/RRFS guidance supports up to an additional 2 to 4
inches of rain, with isolated heavier amounts not out of the
question given the very moist/unstable environment and orographic
nature to a lot of the shower and thunderstorm activity.

Numerous areas of flash flooding are already ongoing, and will
continue into the evening hours, including pockets of considerable
to locally catastrophic impacts. This life-threatening situation
is expected to continue in the near-term.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9biiTJiVFRCvJBAwPYkMwwRhj8k04tlZc2ENXK-BWECgUDgqMpaIBjnH8LVqxW_XTfvq= AK3WQ7PRjE-DyQ3T3SkNNdY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...ILN...JKL...LMK...LWX...MRX...PBZ...RLX...
RNK...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40877954 40537900 39527877 38547863 37787972=20
37398062 37168242 37278404 37718457 38468439=20
39218314 39978181 40788057=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 152207
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-160205-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0449
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
606 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Areas affected...Southeast NM...Southwest TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 152205Z - 160205Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving and locally anchored thunderstorms across
portions of southeast NM and southwest TX will continue for at
least a few more hours.

DISCUSSION...Radar and satellite imagery shows slow-moving and
locally anchored cold-topped thunderstorms across areas of
southeast NM and southwest TX, with the convection focusing near
some of the higher terrain generally southeast of the Sacramento
Mountains. Moist and unstable low-level flow near terrain will
tend to favor this activity over the few hours with some potential
for this convection to organize upscale a bit more and then
advance east potentially into adjacent areas of the far southern
High Plains.

Rainfall rates with these storms are expected to be high, and
reaching as high as 1 to 2 inches/hour. The slow cell-motions and
concerns for a few cell-mergers over the next couple of hours will
support some isolated 3 to 4+ inch totals.

Very little hires model guidance is properly handling the current
activity, but the latest satellite and radar trends, especially
with the level of recent cloud-top cooling suggests some
persistence of the activity at least for a few more hours. Some
areas of flash flooding will be possible with these cells given
their slow movement and expected rainfall rates.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8j3vVNgSw1rWzjc_YGSFFZEET3eVW8HIJwOhu-QfZCevywGMfzxtIGE6LdoHx46-8wuE= AgjwhVMsSfsRSvpB1akMWMQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34600458 33860355 31910318 30440369 30130465=20
30540557 31320556 32330545 33230579 34360591=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 152252
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-160150-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0450
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
651 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Areas affected...Northern VA...D.C....Southern MD

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 152250Z - 160150Z

SUMMARY...Very efficient shower activity with locally high
rainfall rates may cause some flash flooding concerns across
portions of northern VA, D.C and southern MD over the next few
hours.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a few clusters of heavy shower
activity beginning to impact areas of northern VA and southern MD
along with areas just south of Washington D.C. The convection
which is very efficient in nature with relatively warm tops and is
embedded within a very moist vertical column with PWs of 1.8 to 2
inches.

There is some weak elevated instability (MUCAPE values of 500+
J/kg) along with some isentropic ascent north of a stationary
front and ahead of the upstream shortwave energy over the central
Appalachians helping to facilitate this activity. Rainfall rates
based on MRMS data are upwards of 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour with this
convection.

Given these high rates and the slow cell-motions, some near-term
totals over the next few hours may reach 3 to 4 inches. Given the
generally wet antecedent conditions and urban sensitivities around
the Washington D.C. metropolitan area, some flash flooding will
certainly be a concern.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_5xad8J1EShpTiUsN_juiFnSmiX9zHxaIvLAcUv8sQ1unVjYX14jYwIPlmusOe3M2_Co= 9MCOq7mtbUoIDvOBZUMoIjw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39207817 39107730 38707651 38187647 37857686=20
37867715 38247787 38347849 38867857 39117856=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 152335
FFGMPD
NDZ000-MTZ000-160535-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0451
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
735 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Areas affected...Portions of Central and Eastern MT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 152335Z - 160535Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
and grow upscale into a progressive convective complex this
evening while advancing out across the MT High Plains.

DISCUSSION...The late-day GOES-W visible satellite imagery shows
convection initiating and expanding in coverage across central MT
as a rather vigorous upstream shortwave trough approaches the
region and interacts with an unstable boundary layer with MLCAPE
values of 1500 to 2500 J/kg.

Some MLCIN is still evident late this afternoon which may temper
some of the initial stages of convective development, but as
stronger forcing with the shortwave arrives and the low-level jet
increases across southeast MT in close proximity to a developing
wave of low pressure, there should be a considerable amount of
upscale convective growth going into the evening hours.

Supercell thunderstorms with notable severe weather hazards
including large hail and damaging winds (please see SPC's WW #418
and recently issued MD #1305 for more details) may also be capable
of producing sufficiently heavy enough rainfall rates and totals
over the next several hours for there to be at least some isolated
areas of flash flooding. The PWs across the region are near the
90th percentile of climatology, and with an increase in low-level
moisture transport this evening, the rainfall rates may reach as
high as 1 to 2 inches/hour.

The environment this evening will be conducive for cell-mergers as
the larger scale convective mass gradually takes on an MCS-related
evolution and forward propagates downstream through eastern MT.
Some rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches will be possible as the
event unfolds and convection locally becomes more concentrated,
and this is supported by the 12Z/18Z HREF guidance. The HREF is
also showing a corridor of rather high 1-hour and 3-hour FFG
exceedance probabilities based on these totals.

Therefore, the potential will exist over the next several hours
for there to be at least some isolated areas of flash flooding in
addition to the regional severe weather concerns.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4WxFmj--hot4-u_M4NgNv7Kfu7ddb83Dft7juoTw2mKNXuuAwzUTTvjH7pqx_k3wwhPl= 3-g8eAcmEcgN0416fMEqfAA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 48970768 48620591 48000473 47260400 46130407=20
45380530 45370690 45670859 46231010 46991078=20
47921055 48650945=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 160036
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-160635-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0452
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
835 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Areas affected...Central to Southeast VA...Central to Northeast NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 160035Z - 160635Z

SUMMARY...Scattered areas of flash flooding will continue to be a
threat going through midnight across areas of central to southeast
VA, and especially central to northeast NC. Locally considerable
urban flash flooding and life-threatening impacts will remain
possible.

DISCUSSION...The early-evening GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
cold-topped convective mass continuing to evolve across areas of
central to southeast VA, with some of the most vigorous activity
including overshooting tops noted over parts of central to
northeast NC. The convection continues to be focusing in close
proximity to a stationary with a substantial pool of instability
still pooled nearby. MLCAPE values are highest over much of
central and eastern NC in general with values of 1500 to 2500+
J/kg noted based on the latest RAP analysis.

Convergent low-level flow nosing up across central to northeast NC
over the next few hours to the south of the front will be a key
facilitator of convection becoming more pronounced and focused
across this region, with potentially some of this still capable of
nosing up into southeast VA near the Hampton Roads vicinity.
However, many areas of central VA have already largely been
convectively overturned.

PWs are a bit higher than they were around midday and are now
upwards of 2 to 2.25 inches along the VA/NC border, and this
coupled with the instability and modest shear profiles should
easily favor rainfall rates reaching 2 to 3 inches/hour with the
stronger cells. This is supported by the 23Z WoFS output which
shows 50+ percent probabilities of seeing 2+ inch/hour rainfall
rates across central to northeast NC over the next few hours.

The 50th percentile of 23Z WoFS 6-hour QPF output shows a swath of
2 to 4 inch rainfall totals across areas of central to northeast
NC, with 90th percentile data showing spotty 6+ inch totals as a
result of an environment conducive for cell-training.

Lesser rainfall amounts at this point are expected farther north
across southeast VA, but areas near Virginia Beach on down through
Chesapeake may locally see a couple of additional inches of rain.
However, generally the greatest focus of additional heavy rains
and concerns for additional flash flooding should be across
central to northeast NC based on the collective array of recent
hires model guidance which also includes the HRRR and RRFS.

Given the rainfall rates/totals, and locally sensitive antecedent
conditions that remain in place, scattered areas of additional
flash flooding will be likely going through midnight. And some
locally considerable and life-threatening urban flash flooding
impacts will remain possible.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_CxwtH_NO34SPxn5tZP0Em08jnf12L03pP5A841n-SOziwalz7tM3pfjUTjncHGkcEvc= qDxtm9Ir_AFyHG5xdyFtqBQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...ILM...MHX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37627708 37417638 36927566 35837551 34987681=20
34747769 34687877 34967929 35357936 36097916=20
36548021 36948011 37137941 37107835 37327775=20
37537748=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 160152
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-160730-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0453
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
951 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Areas affected...South-Central to Southeast MO...Much of Southwest
to Central and Northeast AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 160150Z - 160730Z

SUMMARY...Additional scattered areas of flash flooding are
expected over the next few hours, which will include some urban
flooding concerns as areas of slow-moving and locally training
showers and thunderstorms continue to impact areas of
south-central to southeast MO down through large areas of central
to southwest AR.

DISCUSSION...The evening GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with
radar data shows broken bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms
impacting parts of south-central to southeast MO, and especially
down through central to southwest AR where there has recently been
some notable cell-training of the activity. The convection is
entrenched within a convergent low to mid-level flow regime around
the southern flank of a deeper layer low center over the Ozark
Plateau.

The airmass remains very moist and unstable with MLCAPE values
over portions of central to northeast AR on the order of 1500 to
2500+ J/kg. PWs are as high as 2.0 to 2.25 inches and near the
90th percentile of climatology. As a result, rainfall rates with
the ongoing convection remain quite high with magnitudes of 2 to 3
inches/hour with the stronger cells.

Convergent flow over southeast through central AR and to a lesser
extent up through southeast MO will continue to promote these
slow-moving convective bands in the near-term. However, as
instability gradually wanes, the activity by late this evening
should weaken.

The HRRR and RRFS guidance suggests locally an additional 2 to 4+
inches of rain going through midnight, and these rains are
generally expected to produce scattered areas of additional flash
flooding. This will include concerns over the next few hours for
some urban flooding impacts, and especially where any additional
cell-training occurs before the activity weakens.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8L6gwf3kFEjO6o8azlz9SqSf1FkqoC8WIOv7fUZfRi1gPAkhhakz5so1ssQFJNz74XtW= dIPuUIC2u9o739ywc96fnhs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37449000 36808968 34819149 33799328 33839420=20
34589416 36369254 37319106=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 160556
FFGMPD
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-161100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0454
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
156 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Areas affected...portions of southeastern MT into west-central ND
and northwest SD

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 160555Z - 161100Z

Summary...Localized hourly totals of 1-2" to continue, resulting
in short-term (3-4 hour) totals of 2-4" (with higher isolated
totals possible). Isolated to scattered flash flooding likely (and
may be locally considerable).

Discussion...A forward propagating mesoscale convective system
(MCS) and associated mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) are
translating eastward from MT into ND/SD at this hour. While the
strongest convection is currently ongoing in a sparse
observational environment (due to a lack of surface observations
and poor radar coverage with the MRMS radar quality index near 0,
given surrounding radars scanning around ~20k feet AGL), GOES-East
1-min mesoscale sector imagery indicates persistent cold cloud
tops with active overshooting tops (which are also apparent via
MRMS with 30 dBZ echo tops persistently near ~60k feet). The
mesoscale environment near and downstream of the MCS/MCV is
characterized by ML CAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg, precipitable water
values of 1.2-1.4" (between the 90th percentile and max moving
average, per BIS sounding climatology), and significant deep layer
(0-6 km) shear of 40-50 kts (also near the 90th percentile).
Substantial differential divergence (850-250 mb) with a 25-35 kt
low-level jet to the southwest (over central ND) providing
moderate moisture transport and ample divergence aloft (via an
idealized coupled right-entrance region and left exit region jet
steaks) will continue to maintain an impressive MCS (with the
aforementioned shear and instability combined with a 850-300 mb
mean wind of 15-20 kts resulting in MCS maintenance probabilities
of 60-70%). While accurate precipitation estimates are difficult
to determine with the lack of quality near-surface radar data, the
system has a history of localized 1-2" hourly totals (with some training/repeating of these amounts possible in the vicinity of
the MCV).

The 00z HREF members are in decent agreement going forward (0.5"
exceedance 10-100 km neighborhood EAS probabilities of 30-45%
through 09z), and more recent hourly runs of the HRRR and
experimental RRFS are in even better agreement (generally
indicating localized totals of 2-3", though some RRFS runs
indicate isolated totals as high as 3-6"). Isolated to scattered
instances of flash flooding are likely (with 40-km neighborhood
HREF 3-hr FFG exceedance probs of 40-50%, which may be too low
given RRFS output) and some flooding may be locally significant
(as 3-hr 100-yr average recurrence interval QPF is indicating to
be 2.5-3.0", having at least a 25% chance to be realized).

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9COJHjkJIl7eW_uD21W0Q_8eZF2s8_PmJuAuZOXECS95hFDNW4EEx6sbRUxWvbCBtlmx= x3GYaIBJ9FKeRGWo9LvpkBw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...BYZ...GGW...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 48700285 48700169 47930053 47319979 46429941=20
45529958 45110147 45040319 45100527 45930532=20
46970485 47530439 47950358=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 160636
FFGMPD
NCZ000-161000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0455
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
236 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Areas affected...portions of north-central NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 160635Z - 161000Z

Summary...Locally considerable and life threatening flash flooding
likely to continue for another few hours with additional 3"+
totals possible over areas that have had 3-6" of rainfall over
past 3-6 hours.

Discussion...Convection is tending to backbuild late overnight in
the vicinity of a stalled front over portions of northeastern NC.
The mesoscale environment is characterized by sufficient ML CAPE
of 500-1000 J/kg, highly anomalous precipitable water values of
2.0-2.2" (near record levels, per GSO sounding climatology), and
effective bulk shear of 20-25 kts. Moisture transport remains
elevated from the W-WSW, nearly parallel to the deep layer
(850-300 mb) steering flow (~20 kts), which is allowing for
backbuilding from the Raleigh metro area eastward to Rocky Mount
and Greenville. Some of these areas east of the Raleigh metro
(which has been mostly dry so far) have picked up as much as 3-6"
of rain over the past 3-6 hours. Flash flooding is already
ongoing, the recent backbuilding trends (evident on both radar and
infrared satellite imagery) may exacerbate or renew locally
considerable flash flooding.

While hi-res CAMs do not have a great handle on the situation
(with both hourly HRRR and experimental RRFS runs struggling to
properly initialize and model the ongoing storms), the 00z HREF
does depict a concerning signal for significant additional
accumulations (which is consistent with recent observational
trends, especially considering locally wet antecedent conditions).
The 00z NAM-nest solution in particular appears to be driving this
HREF signal (as it depict localized totals as high as 4-7"),
suggesting the potential for localized 3" and 5" exceedance
(10-20% and near 10% odds, respectively, per 40-km neighborhood
HREF exceedance probabilities). Isolated to scattered instances of
flash flooding are likely, and locally considerable/life
threatening flash flooding will be exacerbated with continued 1-3"
hourly totals.

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6IFFBw1cb0e5q1iBQCwFRbuLhF-69L85xP20aVpMoXQeyDZEuxTpzQEwMibgeOr8R7SD= LFGsayrevizsriDFH-oKEkg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36277961 36267889 36057802 35997701 35637687=20
35247723 35447903 35927975=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 161129
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-161530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0456
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
728 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Areas affected...South-central to Southeast MN...North-central to
Northeast IA...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161130Z - 161530Z

SUMMARY...A few more hours of warm-advective thunderstorms with
slow cell motions or weak training profile resulting in localized
2-4" totals and possible flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...RAP analysis denotes a small well of uncapped MUCAPE
across south-central to southeastern MN into IA along the
southeasterly periphery of a well defined surface warm front
extending from a surface low/triple-point near ATY in eastern
SDAK. Solid southerly flow intersects and veers becoming
increasingly convergent through the upglide over the front to
provide sufficient WAA to have maintained scattered convection for
the past few hours. However, trends continue to support further
rooting toward the front across Freeborn county slowly extending
northward toward Sibley county, effectively along/parallel to the
deeper layer steering flow. While the steering flow is weak to
allow for fairly stationary cell motions, any motions generally
are parallel to the frontal zone allowing for some
cross-over/repeating of the cores of the cells. CIRA LPW along
with RAP analysis denotes a 700mb wave and peak moisture pool
across SE MN providing both the steering and the enhanced deeper
layer moisture; though that is generally moderate to above average
at about 1.5-1.7" in total. Inflow at cloud base is only about
mid 60F Tds so efficiency is mid-level at about 1.5"/hr
occasionally reaching 2" with pulses of WAA. Allowing for overall
totals to be highly concentrated but starting to near 3" localized
maxima.

The greatest uncertainty remains on how long the favorable upglide
can maintain give stronger upglide is likely to increased deeper
layer cell motions and break up the more favored repeating
environment, though even slight veering more westward in the
lowest layers will also disrupt the setup. At this time, most
guidance is traditionally slow with the upstream wave and have
been suggesting a 15z disruption/end to ideal setup; however,
typical model bias would suggest an hour or two faster and given
upstream trends on the overall wave, this seems plausible. As
such a few more hours can be expected likely expanding the 2-3"
footprint with localized further increase to near 4" possible.=20
Given FFG in the 1.5-2"/hr and 2-3"/3hr values, exceedance is
probable and result in possible localized incident or two of flash
flooding conditions through 15z before shifting southeast into NE
IA with reduced overall totals.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8iRPBIRwNaYa_vct97pef8SaLqqBlfjgUUUocr6IgIzKe5tzpeNC5seJRK6CsYfAmk4N= FL4aaQioFUVbZ4iSjjo8ecw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44839378 44129256 43669209 43079186 42759247=20
42919314 43559390 44189415 44799420=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 161402
FFGMPD
TXZ000-161900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0457
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1001 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Areas affected...Coastal South Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 161400Z - 161900Z

SUMMARY...Small MCC will continue to slowly drift southward with
2-3"/hr rates and localized totals up to 5"+ resulting in
continued flash flooding concerns through early afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A small cluster of thunderstorms continues to grow
upscale into a well formed/concentric Mesoscale Convective Complex
across the lower TX coast. GOES-E WV suite shows the primarily
forcing shortwave is between the two larger scale ridges west and
east of it with a clear break in the mid-level westerlies to its
north. Right entrance to a 25kt outflow jet to the south along
the coast has been providing solid outflow aloft to maintain the
MCV/shortwave especially given the mid-level latent heat release
with this tropical-like complex. In the lower levels, the
southerly Western Gulf LLJ has been providing solid flux
convergence to the WSW to ENE outflow boundary across Corpus
Christi Bay that has also taken on a N-S confluent orientation as
far south as South Padre Island into NE Cameron county.=20=20
Additionally, the mid-level outflow along the SW flank of the
complex has been expanding a banding-like feature into N Kenedy
county fairly orthogonal to the LLJ further enhancing convective
complex. Given total PWats over 2.25" and 20-25kt of orthogonal
inflow, the hourly rates of 2-3" are common and broadening in
coverage.=20

Very slow south-southwestward propagation is expected over the
coming hours. Upstream instability remains more than sufficient
with MLCAPEs already well over 2000 J/kg. Given the favorable
upper-level environment for outflow, would expect this convective
complex to maintain/expand southward along the coast with broad
2-4" totals with localized 5-6" probable. Eventually, the western
Gulf LLJ/WAA maximum will continue to slide north-northeast into
the Upper Texas coast, likely to reduce some low-level convergence
closer to the beaches, but still will provide solid flux to the
complex. Additionally, this complex is also moving through very
low population and very favorable soil conditions for
infiltration, the shear amount in time will likely continue to
produce flash flooding conditions through the noon-time hours into
early afternoon.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4m-1AvGtE7uggz4CrsmEHWMsP8hZ1FmUpmmDejgp4iNz514MmrlWpx-owdkdg8rr9bEW= lMpGkp30eGBEcaFIoDct4h4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 27599797 27599754 27379730 26869729 26139712=20
26129762 26439818 26899826 27319820=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 161643
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-162200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0458
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1241 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Areas affected...Cumberland Plateau & Central Appalachians...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161640Z - 162200Z

SUMMARY...Weakly organized but efficient rainfall producing
convective cells to increase in coverage/intensity over the next
few hours resulting in widely scattered 1.5-2.5" totals and
possible localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...16z surface observations across the Cumberland
Plateau into the central Appalachians show increasing temperatures
into the mid to upper 70s with isolated 80s further south with
very high dewpoints in the low to mid 70s across much of the area.
Weak surface ridging along the western upslope of the Cumberland
Plateau with mild troughing from N GA to W VA connects up to the
surface frontal boundary around SW VA with a damming ridge across
western and northwestern VA. As such, weak capping and sufficient
convergence is breaking out thunderstorm activity particularly
through the Cumberland Gap region of W KY/SW VA/NE TN, though
additional bubbling Cu/TCu expand along the Smokey Mtn Ridge line
to the south with increasing congestion south of the front in
central WV.=20

Total moisture of 1.75 to 2" is about 2-2.5 standard deviation
from the mean at this time of year and given recent heavy rainfall
has easily evaporated to further enhance rainfall potential.=20
Given increasing instability toward 1000-1500 J/kg (MLCAPE),
scattered updrafts should be fairly efficient with 13-14Kft of
warm cloud layer processes to support 1.5"/hr rates with strongest
cores perhaps up to 2". Deep layer westerly steering at about
20kts will keep cells moving, but likely support sufficient
duration for 1-2" totals. Secondary development along the upwind
flanks of the outflow boundaries may allow for increased duration
for short-term duration for a highly isolated 2.5" total. Given
overall saturated ground conditions (all but south-central VA, per
NASA SPoRT relative soil moisture values/percentiles) and complex
terrain, above average runoff is expected and may result in widely
scattered incidents of flash flooding increasing in coverage
toward peak heating in the next 3-4 hours.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-4ZApocQ1Gm3csMyof-dHUyifJtqOp18ll0Te8Ho9phH-aJzxRTqi57FPMk-CTnZGpuF= IopP1_uH6xdeFJ1-RSbuFVk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...JKL...LWX...MRX...RAH...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39098031 38887956 38607926 38077910 37267935=20
36158050 35078284 35028406 35168515 36088450=20
36658425 37338376 38028289 38578207 38788167=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 161803
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-162330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0459
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
202 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Areas affected...Western & Central KY...Southern IND...Southern
IL...Southeast MO...Northeast AR...Adj. TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161800Z - 162330Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving, efficient thunderstorms capable of 2-3" in
1-2 hours pose localized flash flooding conditions, especially
upstream over saturated ground conditions/low FFG.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows a broad anticyclonic arch of
high cirrus indicative of broad mid to upper level confluent flow
to speed max over central Ohio Valley (generally 50kts). This
results in a broad entrance region with favorable upper-level
divergence to support/maintain an elongated shear axis from a
stalled/shortwave feature across the eastern Ozark Plateau to a
convectively reinforced short-wave crossing southern IL into
southwest IND at this time. The combination of broad scale ascent
has provided ample broken to dense mid to upper-level cloud
features reinforcing surface front through differential heating
across northeast AR into Western KY. Visible imagery also helps
to denote the surface to 850mb low across N AR with front
generally along the southern portion of the cloud line across SE
MO, S IL into SW IND. Low level moisture remains above normal and
into the low to mid 70s wrt dewpoint and CIRA LPW in the surface
to 850mb within the Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valley nearing 1"
in places. As such, a plume of 2"+ TPW exists across the area
expanding eastward into western KY. Heating into the mid to upper
80s will steadily increase instability over 1500 J/kg MLCAPE with
SBCAPEs already over 3000 J/kg. As such, recent convective
initiation has been quick and vigorous across S IL/W KY and will
likely become quickly efficient in rainfall production given the
flux through the core of the moisture plume. Rates of 2"/hr are
likey though 15z HRRR hints that 15-minute totals may reach 1.5"
given the overall efficiency/deep warm cloud processes.

Deep layer flow should allow for cells to be fairly progressive
especially east of the MS River valley and organized structures
are likely to be clustered along and south of the frontal zone.=20
Random upstream redevelopment has potential for repeating tracks,
so spots of 2-3" totals are probable through the late
afternoon/early evening. Cells near the surface to 850mb low are
likely to be slower in eastward cell motions being a tad further
west of the jet entrance with perhaps a cell getting lodged on
some of the hills of the eastern Plateau given some favorable
upslope. Additionally, FFG values are reduced upstream due to
heavy rainfall last evening with 1hr values less than
1.5"...though downstream in W KY are still between 1.5-2" with 3hr
values in the 2-2.5" range. While the incidents of flash
flooding are likely to be scattered in nature throughout the MPD
area, the probability of FFG exceedance is likely and most
probable upstream with lower FFG and slower cell motions (though
lesser deep moisture/instability).

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8UQ39KEdni9YmN8qUQ_8y98AGhFSNpZ6viXOVbIgm9_h9OW_BhlfQFLYwUObpD3dsw4Z= q9wNOxCeH1WyJvnkZHnZXUQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...
SGF...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39008653 38658541 38158488 37568483 36788544=20
36538799 35749027 35339189 35679272 36239272=20
37009205 37639098 38588915 38908806=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 161824
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-170022-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0460
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
222 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Areas affected...Southern Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 161822Z - 170022Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will be developing and
expanding in coverage through the afternoon and into the evening
hours across much of the southern Mid-Atlantic region. Scattered
areas of flash flooding are likely, which will include concerns
for locally considerable urban flooding impacts.

DISCUSSION...Surface observations show a quasi-stationary front
draped once again across the southern Mid-Atlantic region and into
the central Appalachians, with the 18Z METARs showing the front
close to the VA/NC border and extending northwest up into eastern
WV. Strong diurnal heating along and south of the boundary has
allowed for the airmass across especially central and eastern NC
to become very unstable with MLCAPE values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg.

The low-level flow is very moist and rather convergent with PWs
over the eastern half of NC running upwards of 2.0 to 2.25 inches.
This coupled with additional surface heating over the next couple
of hours along with convergence in close proximity to the front
should favor the regional development and expansion of heavy
shower and thunderstorm activity over the next few hours which
will continue into the evening time frame.

Rainfall rates are expected to once again be very high, with rates
reaching as high as 2.5 inches/hour given the moist/unstable
environment. The convection should tend to be a combination of
slow-moving pulse and multi-cell convection, with some localized
concerns for cell-training possible.

The 12Z HREF supports some rainfall totals by 00Z (8pm EDT) of 3
to 5 inches, and some recent RRFS solutions support this as well.
Some areas of central and eastern NC saw rather heavy rainfall
totals over the last 24 hours and are relatively sensitive. This
combined with the additional rainfall, along with concerns for the
more sensitive urban areas, including the Raleigh-Durham
metropolitan area, suggests at least scattered areas of flash
flooding are likely. Locally considerable urban flooding impacts
will be possible going into the early evening hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_HWFy3AurrHzBtwgGBu-0U_ksnyj5hIrAq-csplnli80aa4_EwESsD4Nqont148gwvmW= fEYIFiBsy2dCNAuMpworpLs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CAE...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36997989 36737931 36537842 36427742 36457659=20
36467588 35947551 35067581 34627769 34767938=20
35138142 35418218 35828216 36198156 36518094=20
36898035=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 161838
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-162330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0459...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
237 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Corrected for FF Likely

Areas affected...Western & Central KY...Southern IND...Southern
IL...Southeast MO...Northeast AR...Adj. TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 161800Z - 162330Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving, efficient thunderstorms capable of 2-3" in
1-2 hours pose localized flash flooding conditions, especially
upstream over saturated ground conditions/low FFG.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows a broad anticyclonic arch of
high cirrus indicative of broad mid to upper level confluent flow
to speed max over central Ohio Valley (generally 50kts). This
results in a broad entrance region with favorable upper-level
divergence to support/maintain an elongated shear axis from a
stalled/shortwave feature across the eastern Ozark Plateau to a
convectively reinforced short-wave crossing southern IL into
southwest IND at this time. The combination of broad scale ascent
has provided ample broken to dense mid to upper-level cloud
features reinforcing surface front through differential heating
across northeast AR into Western KY. Visible imagery also helps
to denote the surface to 850mb low across N AR with front
generally along the southern portion of the cloud line across SE
MO, S IL into SW IND. Low level moisture remains above normal and
into the low to mid 70s wrt dewpoint and CIRA LPW in the surface
to 850mb within the Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valley nearing 1"
in places. As such, a plume of 2"+ TPW exists across the area
expanding eastward into western KY. Heating into the mid to upper
80s will steadily increase instability over 1500 J/kg MLCAPE with
SBCAPEs already over 3000 J/kg. As such, recent convective
initiation has been quick and vigorous across S IL/W KY and will
likely become quickly efficient in rainfall production given the
flux through the core of the moisture plume. Rates of 2"/hr are
likey though 15z HRRR hints that 15-minute totals may reach 1.5"
given the overall efficiency/deep warm cloud processes.

Deep layer flow should allow for cells to be fairly progressive
especially east of the MS River valley and organized structures
are likely to be clustered along and south of the frontal zone.=20
Random upstream redevelopment has potential for repeating tracks,
so spots of 2-3" totals are probable through the late
afternoon/early evening. Cells near the surface to 850mb low are
likely to be slower in eastward cell motions being a tad further
west of the jet entrance with perhaps a cell getting lodged on
some of the hills of the eastern Plateau given some favorable
upslope. Additionally, FFG values are reduced upstream due to
heavy rainfall last evening with 1hr values less than
1.5"...though downstream in W KY are still between 1.5-2" with 3hr
values in the 2-2.5" range. While the incidents of flash
flooding are likely to be scattered in nature throughout the MPD
area, the probability of FFG exceedance is likely and most
probable upstream with lower FFG and slower cell motions (though
lesser deep moisture/instability).

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7l9PaXvJ-3mUClkVUOSDT5VIoG1TEjQ4JkP9VHyw7iyv5K8FFQuQFnafxN2yO8XvPMVm= 9oJf6Ev-Da7gHQ1Rs_nXBlY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...
SGF...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39008653 38658541 38158488 37568483 36788544=20
36538799 35749027 35339189 35679272 36239272=20
37009205 37639098 38588915 38908806=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 162026
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-170100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0461
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
426 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Areas affected...Southeast TX...Far Southwest LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 162025Z - 170100Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving showers and thunderstorms with high rainfall
rates over the next few hours may expand a bit more in coverage
and pose concerns for isolated areas of flash flooding, and
especially around the more urbanized locations.

DISCUSSION...The mid-afternoon GOES-E visible satellite imagery
along with regional radar data shows pockets of slow-moving and
heavy showers and thunderstorms developing across portions of
southeast TX and into far southwest LA. The activity is focusing
along a convergence axis inland of the upper TX coast and out
ahead of some weak shortwave energy advancing gradually into
eastern TX.

MLCAPE values over the region are locally as high as 3500 J/kg
with PWs of around 2 inches, and this will be set the stage for
some expansion of convection over the next few hours across
especially southeast TX which may include the broader Houston
metropolitan area.

The 12Z HREF and 06Z REFS guidance both support some localized
concentrations of slow-moving convective cells going through the
late-afternoon and early evening hours. Rainfall rates are
expected to be as high as 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour, with some
potential for localized storm totals by early this evening to be 3
to 4+ inches.

Some low to moderate probabilities (20 to 50 percent) of exceeding
the 3-hour FFG are noted in the HREF and REFS guidance suites, and
this suggests there may be at least an isolated concern for some
flash flooding which in this case would primarily be a concern for
the more urbanized locations.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-zw7MEO2muxVNT9xooq1-HD4hwaRR_XVj5LMxt6dusdsRLhjVyTYBf7HP1CK-Jd7LFkn= Vqvk9kZelIiRKtVAF5Cx7tc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 30919460 30739351 29939315 29649414 29229511=20
29029583 29269644 29799663 30269626 30619551=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 162201
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-170300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0462
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
600 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Areas affected...Southeast WV...Southwest VA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 162200Z - 170300Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving showers and thunderstorms with very high
rainfall rates are likely to result in at least scattered areas of
flash flooding going through the evening hours. Some locally
significant and life-threatening impacts are possible near areas
of higher terrain.

DISCUSSION...The GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows areas of
slow-moving, but very efficient shower and thunderstorm activity
impacting portions of southeast WV on down through southwest VA
with an emphasis on some of the higher terrain of the central
Appalachians, the adjacent Piedmont, and especially the Blue Ridge.

A stationary front remains draped up against the eastern slopes of
the higher terrain, with very moist low-level easterly flow aiming
into the Blue Ridge. This combined with convection forming near
and just west of the front within the instability pool over the
higher terrain of central Appalachians is promoting a setup
capable of yielding locally enhanced rainfall totals across the
upslope areas of southeast WV and southwest VA.

MLCAPE values over central and southern WV remain on the order of
1000 to 1500+ J/kg, but PWs are locally near 2 inches, and the
CIRA-ALPW data shows notably concentrated moisture in the 850/700
mb layer where much of the stronger cloud-bearing ascent will be
situated.

Some of the 12Z HREF guidance and recent RRFS solutions are quite
wet this evening, and support some slow-moving convective cells
potentially anchoring themselves near the upslope areas of the
Blue Ridge over the next few hours. Rainfall rates with the
stronger ongoing storms are already as high as 2.5 inches/hour,
and storms will continue to be capable of yielding these rates
given the very moist/tropical vertical column that is in place.

Given the concerns for slow-moving and orographically aided
convection this evening near the front and the adjacent terrain,
some rainfall totals may reach 3 to 5+ inches. This will likely
result in at least scattered areas of flash flooding, with
potential for locally considerable and life-threatening impacts
given the potential for enhanced terrain-driven runoff and
channeled flow away from the terrain.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5mY4DF4_oVCR7ZupSOG0dnEhaCh-8JVkHjvni8Z0c1f7GSvczk5zc3p65mlGKW4zmCfe= pgP-I_fvUDAUY-hfWq2beqs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LWX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38697975 38607937 38437919 38117915 37477923=20
36647932 36447998 36628073 37078096 37728090=20
38178064 38578021=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 162331
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-170530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0463
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
730 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-South and OH Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 162330Z - 170530Z

SUMMARY...Additional scattered to broken bands of showers and
thunderstorms will continue to promote a threat for isolated to
scattered areas of flash flooding going through the remainder of
the evening hours.

DISCUSSION...The late-day GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with
radar shows an elongated and generally disorganized axis of
showers and thunderstorms impacting areas of the Mid-South into
the OH Valley. Some of the cooler convective tops over the last
hour have been noted over areas of central and western KY,
northwest TN, and parts of eastern AR where there has been a tad
more low-level convergence along with a favorable thermodynamic
environment for renewed rounds of convection.

MLCAPE values more broadly across the region are generally still
on the order of 1000 to 2000 J/kg, and the column remains very
moist with PWs locally near or over 2 inches. For many areas, that
is in the 90th percentile of climatology, and this has helped
foster heavy rainfall rates with some of the bands of convection
over the last few hours.

The pattern across the region in the low-levels remains generally
convergent along and south of a quasi-stationary front which also
involves a wave of low pressure over northwest AR. However, aloft
there is an elongated axis of mid-level vort energy which extends
from the Lower MS Valley northeastward into the Lower OH Valley.
Some modest deeper layer ascent is associated with this energy,
and a combination of this with the front and also the
moist/unstable boundary layer regime should support a continuation
of scattered to broken bands of convection at least through the
late-evening hours.

Rainfall rates with the additional storms will still be capable of
reaching 2 inches/hour, and with some localized pockets of
cell-training, some of the additional rainfall totals going
through midnight may reach 2 to 4 inches.

Some additional isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding will
be possible as a result, and especially with the moist antecedent
conditions and local urban sensitivities.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4UgKdw8ohWSk-UqdNqY5cb06hVa2eoCIHcEo8JLMb0jiMVS3JHpJU7KCJTV9uOwhfV5N= TRMnwWn-r5dxPPjmTfyBmxk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JAN...JKL...LMK...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38438446 37528430 36668653 35398888 33909085=20
34239171 36329047 37448897 38248681=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 170032
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-170500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0464
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
830 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Areas affected...Central and Eastern NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170030Z - 170500Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue for at
least a few more hours across areas of central and eastern NC.
Additional isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding are
possible.

DISCUSSION...Very cold convective tops are noted with clusters of
heavy showers and thunderstorms moving gradually east across
central and eastern NC this evening. The convection remains
embedded within a very moist and unstable boundary layer focused
near and south of a stationary front.

PWs of 2.0 to 2.25 inches, and MLCAPE values as high as 1500 to
2500 J/kg are still in place based on the latest RAP analysis.
Some modest shear with a belt of relatively stronger northwest
mid-level flow is noted overhead as well and this coupled with the
strong thermodynamics has been yielding some organization to the
convection over the last couple of hours.

Expect the areas of showers and thunderstorms to continue to
advance off to the east with some loss in latitude as well over
the next few hours, with some of the storms still capable of
producing rainfall rates of 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour with the
stronger cells.

However, the latest hires model guidance suggests that the
activity should gradually weaken by late this evening as boundary
layer instability gradually wanes. Some additional localized storm
totals of 2 to 4 inches will be possible where the stronger storms
focus at least over the next few hours.

This may support some additional isolated to scattered areas of
flash flooding which may also still include some localized urban
flooding concerns.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5vfD60lU1gkMbXn8xUVKb5nvo9LJPsQs-cieKVWpfyhmKCqKGuiOAfYwH3bzCcyM-EH0= jKDa2rb7YI4IxRDJOcDKNxE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36527902 36407820 36337749 36297702 36297649=20
36167594 35767560 35347575 34877664 34587770=20
34567894 34848003 35478039 36088048 36428021=20
36417978=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 170119
FFGMPD
MNZ000-170630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0465
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
918 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Areas affected...Northeast MN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170118Z - 170630Z

SUMMARY...A strong MCS advancing across northeast MN will continue
to drive concentrated and heavy areas of rainfall over the next
few hours. Some additional areas of flash flooding will be
possible.

DISCUSSION...A strong cold-topped convective complex continues to
ride northeastward up across northeast MN this evening in
association with a compact shortwave trough and associated wave of
low pressure. Strong shortwave dynamics interacting with a nose of
focused elevated instability and warm air advection riding up
toward northeast MN will favor the convection maintaining its
organization through the remainder of the evening hours.

Rainfall rates with the additional storms over the next 2 to 3
hours will continue to be on the order of 1 to 2 inches/hour given
the concentration of instability near what appears to be a
tightening mid-level MCV southeast of Hibbing. Given some of the
concentrated banded nature of the convection near the MCV feature,
some of the additional rains may reach 3 to 4+ inches going
through the late-evening hours which is supported by the latest
RRFS guidance.

The antecedent conditions are rather dry across the area, but with
the latest radar/satellite trends and hires CAM guidance,
additional areas of flash flooding will be possible.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9NhBpsH2Oi6i6fY09FUuBRCf6mzBxooprofAUx3sDDnewo6iYt2IQzPV3O_Zv0inIK8Z= zNdYZ4bUaD1ZDQTO3nL-9Nw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 48259207 48229014 47918971 47449088 47089156=20
47239229 47189297 47789305=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 170408
FFGMPD
MDZ000-WVZ000-170900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0466
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1207 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Areas affected...northern WV into far western MD

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170400Z - 170900Z

Summary...Some persistence of 1.0-1.5" localized hourly rainfall
amounts may allow for isolated instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Relatively weak low-level convergence and moisture
transport in the vicinity of a quasi-stationary surface front and
inverted trough of low pressure is maintaining a cluster of heavy
showers and thunderstorms with efficient rainfall (1.0-1.5" hourly
localized amounts, per MRMS) over northern portions of WV. The
mesoscale environment in the vicinity of this cluster of
convection is characterized by a maxima of surface based
instability (SB CAPE of 500-1500 J/kg) with little to no
convective inhibition, precipitable water values of 1.7-1.9 inches
(near record levels, per PIT sounding climatology), and effective
bulk shear of 25-30 kts. Low-level moisture transport is only
expected to increase over the next few hours, as the pressure
gradient tightens with a deepening low over the northern Great
Lakes and an upper-level trough over the Mid-South both making
their way eastward. Isentropic lift is expected to become more
pronounced as a result (concentrated on the 300-305K surface,
generally between the 900-800 mb isobaric surface), and this
appears to be favorably offset by idealized divergence aloft in
the vicinity of the right-entrance region of a 70 kt jet streak at
250 mb (centered over north-central PA and arcing ESE-SE).

While 00z hi-res CAM signals are rather limited (with the 00z HREF
suite largely absent of QPF, with the exception of the 00z ARW),
the hourly HRRR runs have started to initialize and pick up on the
convection (02z more significantly so, depicting some 1-3"
totals). While the HRRR seems to want to kill off the convection
rather quickly, the 00z ARW indicates the potential for the
persistence of ~1"/hr localized rates (with slow progression and
backbuilding allowing for localized 2-3" QPF). Given the rather
favorable aforementioned environment for heavy rainfall (with a
particular focus on the highly efficient warm rain processes, as
wet bulb zero heights are around 12k feet) with very sensitive
terrain and wet antecedent conditions (1-3 hr FFGs of 1" or less).
Isolated instances of flash flooding are possible.

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-HlEH793x37spb6u4m2aRY_bwlaSZk-6C8SNRXPKGEeL23U4ShoHcm0icmWIhZbaGk6W= HA_cBO_MHqK44kHzSbUux9k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39697956 39517895 38957909 39017986 39238091=20
39498097 39668073=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 171153
FFGMPD
KSZ000-171531-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0467
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
752 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Areas affected...Central KS...Far Northern OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 171152Z - 171531Z

Summary...Convection has developed upstream of an intense bowing
segment along the KS-OK border. Periodic training of these upwind
cells containing max hourly rainfall rates of 1.5-2"/hr could
support additional flash flooding this morning.

Discussion...Radar depicts an axis of convection developing across
Central KS, upstream of an intense bowing segment currently
located along the KS-OK border. While this bowing segment is
rapidly forward propagating, 2"/hr rainfall rates led to several
reports of flash flooding in the Wichita area earlier, with
additional reports received to the north in McPherson from the
upstream activity.

Objective analysis output suggests the environment in the wake of
this bowing segment will support the maintenance of training cells
for several more hours as a 30-40 kt nocturnal LLJ bisects a NW-SE
oriented stationary front, which was parallel to the NW'ly
effective shear vectors amid 2000-3000 MUCAPE and 1.4-1.7" PWATS.

The HRRR suggests localized amounts upwards of 1.5-2.5" are
possible through 15Z, in addition to the 2-3" estimated earlier.
Thus, additional instances of flash flooding are possible where
these cells can train before the nocturnal LLJ begins to weaken
around 15z, particularly over the Wichita and McPherson areas
currently experiencing flash flooding.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!__DuBJ5itTBL1Ma3F42q_ttOPJv4UYCEEKa_OEThcrkU6m4yNh_TlimHiwZq63wJa2Zx= 5VLhsjhrk0XIoExVPwYwTkI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...ICT...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39459879 38629718 37779656 37119678 37119769=20
37779874 38959953=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 171705
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-172303-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0468
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
104 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Areas affected...Eastern OH Valley...Central Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 171703Z - 172303Z

Summary...Repeating rounds of showers and thunderstorms containing
rainfall rates exceeding 2"/hr at times are expected to produce
scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding this afternoon
-- some significant.

Discussion...Recent trends in Day Cloud Phase RGB and
LightningCast data suggest convection is developing over the Ohio
River Valley and and Central Appalachians as steady moistening and
insolation occur ahead of an approaching vort max in the
Mid-South. A recent cluster of cells near Pittsburgh produced
radar estimated rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr, prompting two Flash
Flood Warnings.

While this activity remains fairly scattered as of now,
mesoanalysis, GPS, and earlier regional soundings show an
increasingly unstable and saturated airmass available for these
maturing cells to tap into, with 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE (with no
CIN), 1.9-2" PWATs (above the daily max for many sites), and
13,000-14,000 foot warm cloud depths. Individual cell motions will
likely be somewhat progressive owing to 25-30 kts of effective
shear across the region, but should assist with overall cell
longevity.

Going forward, the expectation is for coverage and intensity of
cells to increase as the moistening and heating continues while
the upstream vort-max slowly lifts into the Ohio Valley this
afternoon. The overall setup should favor repeating rounds of
thunderstorms along a SSW to NNE axis, with the HREF highlighting
increasing probabilities of 1-2"/hour rainfall rates beginning
around 17-19z. As these rates are realized, both the HREF and REFS
neighborhood probabilities show a high likelihood (above 50%) of
1-3 HR FFG exceedance through 22-23Z. However, even outside of
the area of most intense rates, the combination of repeat rounds
of thunderstorms and low FFGs (at or below 1") suggests scattered
to numerous instances of flash flooding are likely -- some
significant.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-rBBVyn0YYdkhwNFUUk7tKxGbgZvlRuCCS-y-sMehhR96j-vL8RONPLgQU8EhcQ_0x-w= X3KVXJsmCU0d-LKPAq8pNiY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CLE...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41417891 40977746 39777721 38537752 37537917=20
37268015 37648091 38698109 39728184 40428174=20
41168042=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 171833
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-180032-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0469
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
233 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Areas affected...OH Valley...TN Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 171832Z - 180032Z

Summary...Repeating rounds of showers and thunderstorms with
2-2.5"/hr max rainfall rates are expected to produce isolated to
scattered instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Regional radar mosaic highlights a corridor of
expanding showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of a broad
upper-trough and embedded vort-max located in the TN Valley.
Downstream of this feature, a NE-SW oriented confluence axis was
analyzed in the 925-850 hPa layer, which cells are generally
organizing along.

Very moist and unstable inflow characterized by 2-2.1" PWATs,
eventually 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE (in a "tall-skinny" profile), and
warm cloud depths of 13,000-14,000 feet should foster very
efficient warm rain processes with 2-2.5"/hr max rainfall rates --
although sub-hourly rates could be even higher on the storm scale
with cell mergers.=20

As storms expand in coverage this afternoon, the parallel
orientation of the forcing to the steering flow should favor
repeating and merging of cells, prompting isolated to scattered
flash flooding across the area. Both the 12z HREF and REFS
neighborhood probabilities highlight a moderately-high likelihood
(35-50%) of 1-3 HR FFG exceedance as this activity matures through
0z, with the centroid generally located over East-Central KY.
However, even outside of this area, saturated soils per NASA SPoRT
and reduced FFGs (.75-2"/hr) suggest isolated to scattered flash
flooding is likely with scattered rainfall of 2-3" expected across
the area.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4S0bhzzfycvCRr0UZjzQdZXOG2f9LbiaohCD2fdO05_DdC0KaJUJm4FWOwbn9TYxsPhF= MCg766BlaZyWaIKRqaKowNs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HUN...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...MEG...MRX...OHX... PAH...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40058326 39968210 39178139 38138152 37388241=20
36808360 35938497 35128554 34578627 34478786=20
35168888 36178899 38068702 39378505=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 171835
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-180015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0470
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
235 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Areas affected...Southern Kansas...Adj. Far Northern Oklahoma...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 171835Z - 180015Z

SUMMARY...Current training band of elevated cells likely to give
way to stronger, slightly more progressive convective development
further southwest that will track through areas saturated
overnight resulting in 2-3" totals and possible flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...In the wake of this morning's MCS, the overall flow
field is muddled and trying to refocus on rapid surface to low
level cyclogenesis across SW Kansas into the TX/OK Panhandles,
with very strong backed surface to 850mb flow across much of
western OK into south-central SW KS. However, from about
800-700mb solid south to southwesterly flow at 30-40kts becomes
strongly confluent/convergent along the former rear-inflow jet
(arrow to the bow) of the dying MCS. Modified 12z soundings
suggest modest remaining mid-level lapse rates to support MUCAPE
of 1000-1500 J/kg for those convective cells. CIRA LPW shows a
narrow band of enhanced moisture in the 850-700mb layer to suggest
moisture flux is also supportive of efficient rainfall
production/moisture loading for rates of 1.5-2"/hr (given deep
layer TPW is over 1.75, and saturated in the sub-cloud layer to
limit evaporative loss).

Currently, favorable orientation of flow from 700-400mb is
parallel to the CAPE gradient and convergence axis to support some
slow eastward propagation for repeating/training; though trends in
WV and Visible animations (along with VWP) suggests this will
remain in the very short-term (about 1-2 hrs) as digging
outflow/roll cloud further west is starting to become more
orthogonal in the 925-850mb layer. 17z WoFS run suggests 1.5-3"
totals along the training axis, utilizing the 50th-90th
percentiles, which appears reasonable. Though daily totals are
already over 5" per backyard obs in McPherson, KS.

Additionally, the dry line appears to be bulging northeastward
into NW OK further strengthening low level moisture convergence
along the enhanced instability axis along the KS/OK boarder with
MLCAPEs nearing 3000 J/kg (through still strongly capped). As
such additional development on this roll cloud/convergence band
will allow for additional development southwest of the mid-level
rear-inflow band in central to eastern KS. Eventually, these
stronger/broader rotating updrafts having increased moisture
convergence to support 2-2.5"/hr rates (along with larger
hail...see SPC MCDs for additional details) toward 23-00z and in
proximity to the heavy rainfall axis from last evening's MCS
generally near/along I-135/35. Similarly WoFS totals of 1-3" are
possible quickly across south-central KS into the eastern Flint
Hills by 00z, which is agreeable with the HRRR and at least the axis/evolutionary path of the RRFS, providing some additional
confidence.=20

All considering, local totals of 3" in 2-3hrs may lead to possible
localized flash flooding, though if intersecting with Wichita
metro; potential significantly increases given expected 2"+ rates.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7ieIGhXItnM0_1E3AiiepZWI1jZd34gTUqftVwm-TQx9MWhnC8VhBS0QVqQWGWKG55-r= wGCU3La_p4WesGjNIg3w6bc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38709779 38469636 37809488 36949467 36619510=20
36599612 36689740 36879858 37029937 37369992=20
37849986 38459873=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 171917
FFGMPD
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-180030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0471
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
317 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Areas affected...Southeast MS...Alabama...Northwest GA...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 171915Z - 180030Z

SUMMARY...Weakly organized convective cells congealing with
potential for some localized repeating/mergers capable of 2"+/hr
rates and localized totals 2-3" in about 3hrs may result in focus
rapid inundation, particularly near urban centers.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows the very slow moving and narrow
positively tilted mid-level trough across the MS into TN/Lower
Ohio Valleys. Embedded within are two meso-scale shortwave
features that are directing/corralling convective activity into
weakly organized linear features. The lead wave in southern
Middle TN extends some wrap around southwesterly flow to bow out
the deeper layer confluence zone eastward across N AL before it
angles back southwest across west-central AL and southern MS
toward the weaker trailing/tail-end wave near SW MS/NE LA. Deep
layer moisture is well above average with values of 2-2.25"
along/ahead of the deeper layer axis. Traditionally summer like
temperatures in the mid 80s over lower to middle 70s Tds support
ample CAPE over 2000 J/kg for stronger updrafts. Aloft, there is
modest divergence along the eastern right entrance to the jet,
especially given that it is also moderately anticyclonically
arched for broad scale divergence to allow for modest outflow for
a few up/downdraft cycles to help feed moisture flux into the
increasingly confluent band of convection. Effective bulk shear
values are 20-25kts to show some weak organization for linear
features or propagation through outflow boundary/low level convergence/collisions with other outflows.

Still, the overall 10.3um EIR loop and RADAR mosaic shows an
overall broad coverage of these cells capable of short-term bursts
of up to 2"/hr. This is particularly evident from Clarke, MS to
Hale county, AL with a bit of deep layer steering for increased
duration as cells have a few extra minutes of repeating/training
given the north-northeast cell motion along the same oriented
confluence axis. Additional incidents are probable to occur with
time further north and east as the overall trof slowly slips
eastward overall. Hydrologically, the rates up to 2"/hr are
problematic across central AL into NW GA where 1hr FFG are at or
below those rates. These cells are likely to cross larger urban
centers with hydrophobic ground conditions that could be quickly
overwhelmed by the short-term magnitude of heavy rainfall, but
otherwise incidents of flash flooding are likely to be widely
scattered an narrow in areal coverage/focus through the evening
across the area of concern.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4n8NtknnqtpJcEOs-HGenrAnsOsx0lM-cwDHR_rN0AHqducfSoHRzHJ2mtHgwWi73BMj= bnCXOCe9WGgLq3HPT6SlFoA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...JAN...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34958456 34758385 33548471 32548630 31618760=20
31268835 31048917 31268998 31988999 33168892=20
33658826 34288791 34408670 34868581=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 171950
FFGMPD
ARZ000-180100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0472
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
350 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Areas affected...Central Arkansas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 171950Z - 180100Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving cells capable of 2"/hr crossing recently
saturated ground conditions and lowered FFG values, suggest
possible re-aggravation of localized flooding conditions over the
next few hours.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Vis/EIR and KLZK RADAR have shown recent
development across the Ouachita Mountains through central AR.=20
Surface, VWP observations and RAP analysis show a narrow but very
unstable axis in the wake of the mid to upper-level trough that
has crossed the Lower MS River and the approach of the old MCV
from this morning's MCS across KS; where full insolation resulted
in upper 80s Temps over mid to upper 70s Tds and along a subtle
WNW to ESE return moisture axis from surface to 700mb per CIRA
LPW. Air is very unstable within the axis with MLCAPEs over 3000
J/kg. VWP and Visbible Cu streamers suggest 20kts of orthogonal
warm air advection across this moisture axis providing convergence
and weak isentropic gradient for ascent. As such, moisture flux
of this high low level moisture (over 1.75") suggests efficient
rainfall production.=20

Given the strength of updrafts and orthogonal/unobstructed
WAA/moisture flux, rainfall production of 2-2.5"/hr will remain
possible with some weak DPVA to help maintain the strength of the
southwesterly low level inflow for a few more hours as the MCV
passes. Deep layer steering in the wake of the trough also
supports movement perpendicular to the inflow/convergence axis to
allow for possible repeating. However, with that stated, Hi-Res
CAMs are very insistent in weakening environment and overall tops
are warming and erroding (especially further east near the greater
stability from early morning convection/overturning (temps in the
upper 70s). Still, the placement of this convection is
unfortunately aligned with an area that recently received heavy rainfall/flooding and FFG values remain depressed and prone to
exceedance given 1hr values less than 2" and 3hr values less than
2.5". Given this a spot or two of flash flooding is considered
possible over the next few hours.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_WERQ3ZS2Han4lQHEVZ_iph58pKL7H2dw8lCMfI3pmCmJBxAPLbddOWM7cBRUOao3blP= zaJDDG2YX8oTdSYJ4zrgO4c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35139301 34949213 34719154 34359125 34029123=20
33789138 33689186 33849268 34219353 34449393=20
34829415 35129393=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 172041
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-180200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0473
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
441 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Areas affected...Northwest IA...Northeast NEB...Far Southeast
SDAK...Far Southwest MN...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 172040Z - 180200Z

SUMMARY...Very slow/stationary cells along/north of deeper layer
upper-low with favorable outflow to maintain cells. However,
limited instability/moisture may limit overall coverage to be
widely scattered, but highly focused with localized spots of 2-3"
and flash flooding possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows the core of the large
scale/global trough is slowly shifting eastward across central to
eastern NEB with and old smaller scale MCV preceding it across
central IA. Developing convection along/north has very
long/narrow anvils with cirrus tails expanding well downstream
indicative of the very favorable right entrance divergence to the expanding/accelerating jet 90kt 3H jet over the eastern Dakotas
into northern MN. Additionally, those larger mid-level waves
produced extensive clouds across southeast NEB and central IA
inhibiting solar heating this afternoon and sharpening the
differential heating boundary and keeping instability generally
through the Missouri River Valley an back toward the NEB
Sandhills. Remaining pockets of 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE will
provide solid updraft strength for scattered coverage across the
area of concern.=20

Low level flow continues to provide some weak southerly moisture
advection into the deeper layer deformation zone/axis across NW IA
where Total PWat values are a modest 1.5" though convergence/flux
will help to provide that boost for solid rainfall production at
about 1.75"/hr. Given slow cell motions, some locations have
already experienced over 3" resulting in localized flash flooding
along the SDAK/IA state line. Weak cold pools are helping with
some cell motions, weakly propagating southward into the 15-20kts
of inflow and toward remaining pockets of instability. As such,
further expansion of 2-3" areal coverage is possible to expand
flooding conditions, particularly south into the flow and eastward
along the deformation zone north of the MCV. As such, localized
flash flooding remains possible this evening until instability is
fully exhausted.

Note: Similar evolution/cell development is occurring west across
the Sand Hills, given very high FFG values and infiltration
capability, have only expanded the western edge of the MPD area to
the eastern edge these sandy soil areas.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5yRnPWNCZEoumjmpQaLQaFas1GSl_37ozpOAEWWRl3pVLfVbhGpsji75-b6Ll9vracIk= MBbCo7QiEUbfEObexERcYFM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...MPX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43699395 43629339 43349306 42959319 42709343=20
42259417 41889497 41439602 41439694 42539797=20
43399805 43639641=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 172230
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-180430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0474
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
629 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Areas affected...Western/Central PA...Western/Central
MD...DC...Southeast OH...WV...Western VA...Eastern KY...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 172230Z - 180430Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving clusters of intense deep warm cloud rainfall
production across saturated and steep terrain likely to see
additional flash flooding incidents through early overnight
period.

DISCUSSION...22z surface analysis shows a slowing of the eastward
advancement of the warm front across the Allegheny Plateau in
Northern PA but better erosion of the low level stratus across
central MD into south-central PA. However, with weak surface wave
pressing east of the Appalachian Continental Divide, surface to
boundary layer winds have increases along front int MD and
northern VA resulting in dual moisture flux stream into the
eastern portion of MPD area. Strong cluster near Fulton county,
PA is likely to slow with the forward advancement of the front,
but with solid upstream moisture flux streaming out of the Ohio
Valley and then eastward, continued back-building upstream
redevelopment environment will further expand the potential for
intense rainfall. Total PWats over 2" are analyzed though both
lower elevations but even with losing some vertical depth, values
over 1.75" across much of the area of concern with maintained
20-25kts of inflow and sufficient surface theta-E to keep
saturated mid-level lapse rates still unstable with narrow skinny
CAPE profiles should result in continued very efficient rainfall
production with 2"/hr rates in the strongest cores.=20

Aloft, solid right entrance divergence into 50-60kt jet over NY
into New England will likely keep upslope strong though also
support greater forward propagation of cells across SE OH, WV into
W PA, but streaks of quick 1.5-2" in the rugged terrain is likely
to result in localized flash flooding through the overnight.=20
However, there is a sharpening SW to NE line of mid-level
suppression north of the jet axis currently seen from just off
Lake Erie in NE OH back toward NW OH/central IND. This is
pressing southeastward with northern stream height-falls...and
will likely further corral warm-cloud showers for better repeating
potential across SE OH/WV as well. Recent Hi-Res CAMs including
HRRR, RRFS and 19,20,21z WoFS strongly suggest best potential
remains across SW to south-central PA with even some higher
probabilities of locally exceeding an additional 3" inches in
places. This may result in a possible incident or two of significant/considerable flash flooding, within the broader area
of scattered likely flash flooding incidents.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6FL4VG3Y_yRnJpnDnNsFAG5SpxF6r675wqVQzhRLY-sWr0ZfcrL2sn-hGpccGijXGSwv= xxPJiOfEYVhtTa8j-s_GnvM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...JKL...LWX...MRX...PBZ...PHI...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41627873 41417706 40837614 40227577 39747597=20
39127655 38557764 38167860 37487991 37338024=20
36818188 36688288 36748415 37258437 38388288=20
38718261 39238223 40668093 40898047 41517953=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 180017
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-180600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0475
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
817 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Areas affected...Southeast KS...Northern OK...Far Southwest
MO...Ext Northwest AR...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 180015Z - 180600Z

SUMMARY...Strong, slow moving pre-frontal super-cells will grow
upscale while upstream redevelopment on the main front will
provide a secondary wave of intense rainfall likely to support a
broad area of 2-3" with embedded spots of 6"+ likely resulting in
flash flooding conditions through early overnight period.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts multiple smaller scale
convective clusters and shortwave features within the broad
cyclonic global trough the expands the breadth of the Northern and
Central Plains. The main wave is lifting northeast across
southern NEB and was the main driver of last evening's/this
morning's MCS that saturated central and southern KS. In the wake
a strong surface to 850mb cyclone has been evolving across the
Texas Panhandle with well defined warm conveyor belt wrapping very
deep moisture with strong advection across OK into southern KS
pooling 1.75 to near 2" total PWats along the KS/OK boarder. With
stronger EML mixing/bulging northeastward across SW OK, winds have
backed more southerly and have interacted with leading outflow
boundary from this afternoon's activity across south-central KS.=20
A few large/broad updrafts continue to slowly advance across
Sumner/Cowley into expanding into Bulter county. Cells are being
fed by very unstable (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) from northeast OK. WoFS
5-min and HRRR 15 minute along with observations denote the strong
moisture flux is support rates over 2.5"/hr with .5-.7" in 5
minutes and 1.5"/15 minutes forecast from each model respectively.
Steering flow is generally weak as secondary shortwave feature
that has been convectively enhance is digging southeastward out of
the Colorado High Plains. This will allow for clusters to further
grow upscale while providing sufficient residency for 2-3"/hr
totals within the cores. Strengthening LLJ may aid some
southeastward propagation into the northern row(s) of Oklahoma.=20

Additionally, the backed low level flow will have sufficient
instability to develop another round of activity along the front
as seen up toward the heavy rainfall axis across McPherson,
Ellsworth counties, likely to build westward along the front in SW
Kansas. Height-falls and surface outflow will support increased
forward propagation mainly after 02-03z, adding an additional 1-2"
totals and broadening the areal coverage of 2-3" totals across
south-central KS, expanding into northern OK. Where the two
clusters overlap likely near Osage, Kay, Sumner, Cowley, and
Chautaqua county, there is increasing confidence in localized
totals of 3-6" through 06z. WoFS signals have been very
consistent run to run with the mean increasing to near 4-4.5"
while the 90th percentile is becoming focused toward 7" maxima,
while other rapid refresh guidance and Hi-Res CAMs are within that
similar total range. As such, flash flooding is likely to occur
across a large portion of the area of concern as the convective
lines combine through the overnight period, while a few areas
could see considerable to significant flash flooding conditions.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8WX__uF2ewsLZjX2-dICjNx3iwtkMmOq8PB3ivbpw60Gfpc24UpVy93-0e8eAEGCJQo4= XpSUNrjQHxUrHJ2Td61bNeY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38959749 38569555 38119445 37489376 36759371=20
36129430 35749526 35609677 35819850 36219994=20
36979943 37579881 38599879=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 180618
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-181115-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0476
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
217 AM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Areas affected...much of OK into adjacent portions of far
southeast KS, southwest MO, and northwest AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 180615Z - 181115Z

Summary...Backbuilding convection may continue to train from
west-to-east with localized hourly accumulations of 1.5-2.5".
Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are possible.

Discussion...A mature mesoscale convective system (MCS) with an
impressive bow echo has made rapid eastward progress across
northern OK over the past several hours, and more recently (over
the past couple of hours) elevated convection rapidly initiated
and proliferated in the vicinity of the rear inflow jet (RIJ). The
west-east orientation of the elevated convection neatly resembles
a "bow and arrow" mesoscale convective structure, as a strong
low-level jet (LLJ) from the south is resulting in strong moisture transport/isentropic upglide (most prominently around the 925 mb
isobaric surface and the 305K isentropic surface) over prominent
cold pool resulting from the MCS (and aided by low-level
frontogenesis with the close proximity of a front). The "bow and
arrow" conceptual model favors an increasing flash flood threat,
given the tendency with the lagging "arrow" convection to train
from west-to-east (as convection is nearly parallel to both the
850-300 mb mean flow, as well as the forward propagating Corfidi
vectors). Should convection continue to backbuild, this could
present a significant flash flood risk (with training cells
producing localized hourly accumulations of 1.5-2.5", per MRMS
estimates). Over the past hour or so, trailing convection has
started to show a tendency of southward propagation (upwind into
the LLJ, matching the associated Corfidi vectors quite closely),
which may limit the flash flood threat somewhat (though this will
eventually bring the trailing convection into the more populated
OKC metro, additional backbuilding and a cessation of upwind
propagation could ultimately be more problematic with regard to
impactful flash flooding). In addition, convection may locally
have a tendency to train along the north bookend vortex of the bow
(near the OK/KS/MO border region), which has recently result in
hourly totals to 2.0".

Hi-res models have underestimated the intensity and scale of the
backbuilding convection (as they tend to do with convection that
is elevated in nature) across the 00z HREF suite, and hourly runs
of the HRRR and experimental RRFS have not done much better. The
HREF PMM QPF indicates the potential for localized 2-4" over
east-central OK, and it seems reasonable to shift these totals and
resulting post-processed exceedance probabilities (15-25% for 3"
exceedance per 40-km neighborhood method) westward (based on the
aforementioned observational trends). Convection may continue to
backbuild for longer than expected in this environment with a
large reservoir of 2000-3000 J/kg of MUCAPE (max 2-6 km AGL layer
lapse rates of 8.0-8.5 degC/km) and impressive deep layer (0-6 km)
shear of 40-50 kts. Precipitable water values are indicated to be
1.7-2.0 inches (near the max moving average/record levels, per OUN
sounding climatology). Isolated to scattered instances of flash
flooding are considered possible (and may locally be significant,
particularly if storms backbuild and train across the more
populated core of central OK).

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8yPPjHD9RtQWNUpZ8ILdNIXQk14QvZKD0t42GIDzFURtOOihOOK_zuIgoHCsvnK1GRiF= b1vbHj5wUiRMnC55Sv-JpRE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37739456 37259388 36609363 35939372 35149440=20
34859536 34809712 35059853 35919931 36329939=20
36479892 36569838 36519649 36889576 37539542=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 181657
FFGMPD
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-182256-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0477
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1256 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Areas affected...Eastern OH Valley...Northern Mid
Atlantic...Interior Northeast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181656Z - 182256Z

Summary...Shallow thunderstorms are gradually expanding in
coverage and intensity across the Eastern OH Valley, Northern
Mid-Atlantic, and Interior Northeast. Periods of repeating cells
containing 1.5 to locally 2"/hr rainfall rates could support
additional isolated flash flooding this afternoon in light of
recent heavy rainfall in the region.

Discussion...Day Cloud Phase RGB and LightningCast data suggest
shallow thunderstorms across the Eastern OH Valley, Northern
Mid-Atlantic, and Interior Northeast are intensifying as an
extremely moist airmass destabilizes beneath eroding low-level
clouds. The most persistent cells were initially roughly along
I-80 in Western PA, which prompted several Flash Flood Warnings as
they repeated over an area impacted yesterday and realized
1.5-1.8"/hr rainfall rates per KCCX. Additional flooding was also
noted near Buffalo, NY as an axis of cells stalled and trained
overhead.

As highlighted in the 12Z soundings from PIT and IAD, the airmass
across the region remains very supportive for efficient warm rain
production in these cells, with saturated profiles containing
1.7-2.1" PWATs, 1000-2000 J/KG of MUCAPE, and warm cloud layers of 13,000-14,000 feet noted. Sufficient shear remains as well to
support at least loosely organized multicellular storm modes, with
20-35 kts depicted in recent mesoanalysis.

Over the next several hours, a general trend of expanding
multicells is expected as a weak shortwave over Western OH
approaches from the west amid continued surface heating. Westerly
steering flow should permit for periods of repeating cells,
although storm coverage should remain more scattered compared to
yesterday's event. As instability builds and additional cells
form, both the HREF and REFS neighborhood probabilities show an
increasing likelihood of at least 1"/hr rates and 1-3 HR FFG
exceedance beginning around the 17-18z time frame. With FFGs in
the region as low as .25-1.5", additional isolated flash flooding
is possible as these cells expand and periodically repeat.

Asherman=20=20

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6uRcE_EgBXsLRi5pJ0sbzuWgV4XEYN7K2asNVaGFLKdKlAqkR5vEYo0cyJ488jl06vw3= a70HyzBBPh5lllBNkrsXG7o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...LWX...PBZ...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42617863 42507757 41357647 40507484 39587600=20
38627691 38617789 39237850 39597895 40118005=20
40778037 41508026 42247970=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 181802
FFGMPD
MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-190000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0478
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
201 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Areas affected...Northeast IL (including the Chicago
Metro)...Southwest MI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181800Z - 190000Z

Summary...Intense convective complex is translating through IL.
Scattered flash flooding -- some of which could be locally
significant in/near the Chicago metro -- is possible this
afternoon.

Discussion...Intense convective complex continues to track across
Central IL ahead of a well defined MCV located northeast of St.
Louis. The leading corridor of cells was along a NW-SE axis, and
generally forward propagating to the northeast at around 30-40
kts, with an area of showers and thunderstorms wrapping around the
northwest of the MCV, upstream of the forward propagating
activity. Max rainfall rates within this complex were generally on
the order of 1.5"/hr.

Recent mesoanalysis and GPS data suggest a very moist and unstable
airmass is advecting ahead of the complex, with 1.7-1.9" PWATS and
3000-4500 J/kg of MLCAPE depicted in the pre-convective
environment. Recent GOES-E DMW also placed the right entrance
region of a jet streak over Lake Michigan and Wisconsin to further
enhance forcing for ascent ahead of the MCV. As this complex
translates northeastward within 40-50 kts of effective shear,
multiple rounds of precipitation are possible in the MPD area from
1) individual cells within the right entrance region of the jet
streak, 2) along the leading edge of the forward propagating
component and 3) beneath the northwest flank of the MCV.

Over the next several hours, the HREF suggests increasing
probabilities of 2"/hr rainfall rates as this repeating of
precipitations occurs. Accordingly, scattered flash flooding may
result with the HREF suggesting localized rainfall amounts of 2-4"
may fall where these three rounds of precipitation can overlap.
Localized significant flash flooding is possible in sensitive
urbanized areas, including the Chicago metro.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_c3e9VqL6mdILTB0ccabE5kAdG9q2pzWJbWhDN8NMGVaFDbWGdLWh7lhddzJNCHTKwSK= XrJYzXylCmQoRpnUeG8TvWY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...GRR...ILX...IWX...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43698684 43628491 41858506 40788753 40498960=20
41379028 43198864=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 182035
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-190200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0479
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
434 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Areas affected...Western NY...Northwest PA...Extreme Northeast OH

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 182035Z - 190200Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding likely to continue as shortwave
approaches helping to expand convective coverage which will remain
slow moving and very efficient with 1.5-2"/hr rates and localized
totals to 3"+.

DISCUSSION...While the symmetric, mature main upper-low near
southern Lake Michigan dominates the GOES-E WV suite, there
remains a more subtle but similarly impactful compact wave
crossing central Lake Erie currently. This wave is providing
solid DPVA and enhanced west-southwesterly 20-25kts of inflow
while corralling highly anomalous sub-tropical moisture across the
Lower Great Lakes. A well defined surface front exists north of
the Lakes in the Ontario Peninsula and just north of the St.
Lawrence river Valley, but the cold lakes have provided strong
differential heating boundaries to help develop strong
thunderstorms earlier this afternoon. Given this upstream wave,
cells have been very slow moving to the northeast with overall
best motions driven by propagation/redevelopment along outflow
boundaries which have become numerous across the area of concern
(please see graphic for some deliniation).

Given the deep moisture over AoA 2" in Total PWat and deep warm
cloud layers near 12-14Kft; efficient rainfall production has
resulted in 2"/hr rates and numerous incidents of flash flooding.
This trend is likely to maintain itself through the next 3-4 hours
as outflows intersect seeking out remaining pockets of 2000 J/kg
unstable air pockets. Inflow from the southwest and some weak
isallobaric response has limited cell motions and with broader
slabs of ascent with merging boundaries/broader updrafts similar
1.5-2"/hr rates are likely to expand and perhaps intersect/overlap
with initial burst resulting in some localized totals to 3"+
further inducing other localized incidents of flash flooding
(especially in urban centers).

As the evening progresses, stronger convergence along the
shortwave trough axis now nearing the PA/OH state line, will act
as final bout merging and sweeping up the remaining active
convection. Simple mergers may further enhance sub-hourly rates.
As such, scattered to numerous incidents of focused/localized
flash flooding are considered likely through exhaustion of
instability and/or shortwave moves through from west to east.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6EH5Ic01KSZo8ndipk2DzepOHfl6LQgQ7QlgDXImhodUE5V0FdxSiNqp-Q9TU8Ir8Pzj= ujENHkb-Ylopuv45dV0U1bY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...PBZ...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43617639 43217584 42617587 41987662 41567726=20
41167831 40957936 40858030 41088068 41858061=20
42447964 42897909 43387893 43407700=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 182316
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-190430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0480
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
716 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Areas affected...Southern OH...Central KY...Middle TN...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 182315Z - 190430Z

SUMMARY...Increasing convective coverage capable of locally
exceeding lower than normal hourly FFG due to well above normal
soil saturation. Hourly 1-2" totals and some possible short-term
storm scale interactions may allow for some isolated totals over
2-3", resulting in widely scattered low-end incidents of flash
flooding through early overnight period.

DISCUSSION...RADAR mosaic depicts a mature, strong but very
progressive squall line crossing eastern IND into OH. This line
has been fairly consistent in producing .5-1.25" totals along its
path through IND; however, this has not intersected areas of
recent saturation until moving into southwest/southern Ohio.=20
Here, 0-40cm relative soil saturation ratios are at or above 60%
which is well into the 90th to 99th percentile per NASA SPoRT LIS
products and this is more so south across much of KY into western
and Middle TN.=20

However, stronger surface to boundary layer convergence was
slightly weaker and could not break the cap across much of the
pre-frontal pressure trof/convergence boundary. Air remains very
unstable with MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg from Cincinnati across into
Western TN. Ample moisture in the low to mid 70s (Tds) and total
PWats of 1.75 to 1.9", suggest any thunderstorms to develop will
have capability of producing 1.5-2"/hr rates. VWP and RAP
analysis suggest as the MCV is lifting further north the winds had
not been strong enough or have sufficient directional convergence;
but recent trends suggest a slight increase in both wind speed as
the LLJ diurnally strengthens and a slight increase of about 10-15
degrees from 925-850mb has seen a steady southwestward expansion
of the deep moisture convergence axis into western and middle TN.=20
As such, individual cells have broken the cap through much of the
line and continue to expand as they progress eastward.=20

Further north into OH, stronger convergence/mature updrafts have
been been outdone by forward speeds to result in hourly FFG
exceedance, though as they reduce below 1.5" and forward
progression reduces slightly further from the lifting
shortwave/forcing increased duration suggests scattered incidents
of exceedance are possible. Further south, deeper layer steering
flow is a bit more west to east and slower by 5-10kts, also
supporting increased duration. Stronger upstream LLJ/moisture
convergence may also support flanking development within the storm
scale environment to further increase overall duration. Similarly
though, hourly rates of 1.5-2" are likely along the line with
sub-hourly totals expected to be at or slightly above scattered
along the line. As such, low-end flash flooding incidents are
becoming increasingly possible through the late evening/early
overnight period.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7OFUDBMGYjpw1V5tOuJZB-o5oYR3qQA9T73TnoqN69omVoVQ73dbVrDktZFeHaHUH4_t= dUfr4JMRYa4WRTZ_zJtw2WA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...MEG...OHX...PAH...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39948284 39728209 39078151 38158205 37428310=20
36678472 35418817 36328892 37788688 38748549=20
39238484 39838404=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 190511
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-191030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0481
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
110 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Areas affected...Central/Eastern AR...Central/Western
TN...Southwest KY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 190510Z - 191030Z

SUMMARY...Some expansion of heavy shower and thunderstorm activity
is expected over the next few hours. Some cell-training concerns
are expected, and with high rainfall rates, some isolated areas of
flash flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows a digging shortwave trough
across the Midwest, with the leading edge of height falls
impinging on the lower/middle MS Valley. This energy is beginning
to interact with a strong instability gradient that is in place
across central/eastern AR, western TN and parts of southwest KY.
MLCAPE values are on the order of 1500 to 2500 J/kg locally, and
despite the negative influence of boundary layer CIN, recent IR
satellite imagery shows cooling convective tops becoming better
established across eastern AR and into far western TN.

A modest southwest low-level jet currently oriented across the
region is expected to strengthen and become more convergent over
the next few hours and reach 30 to 40+ kts. This will strengthen
the moisture transport across the area, but will also foster
stronger low-level forcing into an area that is already unstable.

A combination of these factors will support some expansion of the
current convective activity, with heavy showers and thunderstorms
also becoming a bit better aligned with the deeper layer mean flow
which will support a cell-training threat. PWs are quite moist
with values of 1.8 to 2.0 inches based on 00Z RAOB soundings and
recent GPS-derived data. The CIRA-ALPW data shows a substantial
level of moisture concentrated in the mid-levels of the column
where much of the vertical ascent will be taking place.

This suggests convection capable of high rainfall rates that may
reach 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour which is generally supported by the
00Z HREF guidance. However, with the cell-training concerns, some
storm totals by dawn may reach 3 to 4+ inches. The HREF guidance
does show some low-end FFG exceedance probabilities, and thus the
expectation is that some isolated areas of flash flooding will be
possible.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6x3IJ-5nN7igBJDozH4IRYtGn08iky7e3IScL7prcbP_D_VoIzRoSIKCel1r5Bk8-U45= iuQXZhYPpLbcCDwcoK7oeuE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HUN...LMK...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37368825 37328650 36598599 35558663 34808852=20
34389048 34589252 35559271 36148994=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 191001
FFGMPD
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-191500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0482
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
600 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Areas affected...Eastern AR...Southwest TN...Northern
MS...Northern AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191000Z - 191500Z

SUMMARY...A well-organized band of heavy showers and thunderstorms
will continue to pose a threat for some additional flash flooding
going through the mid-morning hours.

DISCUSSION...Early morning GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
west to east oriented axis of heavy showers and thunderstorms
extending from northeast AR through much of southwest TN and with
a portion of the line losing latitude and edging into northeast MS
and northern AL.

The cold-topped convection has been showing a considerable amount
of cell-training over the last couple of hours across southwest TN
as the activity becomes aligned with the deeper layer steering
flow. All of the convection continues to be facilitated by the
pooling of a very moist and unstable airmass that is in place
ahead of a shortwave trough advancing east toward the OH Valley
and Mid-South. MLCAPE values are rather impressive early this
morning across central to eastern AR and into southwest TN with a
corridor of 2000 to 3000 J/kg of CAPE aligned with a convergent
west-southwest low-level jet of 30 to 40 kts.

This coupled with at least some modest shear will likely maintain
the convective organization of this linear MCS for at least a few
more hours. PWs are quite moist with values of 1.8 to 2.0 inches
based on recent GPS-derived data, and the depth of moisture
coupled with the instability and strength of the low-level jet
should maintain high rainfall rates that will likely be on the
order of 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour.

The latest hires CAMs suggest some additional training of
convection may occur through mid-morning with the activity also
gradually settling farther south. This will allow for more areas
of eastern AR, northern MS and northern AL to get into some
heavier rainfall potential. In general across the Mid-South, an
additional 3 to 4 inches of rain will be possible, and this will
include southwest TN where there will be concerns for some of
these rains to impact the Memphis metropolitan area.

Given the additional rainfall potential over the next few hours,
some additional areas of flash flooding will be possible.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!__PQZVAc7m9l3XPWmUpSgYvESl4pTxh8ooWX-8ct4JKYvaUA2uKKz4Cv0g1ib_joNPJn= g4WAPY4qldNF9nrONsOJV7I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...LZK...MEG...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35609036 35538830 35008631 34088633 33638759=20
33628946 33849109 34299214 35259212=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 191521
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-191850-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0483
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1121 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Areas affected...Southeast AR...North-Central MS...Western AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191520Z - 191850Z

Summary...Periods of training and repeating thunderstorms within a
persistent MCS will maintain the threat of isolated flash flooding
for at least the next three hours.

Discussion...Regional radar highlights a persistent MCS containing
a forward propagating component across Eastern MS and
North-Central AL, with upwind development occurring further west
along a slow moving cold pool. The alignment of these cells was
leading to periods of repeating and training across the
highlighted area, with 1.5-2.6"/hr rainfall rates estimated within
the most intense cells over North-Central MS.

The development of new cells upstream is likely tied to a
confluent low-level regime in the upwind portion of the cold pool
interacting with a very moist and unstable airmass characterized
by 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE (and minimal CIN), 1.8-1.9" PWATs, and
20-25 kts of effective shear to support new development of loosely
organized cells capable of continued 1.5-2.5"/hr rates.=20=20=20=20
Both the HREF and REFS suggest this training and repeating
activity will continue for at the next three hours -- albeit with
some uncertainty regarding the persistence owing to how CAMs have
struggled with the cold pool. However, the HREF and REFS suggest
localized amounts of 2-3 inches remain possible through 18z, which
could locally breach FFGs in the region and cause isolated flash
flooding.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5mFJOs-EveGwM4s_VAQ7n4yIwmDh1ab-i84SQ1MZp7fF9Sg21bRODP--wA9DlvNRKU2I= Or2tiZdo-e8JA9Tkzu1Re5g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LZK...MEG...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34649171 34338950 33968828 33218711 32458722=20
32168815 32488964 33669159=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 191809
FFGMPD NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ00= 0-KYZ000-200008-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0484
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
208 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Areas affected...Central Appalachians..Interior Northeast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191808Z - 200008Z

Summary...Expanding coverage of brief but intense thunderstorms
with sub-hourly rainfall rates upwards of .50-1"/15 min could
cause isolated to scattered flash flooding this afternoon.

Discussion...Trends in visible satellite imagery area depict an
increasingly unstable PBL interspersed with intensifying clusters
of thunderstorms ahead an upper-trough and cold front over the OH
Valley.

While this activity organizes, a strengthening jet-streak over the
Interior Northeast is forecast to enhance southwesterly low-level
flow into the warm sector and yield 1.7-2" PWATs, 1000-3000 J/kg
of MLCAPE, and 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear across the region
over the next few hours. Accordingly, storms should intensify into
multicell clusters and supercells containing .5-1"/15 minute rain
rates embedded within linear segments along an ENE-SSW axis ahead
of the lee-trough and cold front -- refer to SPC MCD 1364 for the
latest on the severe threat with these storms.

While the scattered nature of the storms and progressive storm
motions should limit a prolonged flash flood threat, brief
training and repeating of these intense rates could easily breach
the low .25-1"/hr FFGs across the region. As such, the HREF and
REFS denote increasing probabilities of 1-3 HR FFG exceedance
beginning around 18-19z, which suggests an increasing risk of isolated-scattered flash flooding going forward today.

Asherman=20

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9Bdmotk_OzDU9y-IVlXOkYLaAYyrOO725xTqPhsSZYgycWLao7WHU6MKZnsv8wNSg7pF= dM0CuarfZl7okdQdRZCJAbI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...ALY...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...GSP...JKL... LWX...MRX...OKX...PBZ...PHI...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42997866 42497621 42227396 40077489 38377691=20
36827942 35888163 36708295 39308143 42058012=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 191826
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-200000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0485
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
226 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Areas affected...Central Arkasas...West-central Mississippi...Far
Northern Louisiana...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191830Z - 200000Z

SUMMARY...Delicate balance of weak inflow and convergence to
maintain thunderstorms in a favorable slow/repeating steering
environment. Fairly saturated upper-soils may result in increased
runoff and possible localized incident(s) of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic depicts the main core of the
outflow boundary from this morning's MCS continue to accelerate
southward across eastern MS/western AL as the core of the cold
pool presses south-southeastward starting to break out new
convection along its leading edge. Upstream, however, the affects
of the cold pool are much less as the overall larger scale
forcing/shortwave slides northeast across the upper-TN Valley.=20
Yet, the tail end of the cold front is hanging around with weak
northwesterly flow and drier air helping to tighten the theta-E
gradient across E OK into central AR. Temperatures are nearing
90F whil Tds are in the mid to upper 70s, with ample pooled
850-700mb moisture noted in CIRA LPW along the intersection of the
outflow boundary to the cold front along the MS River. CIRA LPW=20
does note that mid-level drying has mixed in across the region and
the combination of slightly steeper lapse rates in this region has
bumped up MLCAPEs to 3000-3500 J/kg.=20=20

The key will be prolonged/sufficient low level inflow/convergence
to maintain convective development. Currently, VWP at LZK/SHV and
boundary layer cu tracers suggest 15-20kts of
confluent/convergence across central AR to help spark the initial
convective development. RAP analysis of bulk shear suggests
proximity of the mid-level flow is sufficient for 20-25kts to
maintain weak organization and while right entrance divergence is
best maximized downstream across the convective cores east of the
MS River, there should be enough tilt to allow for a few updraft
cycles.=20

As noted, total PWat values are AoA 2" with the weak inflow
suggest solid moisture loading for 1.75-2"/hr rates, but updrafts
may still be fairly narrow. However, with expected 10-15kts of
upstream confluence flow into the boundary layer, convergence on
outflows and deep layer steering along/just southeast of the
frontal zone should allow for some repeating/training potential.
Allowing for 2-3" localized totals. While FFG seems to have
rebounded to normal/average values, the upper-soils remain fairly
saturated at over 60% per NASA SPoRT LIS products which are well
into the 90th percentile. This suggests, given the intensity of
the rates, reduced infiltration and increased runoff potential.=20
If the updrafts are broad enough, localized flash flooding is
considered possible through the afternoon.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!73t4Php53iecAKRRi2iXTQBbsAIsJM_fLLQ2To9HVyuGtWM9kPQLPyAoyt_XpTnFFDxU= tI_NVvC2cfP_fD4ug76ZmWw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35059363 34839237 34409167 33469014 32818991=20
32369058 33149241 33649331 34309422 34829424=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 191920
FFGMPD
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-200100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0486
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
319 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Areas affected...Interior New England...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191920Z - 200100Z

SUMMARY...Intense,efficient rainfall producing thunderstorms with
capability of 1.5-2"/hr rates and some repeating further northeast
into Maine, may result in localized 2-3" totals and possible
incidents of flash flooding given complex/steep terrain.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows a strong/fairly compact
shortwave cyclone crossing the Lower Great Lakes with a broad jet
streak across much of Quebec, resulting in favorable right
entrance ascent downstream into Interior New England. RAP 500mb
analysis shows a shortwave ridge axis through southern Quebec into
VT and this seems to make a weak southern stream shortwave or
remnant MCV-like feature matched with it. This wave seems to have
supported a subtle 1001 wave along the stationary front near CWBW,
and a weak surface trof appears within the Champlain Valley and
seems to be a weak convergence zone that extends along the
southern Adirondack Mtns into E NY. Surface Tds in the upper 60s,
lower 70s expand across the area of concern toward a lifting warm
front from CWHV to BNR to near Portland. Temperatures have risen
to the mid to upper 80s across VT/N NH supporting MLCAPE rising
into the 1000-1500 J/kg range. CIRA LPW and RAP analysis also
confirms that moisture as pool along/downstream of this weak
shortwave feature with total Pwats in the 1.75-2" range. The
combination of factors suggest very heavy rainfall potential will
exist with stronger updrafts crossing the area.

Current RADAR shows steady increase along this convergence trof
and though strongest convergence/moisture is north of the boarder,
the potential for rainfall rates of 2"/hr are solid. The limiting
factor to reaching those hourly totals will be duration and deep
layer steering is fairly robust at 30-40kts. As updrafts broaden
streaks of 1.5-2" totals are probable, though best probability for
those totals remains in S Quebec near the low/frontal zone where
convergence can be further maximized. However, eventually, those
cells will cross back into northern Maine and if there are some
repeating rounds (given upstream forcing remains strong, it seems
possible), spots of 2-3" totals are possible.

Irrespective of totals, the very intense quick burst of 1-1.5"
across complex terrain (1hr FFG in 1.5-2" range) still should pose
localized flash flooding risks...and any increase in duration due
to storms scale interaction/terrain locking would obviously pose a
greater risk, but given Hi-Res CAM solutions/evolution that
evolution remains uncertain and lower confidence overall.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_pkZC73NZ8wjbZxFrOtyF5bTokhE-uYcfhblRfIpctdnqtNfbce4qGaUQ87dcxJUiA2r= ecgzNghach_tBzqWhF8gVi4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BTV...CAR...GYX...

ATTN...RFC...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 47456935 47446854 47216813 46426839 45846880=20
44766973 44057114 42997229 42567369 42877469=20
43487478 44287387 45077333 45077319 45177170=20
45837075 46707025=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 200030
FFGMPD
MEZ000-NHZ000-200600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0487
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
830 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Areas affected...Northern Maine...Northern New Hampshire...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 200030Z - 200600Z

SUMMARY...Strong squall line with up to 2"/hr rates with scattered
upstream cells capable of repeating through areas affected
initially. Localized totals to 2-3" by 06z, continuing risk for
localized flash flooding into the early overnight period.

DISCUSSION...RADAR starting to show squall line taking on more
embedded bowing segments as the line reaches the lifting warm
front across northern ME and the instability gradient. Subtle
shortwave, weak height-falls driving the low level
backed/convergent flow continues to lift northeast into the
upriver portions of the St. Lawrence Seaway. As such, forward
propagation speeds are starting to flatten the convective line
allowing for increased heavy rainfall duration. Given total PWats
still in the 1.75"+ range and ample remaining MLCAPE convective
line is likely to maintain capability of 1.5-2"/hr rates and with
increased duration of training, 1-2 hours may start to result in
localized 2-3" totals along the band.

While the deep layer moisture is exiting with the wave/drying
slightly upstream, the LLJ is strengthening with winds increasing
from 25-30kts toward 35kts, favoring upwind convergence. This may
support flanking line/back-building development with time.
Also, given the lingering west to east outflow boundary upstream
is also orientating favorably for some increased orthogonal
isentropic ascent in the upstream unstable airmass over NE NY into
VT (as well as clusters in S Quebec near the surface boundary),
will allow for additional development to potentially repeat across
areas that have been recently saturated. As such, widely
scattered/localized flash flooding remains possible through the
early overnight period across Northern NH and ME.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7KRPftpJHxuycNIoO_CWAclCdjsqFHX5y2lpqMgEWzp3ZNCllrAM6bTII5bTJTiDsTKG= OuS7phihPTOMY_-shXw3LRY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

ATTN...RFC...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 46916783 45866769 45536779 45326825 44876933=20
44457021 44287146 45027140 45357115 45567081=20
46127039 46667004 46906933=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 210202
FFGMPD
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-NDZ000-210800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0488
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1001 PM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Areas affected...eastern North Dakota, northern Minnesota,
northwestern Wisconsin

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 210200Z - 210800Z

Summary...Convection is expected to rapidly deepen and expand in
coverage across the discussion area in the 03-08Z (10p-3a CDT)
timeframe. These storms will exhibit mergers and localized
training, with a risk of 2 inch/hr rain rates and a few areas of
flash flooding.

Discussion...Intense, deep convection has begun to quickly forward
propagate eastward across southwestern South Dakota. Meanwhile,
isolated cells have formed on the nose of strengthening low-level
flow across eastern South Dakota, with supercellular structures
noted near Jamestown, ND. These storms are exhibiting a limited
flash flood risk at the moment, with fast storm motions across
western North Dakota and isolated storm coverage in eastern North
Dakota both limiting the spatial extent of any heavy rainfall. A
few spots of 2 inch/hr rain rates near Jamestown could prompt
isolated flash flood issues in the short term.

Over time (more likely after 03Z/10p CDT), increasing low-level
flow across the eastern Dakotas and strong speed convergence along
the nose of that low-level flow across northern Minnesota will
combine with strong instability (1500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) to produce
widespread thunderstorm activity. These storms should eventually
concentrate along an axis from near/north of Fargo to ner Duluth.=20
They'll also form in close enough proximity to promote occasional
mergers and localized training, with spots of 2 inch/hr rain rates
expected at times. Additionally, storms should eventually merge
with upstream convection across North Dakota, providing further
opportunity for prolonging of heavy rain rates at any one spot.=20
Widespread 1-3 inch rainfall totals are expected beneath the
convection, with local amounts of 5 inches possible where
training/mergers are most pronounced. These rates will fall on
areas of 1-2 inch/hr FFG thresholds (lowest along the ND/MN border
and across northeastern Minnesota), with exceedence expected at
times. Flash flooding is possible in this scenario.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-Jy1OECamoSmfT4u0aW2Hzlx6jsyMA6UbK8afi-2qJMbkOjaMRnxQSJyh3fZX4dABMPr= 6Xnz7xYxQZmnqwjag3tXK5Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...DLH...FGF...GRB...MPX...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 48909458 48399232 47819106 47079065 45809004=20
45429061 45729145 46589408 46639663 46399986=20
46820093 47540036 47839969 48409860 48889700=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 220531
FFGMPD
VTZ000-NYZ000-221130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0489
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
130 AM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Areas affected...Northern and Central NY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 220530Z - 221130Z

SUMMARY...Strong convective complex over southeast Ontario will be
arriving across northern and central NY over the next several
hours. Some localized cell-training concerns are expected which
may result in some areas of flash flooding early this morning.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with
MRMS data shows a well-organized QLCS dropping down across
southeast Ontario, with the convective mass associated with a
strong shortwave embedded within deep layer west-northwest flow
situated around the northeast flank of a deep layer subtropical
ridge over the Midwest and Great Lakes region.

Very cold convective tops are noted with the southwest flank of
the convective complex, with some overshooting tops as cold as
about -70C. Strong warm air advection and moisture transport
associated with a 50+ kt southwest low-level jet is seen riding up
across the lower Great Lakes region and far southeast Ontario, and
there is a nose of strong elevated instability aimed into the
southwest flank of the convective mass with MUCAPE values of 2000
to 3000 J/kg.

The robust moisture and instability transport into far southeast
Ontario will begin overspreading areas of northern NY over the
couple of hours as the shortwave energy approaches. This coupled
with strong effective bulk shear values of 40 to 50+ kts will
favor arrival of a well-organized band of convection, with the
QLCS losing latitude and dropping southeastward across northern
and eventually central NY going through early this morning.

Rainfall rates with this activity as it has been traversing
Ontario overnight have been well into the 1 to 2 inch/hour range,
with some cell-training that has fostered storm totals of 2 to 4
inches.

As this activity arrives down across northern and central NY, the
southwest flank of the convective mass may continue to be a focus
for cell-training as some of the convection becomes aligned more
parallel to the deeper layer steering flow. Similar rainfall rates
and totals are expected as this QLCS arrives over the next several
hours, and this may drive at least some areas of flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!90hGePaoSpp5LcsF_fO6Mqd_Pe2sGOedy6UO8mH4JPJZvrEOn6znH5H7RbpBw9u37nRY= nXtsDeFevGYBmUd4F_etbVU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BTV...BUF...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44977381 44537318 43167351 42377450 42337615=20
42707711 43227723 43417673 43677638 44447591=20
44967497=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 220951
FFGMPD
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-221430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0490
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
550 AM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Areas affected...Central/Southern NY...Northeast PA...Northwest NJ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 220950Z - 221430Z

SUMMARY...A strong convective complex over central NY will drop
down into areas of southern NY, northeast PA and northwest NJ this
morning. Locally significant cell-training concerns will exist,
and this will likely support areas of flash flooding going through
at least mid-morning.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a strong
cold-topped convective complex over central NY which is losing
latitude and is expected to drop down into areas of southern NY,
northeast PA and northwest NJ going through the mid-morning hours.

This convection mass is being enhanced around its southwest flank
where there is a strong and convergent westerly low-level jet of
40 to 50+ kts, and this is yielding strong moisture and
instability transport. A nose of MUCAPE values of 1000 to 2000+
J/kg is seen arriving across much of western and central NY, with
PWs locally up near 1.75 inches.

A notable cell-training threat will exist over the next few hours
across areas of central and southern NY in particular given the
interaction of the westerly low-level jet with the convectively
enhanced cold pool. The latest RAP analysis shows strong
convergence around the western flank of the MCS, and with the
upstream instability combined with isentropic ascent over the cold
pool, there will be a likelihood for cell-regeneration over the
next few hours in a general north-northwest to south-southeast
fashion in behind the initial convective bow which will drive the
cell-training threat.

Rainfall rates with the ongoing activity across central NY have
recently been upwards of 2 inches/hour based on MRMS data, and
similar rates are expected at least for a few more hours. There
are uncertainties with the character of this MCS as it approaches
and overspreads areas of northeast PA and northwest NJ, but some
cell-training concerns could potentially settle down into these
areas as well. Overall, the latest hires CAM guidance is doing a
poor job with respect to the placement and intensity of the
convection as most of the solutions are too slow and also tending
to weaken the activity too quickly.

Going through mid-morning, some additional rainfall totals of 2 to
4 inches along the path of the MCS will be possible, with isolated
heavier amounts not out of the question given the cell-training
concerns. Areas of flash flooding are already occurring in central
NY, and with rather low FFG values in general across central and
southern NY through northeast PA and northwest NJ, there will be a
likelihood of seeing more flash flooding going through the
mid-morning hours from these rains.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-scO5DMf6_J5cNLfgaJiGmfzhK_w5adIQJzu9BVk2DJgOgmVwcvbMz9vhOBwAutmie0U= jiP429lGM_KGwWcSEKWjE1E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43577562 43247443 42327375 41607384 41017477=20
41287590 41827645 42497670 43217642=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 221536
FFGMPD
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-222030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0492
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1136 AM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Pennsylvania and West-Central New York

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 221535Z - 222030Z

SUMMARY...A threat for repeating thunderstorms continues through
the afternoon over portions of northeast PA and west-central NY
where flash flooding is possible. This activity should remain west
of the extreme rainfall from this morning in southern NY. However,
areas south and west of there are vulnerable to flooding given the
terrain and low flash flood guidance.

DISCUSSION...A slow moving western front left over from extreme
rainfall in southern NY is the focus for continued convection over
west-central NY and northeast PA. Recent uptick in activity there
has resumed 1"/hr rainfall (in Susquehanna Co PA) due to repeating
development as upper level steering flow is nearly parallel to
this front. Low level westerly flow has diminished from this
morning, but remains around 25kt at 850mb per NEXRAD VAD Wind
Profiles (such as KCCX).

Pooled elevated moisture (PW around 2.0") and a strong gradient in
MLCAPE will continue to allow further development through the peak
diurnal hours. Cell-training will continue to be a threat in this
rather static mesoscale pattern.

A question remains as to how far west this activity develops. Over
the past hour, the progression west has greatly slowed which means
continued training is a threat and could grow more considerable as
indicated by 12Z ARW2/FV3LAM/NAMnest. Given 1hr FFG is below 1.5"
there is a localized flash flood threat that may yet expand in coverage/intensity if the training activity does stall.

Going through the afternoon morning, additional rainfall totals of
1 to 3 inches along this frontal zone, and thus flash flooding are
possible.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7uatsuElLPeTHV-pUs3Ks0CQx1niQy5qJB0GzdozDli76jCVvTakiQz6EcHFwnKNydDZ= mWyQBZaOTQToiEl_JrV5Ntc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...CTP...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42767651 42537579 41887532 41047493 40467502=20
40267563 40747653 41407679 42457730=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 221335
FFGMPD
MNZ000-NDZ000-221830-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0491
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
934 AM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Areas affected...Eastern North Dakota and Northwest Minnesota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 221333Z - 221830Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving heavy thunderstorms developing over eastern
ND will continue to shift northeast, but backbuild into the
southwesterly deep layer flow, prolonging rainfall duration.
Localized flash flooding is possible through midday.

DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar and satellite indicate rapid
development of a thunderstorm complex over east-central ND along a
low level trough above a stationary surface front and northwest of
a surface low. Recent rainfall estimates from KMVX have reached 2"
in Foster County in a little less than an hour. This is developing
in a moist/unstable environment. A lobe of elevated moisture (PW
up to 1.8" per the RAP) will continue shifting northeast over the
Red River of the North valley through midday and there is a strong
ML CAPE gradient SW to NE that exceeds 3000 J/kg east of the
current activity.

35kt deep layer SWly flow will keep advecting the moisture north,
though upwind Corfidi vectors point east which should continue to
allow backbuilding. Through midday, rainfall of 1-3" can be
expected in a short time frame/near one hour. 1hr FFG decreases
ahead of the current activity to below 2". Localized exceedance of
FFG is expected to continue, making for a possible flash flood
threat through midday.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9lF-Qb33x6N65pyajLEA4S_tT0z27ntmB3N__7hhYIltE7t9Z2pDwtThoK_GB5ygXGmr= vQxf0Z5nIO2k9DxQcKzWKDw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 49029618 48289537 46179544 46929730 47309959=20
48149933 49009832=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 222019
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-230217-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0493
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
418 PM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Areas affected...portions of far west Texas into eastern New
Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 222017Z - 230217Z

Summary...Scattered, slow-moving thunderstorms will continue to
develop across portions of the TransPecos and southeastern New
Mexico this afternoon. The combination of slow storm movement and
cell mergers should allow for spots of 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates to
develop, likely prompting flash flooding in a few locales.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorm activity has materialized
along a surface trough/dryline extending from near SRR/Alto, NM
southward through KVHN/Van Horn, TX. The storms are in a
marginally sheared environment (20 kts effective shear), but
reside in a zone of persistent low-level convergence and
orographic ascent especially across far west Texas. 1-1.4 inch PW
values, slow storm movement, and occasional cell mergers will
eventually lead to spots of 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates as storms
mature through the early evening. An increase in convective
coverage is depicted by CAMs over the next 2-4 hours, which is
reasonable given widespread deepening convective cumulus across
the discussion area amid ~1000 J/kg MLCAPE.

As convective coverage increases this afternoon, 1-1.5 inch/hr
rain rates will fall on areas of sensitive/urban terrain. 1.5
inch/hr FFG thresholds exist across most of the discussion area,
which should be exceeded at times. Flash flooding is likely on an
isolated to scattered basis through at least 02Z/9p CDT.

Cook=20=20=20

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9Tli1qtU_ms7-Cd62gqeOrC7r8HhS3Yxh8IOKl3Y2tZs7Rx9AKdC6liQ8ZAz_Czr8aAX= SFokChvMOzP9rM2JDMIt0rQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35830416 35680296 34770267 33090351 31040288=20
29950259 29060323 30680499 31630606 33320608=20
35260513=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 222044
FFGMPD
NDZ000-222300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0494
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
443 PM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Areas affected...central/northeastern North Dakota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 222042Z - 222300Z

Summary...A band of elevated convection has developed across
central North Dakota, while obtaining a favorable orientation for
training. Areas of 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates can be expected while
the band persists, prompting isolated flash flood potential.

Discussion...In the past half hour or so, convection along an axis
extending from 50 miles northeast of Bismarck to ~20 miles west of
Langdon has exhibited increasing organization and training. This
band of convection was elevated, but likely tied to strong
convergence along an 850mb trough in the area. The region also
resides on the western fringes of very steep lapse rates aloft,
and its SSW-NNE orientation is favorably oriented to steering flow
aloft for training. Areas of 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates have
already been observed within this band - especially just northeast
of Bismarck.

The temporal extent of this flash flood risk is a bit uncertain,
with models not handling the ongoing training convection
particularly well. At least 2-3 hours of convective training can
be expected within this axis, resulting in spots of 3-4 inch
rainfall totals through 22-23Z. The mesoscale organization of the
complex may not persist beyond that point as the band lifts
quickly north-northeastward into south-central Canadian provinces.
Convective trends will be monitored for additional heavy rain
potential beyond 23Z/6p CDT.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6dHjX62Ujp2c7YgScLGrE4Bx9KLq2BOKMXuxkfNZoxq1KLA2zMfmgfdbQxjASVQQgc27= ELlf8pvBWP5ieP_1o0T1fwk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 49169903 49109803 48619789 47709860 46969994=20
47020079 47580052 48030037 48789983=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 230320
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-230800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0495
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1118 PM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Areas affected...Southwest to West-Central TX...Southeast NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 230318Z - 230800Z

SUMMARY...Locally slow-moving clusters of heavy showers and
thunderstorms will continue into a portion of the overnight
period. Some additional scattered areas of flash flooding will be
likely from the high rainfall rates.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery is showing a
few slow-moving convective clusters across portions of southwest
TX and into southeast NM. The convection is embedded within a very
moist and moderately unstable environment characterized by PWs of
1.5 to 1.7 inches, and MLCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg.

Some weak vort energy is noted in WV satellite imagery lifting
northeastward across the region within the deeper layer southwest
flow over the region, and this is providing for some localized
stronger forcing/ascent for this activity. Cooling convective tops
have been noted over the last hour, and based off MRMS data, some
of the rainfall rates have been as high as 1.5 to 2 inches/hour.

Over the next few hours, the slow cell-motions associated with the
convection will favor some storm totals that may reach 3 to 4+
inches, and this is supported by some of the 00Z HREF solutions.
The HREF consensus generally supports the greater concentrations
of heavy rainfall focusing over southwest TX where the guidance
indicates somewhat stronger mid-level forcing/vort energy.

Given the additional rainfall threat, some additional scattered
areas of flash flooding are generally likely.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-QDjP1j0rIeJgBzvcmxgzkm5XJTCq46AavGrUWC14XCvgbNB9Sc2EDxo8WLUx2a7VzR0= UZS2qyi5HGzpzvZeVkRmSy8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34290281 34050204 32930211 31090324 29560370=20
29530438 29860484 30460492 30940537 31440514=20
32630402 33950347=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 232032
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-240231-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0497
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
432 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Areas affected...southeastern Minnesota, northeastern Iowa,
central/southern Wisconsin, far northern Illinois

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 232031Z - 240231Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms are increasing in organization
and intensity across southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin,
with areas of 1-1.75 inch/hr rain rates now being observed. These
rates will promote isolated/spotty flash flood potential across
the discussion area through 02Z/10pm CDT this evening.

Discussion...Thunderstorms were increasing in coverage and
intensity - especially across southeastern Minnesota where 1-1.75
inch/hr rain rates were estimated per MRMS. The cells are
embedded in deep southwesterly flow aloft along with weak/modest
low-level shear, suggesting outflow-dominance and potential for
multiple cell mergers to locally prolong rain rates. The cells
are in a strongly unstable, moist airmass (3000 J/kg MLCAPE, 2
inch PW values), supporting intense and efficient downdrafts and
local rain rates exceeding 2 inches/hr. These rain rates will
approach/locally exceed FFG thresholds, supporting isolated flash
flood potential in the near term.

Eventually, cells will further congeal into one or two
forward-propagating convective complexes over the course of the
afternoon. The upscale growth should allow for continued heavy
rain potential along with more of a southward component of translation/development of heavy rain axes into more of southern
Wisconsin, northeastern Iowa, and adjacent areas. The uncapped
airmass southeast of ongoing convection and broad low-level confluence/convergence suggests that newer convection will merge
with evolving complexes and aid in continued heavy rain potential,
with spots of 2 inch/hr rain rates continuing. Isolated instances
of flash flooding are expected through the evening as a result.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-m494f14f_IDXdcqs8x068e1qyax8IkhETHjSurrAhb-Dh3t0EwEJLtfNcaN9Wsi4ihU= aFOhNYumPMdFL-RZ7GaFUlQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...GRB...LOT...MKX...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44778792 43838768 43048803 42368880 41969068=20
41649296 42329364 43279343 44019256 44679043=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 232127
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-240326-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0498
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
526 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Areas affected...central/northeastern Kansas into central iowa

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 232126Z - 240326Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms will gradually increase in
coverage through 03Z/10p CDT across the discussion area. These
storms will also gradually organize into bands fostering
training/mergers, with rain rates exceeding 2 inches/hr at times.
Flash flooding is expected on an isolated to scattered basis.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms continue to expand in
coverage 1) along and just north of a surface cold front extending
from near Hays, KS to near Mason City, IA and 2) ahead of this
front across much of central Kansas. The storms are embedded in
deep southwesterly flow aloft, with marginal low-level shear
contributing to loosely organized cells and clusters that are
primarily outflow dominant in nature. Cells were drifting
northeastward while merging, resulting in localized spots of 1
inch/hr rain rates especially from central Kansas into
southwestern Iowa. These rates are falling well below FFG
thresholds (generally in the 2.5 inch/hr range), suggestive of an isolated/spotty flash flood risk in the near term (through 22Z or
so).

Over time, convective coverage should expand with continued
surface heating and a weakly capped airmass. Meanwhile, 850mb
flow should increase into the 25-30kt range while promoting
convergence along the surface front. The strong southwesterly
flow should also maintain both moisture (2+ inch PW values) and
instability (3000 J/kg MLCAPE) Each of these factors support an
increasing flash flood risk as areas of 2-3 inch/hr rain rates
materialize. Sensitive/urbanized areas should experience the
greatest flash flood risk in this scenario. Scattered storms
should continue to grow upscale into bands promoting training and
mergers, and development of one or two forward-propagating
convective complex is likely especially from northeastern Kansas
into southwestern Iowa. Isolated to scattered flash flooding is
likely in this scenario.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9w9idsvK4vkaJsp-R3A420YwzqDK-j7FM6erI3URNlZs40zt8Cam0UIY7MlqXmMIbFX2= 27bnPdX326iNvtZl3ymLm9o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...DMX...DVN...EAX...GID...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 42589334 42339222 41829171 40599262 38619539=20
37499673 37219792 37269959 37660022 38380010=20
39379885 40299814 41739523=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 232143
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NMZ000-240342-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0499
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
543 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Areas affected...portions of the Texas Panhandle, Texas South
Plains, southeastern New Mexico, far northwest Oklahoma, far
southwest Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 232142Z - 240342Z

Summary...Scattered, slow-moving thunderstorms were drifting
northward while occasionally merging, resulting in spots of 1-2
inch/hr rain rates. These trends should continue for a few hours
this afternoon, prompting an isolated flash flood risk especially
in low-lying/sensitive areas.

Discussion...Recent radar mosaic imagery depicts maturing
convective cells in scattered fashion generally extending from
Perryton, TX south-southwestward through Amarillo, Lubbock, and
Hobbs, NM. These storms were drifting northward amid deep, but
weak, southerly steering flow across the region. The storms were
embedded in a very moist, unstable pre-convective environment,
with ~2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 1.75-2 inch PW values contributing to
strong updrafts and efficient rain rates. Weak shear and weak
inhibition has enabled multiple outflow-driven cells to
materialize, with several cell mergers and slow cell movement
contributing to areas of 1.5-3 inch/hr rain rates in a few spots.
Local FFGs are as low as 1.5 inch/hr in spots across the
discussion area, suggestive of isolated flash flood potential
currently existing in the most sensitive areas.

These trends should continue through the evening hours as
continued solar insolation promotes new updrafts/development in
areas unaffected by current convection and outflows. Models
suggest a diurnally driven convective threat, with gradual
weakening of storms after sunset/02Z or so. The flash flood
threat will likely be diurnally driven as well.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9ytSuizQuw-fdxJBu5_XB8t25iOUfBGEwdA4xnLh-ZD0tbRA1M2h8eZrFXr5FYnUFb9r= xVjHgFf-VJbs7vouFfFl1nc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...DDC...LUB...MAF...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37479921 36939907 35939953 34080098 32490206=20
31930264 32580374 33790408 35510295 36810141=20
37439978=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 240336
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-240735-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0500
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1135 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Areas affected...Southern NM...Southwest TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240335Z - 240735Z

SUMMARY...Clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms will
continue to pulse going into the overnight hours across portions
of southern NM and into southwest TX. High rainfall rates and
locally slow cell-motions will continue a threat for flash
flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows areas of
cold-topped convection continuing to regenerate and locally
persist across areas of southern NM and down into southwest TX.
The environment remains very moist with PWs in the 90th to 95th
percentile of climatology this evening. Despite the convection
that has already occurred through the evening, there still remains
pockets of instability with MLCAPE values locally over 1000 J/kg.

There is some weak mid-level vort energy lifting slowly
northeastward across far northern Mexico which may lift into
southern NM and far southwest TX overnight, and this energy will
likely support at least some sustenance of convection given the
very moist environment and the lingering instability.

The moisture concentrations in the mid and upper-levels of the
vertical column are quite impressive based off the CIRA-ALPW
analyses and this should favor rather efficient rainfall processes
for additional high-end rainfall rates. Some rates with the
stronger storms that persist over the next few hours may still be
capable of reaching 2 inches/hour. The slow cell-motions will
support additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 4+ inches.

Additional areas of flash flooding will be possible, and this will
especially be the case around some of the normally dry
washes/arroyos and localized burn scar areas which are sensitive
to heavy rainfall.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6GmEjehXi64hq1xaAqmgwG35h_BLjMYWj2FiHtIYIgpaf7GrWGmp-Xj24plTyXqJ_fs6= KtG3a77JVOQtFeMPty61tBg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34230585 33900454 32800346 30990293 29490277=20
29070342 29570448 30740551 31270620 32210700=20
33530707=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 240418
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-241000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0501
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1217 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Areas affected...Central/Eastern KS...Northwest MO...Southern IA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240417Z - 241000Z

SUMMARY...Areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue
overnight across portions of central and eastern KS, northwest MO
and southern IA. Some additional concerns for flash flooding will
exist from slow-moving cells and high rainfall rates.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
southwest to northeast axis of broken shower and thunderstorm
activity extending from central KS northeastward through northwest
MO and into southern IA. The activity is focused along and south
of a well-defined frontal zone with a very moist and unstable
airmass pooled up along it. PWs of 1.75 to 2 inches, with MLCAPE
values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg are noted along it.

A rather convergent southwest low-level jet of 30 to 40 kts is
focused in proximity to the front, and this should coupled with at
least weakly divergent flow aloft should maintain a regional
threat of heavy showers and thunderstorms going through the
overnight hours.

There will be additional storms capable of producing rainfall
rates of 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour based on the very moist
environment along the front, and locally slow cell-motions and
potential areas for some cell-training may allow for some spotty
additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches.

The 00Z HREF guidance is rather aggressive with some of the
rainfall potential over the next several hours, and may be locally
a bit overdone, but the environment near and south of the front
should remain conducive for additional areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms. Some additional concerns for flash flooding will be
possible as a result, and especially if any of these heavier rains
can impact the more sensitive urbanized areas.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6lOlPDgyrx9pzE1UpcAhx8mWQInGxSn7TWM-dz_qLhqe7tK90GVcukyoo4LsZiRbE2Ki= 87xwrDFSIwJpPcrZU4ZkOUc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...DMX...DVN...EAX...ICT...LSX...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41699247 41249134 40229211 38769477 37969683=20
37819855 38669881 40039606 41249448=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 240942
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-241500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0502
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
540 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Areas affected...Central/Northeast KS...Northwest MO...Southern IA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240940Z - 241500Z

SUMMARY...Additional rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms are
expected going through the mid-morning hours. Given the high
rainfall rates along with cell-training concerns and the
increasingly moist/wet antecedent conditions, the threat of flash
flooding will continue.

DISCUSSION...The early morning GOES-E IR satellite imagery along
with dual-pol radar shows a broken axis of heavy showers and
thunderstorms continuing to impact areas of central KS through
northwest MO and into southern IA. Some of the coldest convective
tops and heavier rainfall rates are along areas of the MO/IA
border where MRMS data is showing rates upwards of 1.5 inches/hour.

This activity is embedded within a moist and unstable airmass
early this morning characterized by PWs of 1.75 to 2 inches, and
with MUCAPE values of around 1000 J/kg. There continues to be a
frontal zone draped in a southwest to northeast fashion across the
area with multiple weak waves of low pressure riding northeast
along it. Some weak vort energy is also noted in satellite
imagery, with one vort over central KS and another one over
southwest IA which are both contributing to some modest ascent
over the region and thus facilitating convective sustenance.

The 00Z REFS data suggests the ongoing activity may persist for a
while this morning, with a setup that will locally favor
repeating/training areas of convection. These areas of heavy
showers and thunderstorms will be capable of yielding an
additional 2 to 4+ inches of rain, with the heaviest amounts over
northwest MO and southern IA.

Given the rainfall that has occurred overnight, the antecedent
conditions across the area are locally quite moist/wet, and thus
with the additional rains this morning, the threat for areas of
flash flooding will continue.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9KQ5T8zmZBIqtSI44KsE9wn-xT_Q6UG9i--l3QNJfCgX3Y1z4Vr3CPriu2SJutPwK_36= bQiCzPJBRzdT33ULLWALUKA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41649345 41569229 40769218 39219503 38299721=20
38539798 39109751 40059611 41119482=20

=3D =3D =3D
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