ACUS01 KWNS 100600
SWODY1
SPC AC 100559

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...FAR WEST TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening
across parts of far southeast New Mexico, far West Texas and the Rio
Grande Valley. Marginally severe storms will be possible from parts
of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley,
along parts of the Atlantic Coastal states, in northern
California/southern Oregon and in parts of the northern Rockies.

...Far Southeast New Mexico/Far West Texas/Rio Grande Valley...
A subtle mid-level shortwave trough will move southeastward across
New Mexico today. At the surface, a moist axis will be located
across the lower to middle Rio Grande Valley, where moderate
instability is expected to be in place by afternoon. As instability
becomes maximized, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop ahead
of the trough in the higher terrain of southeast New Mexico and far
West Texas. This convection will spread southeastward into the Rio
Grande Valley. RAP forecast soundings at 21Z to the east of the
Davis Mountains of west Texas have MLCAPE reaching 3500 J/kg. 0-6 km
shear is forecast to be in the 40 to 45 knot range, with 700-500 mb
lapse rates approaching 9 C/Km. This environment will be favorable
for supercells with large hail. The more intense cores could produce
hailstone greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, the storms
will be high-based with nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates in the
low-levels. This will contribute to a potential for isolated severe
wind gusts. The severe threat should gradually spread southeastward
across far West Texas in the late afternoon, moving into the lower
Rio Grande Valley during early evening.

...Southern Plains/Sabine River and Lower Mississippi Valleys...
Mid-level flow will become westerly today from parts of the southern
Plains into the central Gulf Coast states. At the surface, a moist
airmass will be in place across much of the region. Short-term model
forecasts suggest that a convective cluster or line could be ongoing
at the start of the period across the western Texas Hill Country. If
this occurs, then these storms could pose a marginal severe threat
as they move eastward from central Texas into southeast Texas late
this morning and early this afternoon. A few marginally severe
storms could also develop further east into the lower Mississippi
Valley, as surface temperatures and instability become maximized
during the late afternoon.

...Atlantic Coastal States...
A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys today. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place
ahead of the trough in the Atlantic Coastal states. As temperatures
warm, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
during the early afternoon from parts of the Carolinas northward to
the vicinity of New York City. The strongest instability will be
located in the Carolinas, where steep low-level lapse rates will
contribute to a potential for marginally severe wind gusts. Further
north into the Mid-Atlantic, the combination of instability and
deep-layer shear could also be sufficient for an isolated severe
threat. As convection moves eastward out of the higher terrain
during the early to mid afternoon, short multicell line segments
could produce marginally severe wind gusts.

...Northern California/Southern Oregon...
Mid-level flow will become increasingly southwesterly across parts
of the West Coast today. A pocket of instability is expected to
develop by afternoon from northern California into southern Oregon.
As surface temperatures warm within this pocket, isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will develop in the higher terrain. This
convection will move eastward into the lower elevations during the
late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings in northern California and
southern Oregon at 21Z have MLCAPE peaking in the 500 to 1000 J/kg
range, with surface temperature-dewpoint spreads exceeding 30
degrees F. This combined with steep mid-level lapse rates could be
sufficient for a marginally severe gusts and hail.

...Northern Rockies...
A mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the northern
Rockies today. In spite of limited large-scale ascent, isolated
thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain of the
northern Rockies by afternoon. Weak instability and large surface-temperature-dewpoint spreads could be enough for marginally
severe wind gusts as storms move into the lower elevations during
the afternoon. Hail will also be possible.

..Broyles/Squitieri.. 06/10/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 101219
SWODY1
SPC AC 101217

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0717 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NM AND SOUTHWEST TX...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening
across parts of far southeast New Mexico, far West Texas and the Rio
Grande Valley. Marginally severe storms will be possible from parts
of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley,
along parts of the Atlantic Coastal states, in northern
California/southern Oregon and in parts of the northern Rockies.

...Central/East TX This Morning...
Morning satellite/radar loops show a large linear MCS tracking
slowly eastward across west-central TX. This line of storms has
been primarily non-severe for the past few hours, but with gusty
winds along the leading edge. Overnight CAM solutions suggest the
MCS will continue to slowly weaken this morning, but a residual MCV
may continue to track eastward this afternoon into east TX and
central LA. Ample low level moisture and CAPE will support
re-development of a few strong storms. The current forecast
scenario is for this activity to be weakly organized this afternoon.
However, if re-intensification of this MCS can occur, a SLGT risk
area may be needed in east TX/central LA in later outlook updates.

...Southeast NM/Southwest TX This Afternoon/Evening...
The outflow boundary associated with the aforementioned MCS is
sagging southward across southwest TX. Southeasterly low-level
winds behind the outflow boundary, coupled with afternoon heating,
is expected to draw ample low-level moisture westward by late
afternoon. This will result in scattered intense thunderstorms over
the Davis mountains and vicinity. Storms will build southeastward
through the evening with a risk of very large hail and damaging wind
gusts.

...Coastal GA/SC...
Another remnant MCS is tracking across southern GA. A few hours of
daytime heating ahead of this activity could lead to intensification
by late morning, with a risk of strong wind gusts.

...Eastern FL Peninsula...
Full daytime heating and dewpoints in the 70s will yield strong
instability later this afternoon along the northeast and
east-central FL peninsula - leading to scattered thunderstorm
development. Weak but sufficient deep-layer shear and steep
low-level lapse rates could result in locally damaging wind gusts in
the strongest cells.

...NY/New England...
A surface cold front will sweep eastward across NY today.
Thunderstorms are expected to form along the front by mid-afternoon
over eastern Quebec and develop southward into central NY. A moist
and unstable air mass is expected to be in place over the
Hudson/Champlain Valleys, aiding a few strong storms capable of
gusty winds and hail.

..Hart/Bentley.. 06/10/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 101629
SWODY1
SPC AC 101628

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NM AND FAR WEST INTO CENTRAL TX...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening
across parts of far southeast New Mexico, far West Texas and the Rio
Grande Valley. Marginally severe storms will be possible from parts
of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley,
along parts of the Atlantic Coastal states, in northern
California/southern Oregon and in parts of the northern Rockies.

...Central/East/Southeast TX...
Recent satellite/radar imagery shows a decaying MCS across central
TX. The airmass downstream across east/southeast TX is very moist,
with dewpoints in the 70s, which will support strong buoyancy amid
continued daytime, with MLCAPE likely over 2500 J/kg. However,
vertical shear is weak and the general expectation is for the
strength of the MCS to remain modest, with only limited re
intensification anticipated. Any reintensification appears most
likely along the northern portion of the MCS, where interaction with
a warm-front-like boundary demarcating more tropical air is likely.
This may lead to some forward propagation and an increased potential
for a few locally stronger gusts.

...Southeast NM/Far West into Central TX This Afternoon/Evening... Easterly/southeasterly winds are expected to result in notable
low-level moisture advection into the region throughout the day.
This increased low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse
rates will support moderate to strong airmass destabilization amid
daytime heating this afternoon. Low-level convergence and orographic
ascent coupled with strengthening large-scale lift ahead of an
approaching shortwave trough will foster severe thunderstorm
development this afternoon across southeast NM and far west TX.
Large to very large hail (3"+ in diameter) is the primary risk with
the more cellular, early stage development. Upscale growth is then
expected, with the resulting convective line progressing
southeastward into the Edwards Plateau/central TX vicinity. The hail
threat will persist, but strong wind gusts will become the primary
risk once the linear mode dominates.

...Central Portions of the Southeast into Mid-Atlantic...
Recent surface analysis places a weak trough from northern MS
eastward through northern GA then northeastward across the Carolina
Piedmont to a low over the Chesapeake Bay vicinity. This boundary
will provide the impetus for scattered thunderstorm development as
it gradually shifts southeastward as a more cold-front-like feature
later this afternoon and evening. The downstream airmass will be
moderately to strongly buoyant, but shear will be weak, leading to a predominantly disorganized multicellular mode. A few strong
downbursts are possible as storms collapse and/or briefly surge as
bowing line segments.

...Eastern FL Peninsula...
Full daytime heating and dewpoints in the 70s will yield strong
instability later this afternoon along the northeast and
east-central FL peninsula, supporting scattered thunderstorm
development. Weak but sufficient deep-layer shear and steep
low-level lapse rates could result in locally damaging wind gusts in
the strongest cells.

...New England...
Recent surface analysis places a cold front from eastern Lake Erie southwestward through far western NY and PA, well to the west of the
warm conveyor showers and thunderstorms currently ongoing across
much of New England. Modest destabilization is anticipated ahead of
the cold front, with scattered thunderstorm development anticipated
along this boundary as it moves eastward this afternoon. Buoyancy
will be modest, but strong mid-level flow and resulting strong shear
should still support organized storm structures this
afternoon/evening. Some isolated hail and/or damaging gusts are
possible within the strongest updrafts.

...Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies...
Upper ridging will continue to dampen across the region while
mid-level southwesterly/westerly flow aloft gradually strengthens
ahead of an approaching low-amplitude shortwave trough. Orographic
effects coupled with increasing mid-level moisture and modest
large-scale ascent will support thunderstorms over the higher
terrain, with some of these storms tracking eastward/northeastward
into lower elevation areas. Greater lower elevation destabilization
is anticipated the southern/southeast OR vicinity and the lee of
northern Rockies in western/central MT. Damaging gusts are possible
later this afternoon/evening as high-based storms moved into these
regions. Some isolated hail may occur as well.

..Mosier/Thornton.. 06/10/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 101956
SWODY1
SPC AC 101955

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST NM AND FAR WEST INTO CENTRAL TX...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening
across parts of far southeast New Mexico, far West Texas and the Rio
Grande Valley. Marginally severe storms will be possible from parts
of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley,
along parts of the Atlantic Coastal states, in northern
California/southern Oregon and in parts of the northern Rockies.

...20z Update...
The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor
adjustments needed to account for recent convective trends. The
greatest severe threat remains focused across southwest Texas where
a few supercells continue to mature. Recent MRMS MESH estimates
suggest hail between 1.5 to 2.5 inches may be ongoing with a couple
of these cells, and the environment should remain supportive of
significant hail through early evening prior to upscale growth into
one or more propagating clusters. Additional attempts at initiation
are noted in satellite imagery along the upper Rio Grande Valley,
which should support increasing storm coverage and foster the
anticipated upscale growth. See the previous discussion below for
additional forecast details.

..Moore.. 06/10/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025/

...Central/East/Southeast TX...
Recent satellite/radar imagery shows a decaying MCS across central
TX. The airmass downstream across east/southeast TX is very moist,
with dewpoints in the 70s, which will support strong buoyancy amid
continued daytime, with MLCAPE likely over 2500 J/kg. However,
vertical shear is weak and the general expectation is for the
strength of the MCS to remain modest, with only limited re
intensification anticipated. Any reintensification appears most
likely along the northern portion of the MCS, where interaction with
a warm-front-like boundary demarcating more tropical air is likely.
This may lead to some forward propagation and an increased potential
for a few locally stronger gusts.

...Southeast NM/Far West into Central TX This Afternoon/Evening... Easterly/southeasterly winds are expected to result in notable
low-level moisture advection into the region throughout the day.
This increased low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse
rates will support moderate to strong airmass destabilization amid
daytime heating this afternoon. Low-level convergence and orographic
ascent coupled with strengthening large-scale lift ahead of an
approaching shortwave trough will foster severe thunderstorm
development this afternoon across southeast NM and far west TX.
Large to very large hail (3"+ in diameter) is the primary risk with
the more cellular, early stage development. Upscale growth is then
expected, with the resulting convective line progressing
southeastward into the Edwards Plateau/central TX vicinity. The hail
threat will persist, but strong wind gusts will become the primary
risk once the linear mode dominates.

...Central Portions of the Southeast into Mid-Atlantic...
Recent surface analysis places a weak trough from northern MS
eastward through northern GA then northeastward across the Carolina
Piedmont to a low over the Chesapeake Bay vicinity. This boundary
will provide the impetus for scattered thunderstorm development as
it gradually shifts southeastward as a more cold-front-like feature
later this afternoon and evening. The downstream airmass will be
moderately to strongly buoyant, but shear will be weak, leading to a predominantly disorganized multicellular mode. A few strong
downbursts are possible as storms collapse and/or briefly surge as
bowing line segments.

...Eastern FL Peninsula...
Full daytime heating and dewpoints in the 70s will yield strong
instability later this afternoon along the northeast and
east-central FL peninsula, supporting scattered thunderstorm
development. Weak but sufficient deep-layer shear and steep
low-level lapse rates could result in locally damaging wind gusts in
the strongest cells.

...New England...
Recent surface analysis places a cold front from eastern Lake Erie southwestward through far western NY and PA, well to the west of the
warm conveyor showers and thunderstorms currently ongoing across
much of New England. Modest destabilization is anticipated ahead of
the cold front, with scattered thunderstorm development anticipated
along this boundary as it moves eastward this afternoon. Buoyancy
will be modest, but strong mid-level flow and resulting strong shear
should still support organized storm structures this
afternoon/evening. Some isolated hail and/or damaging gusts are
possible within the strongest updrafts.

...Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies...
Upper ridging will continue to dampen across the region while
mid-level southwesterly/westerly flow aloft gradually strengthens
ahead of an approaching low-amplitude shortwave trough. Orographic
effects coupled with increasing mid-level moisture and modest
large-scale ascent will support thunderstorms over the higher
terrain, with some of these storms tracking eastward/northeastward
into lower elevation areas. Greater lower elevation destabilization
is anticipated the southern/southeast OR vicinity and the lee of
northern Rockies in western/central MT. Damaging gusts are possible
later this afternoon/evening as high-based storms moved into these
regions. Some isolated hail may occur as well.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 110101
SWODY1
SPC AC 110059

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Valid 110100Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms associated with isolated large hail and damaging wind
gusts are expected this evening across parts of the Rio Grande
Valley. Marginally severe storms will be possible in parts of the
southern Plains, central Gulf Coast states, and northwestern U.S.

...Rio Grande Valley/Southern Plains...
A shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over New
Mexico. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass is present over much of
the southern Plains. The RAP suggests that moderate instability is
confined to the Texas Coastal Plain and lower Rio Grande Valley,
where surface dewpoints generally range from the upper 60s to mid
70s F. A severe convective cluster is located near the northwestern
edge of moderate instability in the vicinity of Del Rio. This area
of convection will continue to move southeastward across southwest
Texas this evening. The WSR-88D VWP at Del Rio has 0-6 km shear near
25 knots. In addition, the RAP suggests that 700-500 mb lapse rates
are between 7 and 7.5 C/km. This environment should be sufficient
for an isolated severe threat. Organized line segments could be
capable of isolated large hail and wind damage. The severe threat in
the Rio Grande Valley may persist into the mid to late evening.

Further to the east into parts of the southern Plains, convection
associated with warm advection may develop later this evening into
the tonight. This convection could pose a threat for hail and
marginally severe wind gusts.

...Central Gulf Coast...
A mid-level trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the
Tennessee Valley and central Gulf Coast states. At the surface, a
moist airmass is located from the lower Mississippi Valley eastward
to the Atlantic Seaboard. Within this airmass, the RAP has an axis
of moderate to strong instability analyzed from south-central
Mississippi into central Alabama and central Georgia. Surface
dewpoints near this axis are mostly in the lower 70s F. Although
deep-layer shear is relatively weak along and near this instability
axis, low-level lapse rates are steep. This could contribute to a
marginal wind-damage threat early this evening.

...Northwestern States...
A mid-level shortwave trough will approach the northern California
coast this evening. Ahead of the trough, a somewhat moist airmass is
present from northern California into southeastern Oregon, where
scattered thunderstorms have developed this afternoon. Within this
airmass, the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 250 to 500 J/kg range.
Deep-layer shear appears to be relatively weak, with 0-6 km shear
estimated to be between 20 and 30 knots. In spite of this, low to
mid-level lapse rates are very steep. This could support a marginal
wind-damage or hail threat for a couple more hours.

..Broyles.. 06/11/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 110601
SWODY1
SPC AC 110559

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUHT-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with severe gusts and hail will be possible
today across parts of the southern Plains and Sabine River Valley.
Marginally severe storms will also be possible in parts of the Upper
Midwest and northwestern states.

...Southern Plains/Sabine River Valley...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move eastward across the
southern Plains today. Ahead of the trough, flow will be
southwesterly across much of the eastern half of Texas. At the
surface, a moist airmass will remain in place from the eastern Texas
Hill Country eastward into the Sabine River Valley, where surface
dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 70s F. Early in the period, a
line of storms is expected to move eastward across this moist
airmass. The line will likely lay out an outflow boundary across
parts of the Texas Coastal Plain. To the south of this boundary,
moderate instability is expected to develop by afternoon.
Thunderstorm development will be most likely along and near the
boundary during the mid to late afternoon, with multiple clusters of
storms moving eastward across central and southeast Texas. RAP
forecast soundings across the Texas Coastal Plain at 21Z have a
MLCAPE peaking near 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear around 30 knots.
The environment should support a severe threat, associated with
supercells and/or short bowing line segments. Wind damage will be
the primary threat, although hail will also be possible.

...Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains...
A shortwave trough will move across the northern Rockies today. At
the surface, a moist airmass will be in place from the northern
Rockies eastward into the northern High Plains. Destabilization will
occur during the day across this airmass as surface temperatures
warm. Models forecasts suggest that MLCAPE could reach 1000 J/kg in
some areas. By early to mid afternoon, convection is expected to
develop in the higher terrain, with storms moving eastward into the
lower elevations. Forecast soundings across the region suggest that
low to mid-level lapse rates will become very steep, and that
moderate deep-layer shear will be present. For this reason, a threat
for hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible, especially near
and after peak heating.

...Upper Midwest...
West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today from the
northern Plains eastward into the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a
cold front will move slowly southward across the mid Missouri and
upper Mississippi Valleys. This front will be a focus for convective development today. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in
the 60s F will likely contribute to moderate instability by
afternoon. Although deep-layer shear will be relatively weak,
low-level lapse rates are forecast to become very steep, locally
exceeding 9 C/km in some areas. Thunderstorms that develop on the
warm side of the boundary where lapse rates are maximized could
develop a threat for isolated damaging wind gusts and hail.

..Broyles/Squitieri.. 06/11/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 111217
SWODY1
SPC AC 111216

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0716 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with severe gusts and hail will be possible
today across parts of Texas. Marginally severe storms will also be
possible in parts of the Upper Midwest and northwestern states.

...Southeast TX...
Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are affecting areas from
north-central to deep south TX this morning. These storms are
drifting slowly eastward and will likely weaken through
late-morning. By mid-afternoon, redevelopment of strong
thunderstorms is expected along residual outflow boundaries and a quasi-stationary front that extends from east TX into LA. The
scenario for organized severe thunderstorms in this region is
nebulous, but forecast soundings show pockets of favorable
environment for hail and gusty winds.

...MN/IA...
A compact convectively-enhanced shortwave trough is present this
morning over SD. This feature will track eastward today, with most
CAM solutions suggesting a small cluster of thunderstorms moving
from southeast SD eastward along the MN/IA border. Sufficient
afternoon CAPE and steep low-level lapse rates will probably be
sufficient for a few strong wind gusts and perhaps some hail with
these storms. Some consideration was given to a small SLGT risk in
this zone, but will defer to later outlook updates.

...Northern Great Basin/Rockies...
A well-defined shortwave trough is moving across OR/NV. Increasing
large-scale lift and mid-level moisture will aid in the development
of scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms from ID eastward across
much of MT/WY/northern UT. The strongest storms will pose a risk of
locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps hail.

..Hart/Bentley.. 06/11/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 111641
SWODY1
SPC AC 111640

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Valid 111630Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with severe wind gusts and hail are
possible today across parts of Texas and the Upper Midwest.
Marginally severe storms will also be possible in parts of the
northern Intermountain region/northern High Plains and the Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas.

...Central/East Texas...
A complex/muddled mesoscale scenario exists regionally owing to a
decayed but lingering MCS across east/southeast Texas and multiple
lingering convectively enhanced MCVs in proximity to a
weak/slow-moving upper trough. Some supercell potential exists today
across East Texas and vicinity, with redevelopment expected later
today into tonight back west/southwest into central/south-central
Texas. Where air mass recovery/destabilization occurs, lingering
convectively enhanced flow field could support some supercells and well-organized clusters capable of damaging winds, hail, and
possibly a tornado risk, pending a sustenance of moderately strong
winds in the lowest 2-3km AGL and possible outflow/
boundary-interaction factors.

...Upper Midwest including northern IA/southern MN/southern WI...
Have introduced a near-frontal-zone focused categorical Slight Risk
for an anticipated severe hail/wind risk expected later this
afternoon through early/mid-evening. This will be ahead of a convectively-enhanced shortwave trough, with moderately strong
westerlies atop the west/east-oriented frontal zone. While low-level
moisture will not be robust by late-spring standards, steep lapse
rates and moderately strong buoyancy will support potentially severe
storms.

...Northern Great Basin/Rockies...
A readily evident shortwave trough in late-morning water vapor
imagery over southeast Oregon/northern Nevada and southwest Idaho
will continue east-northeastward today, reaching the northern High
Plains late tonight. Increasing forcing for ascent and mid-level
moisture will aid in the development of scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms, particularly from Idaho eastward across much of
Montana/Wyoming and northern Utah. The strongest storms will pose a
risk of severe-caliber wind gusts and some hail.

...Eastern Carolinas/southeast Virginia...
A moist/moderately unstable environment and modest-strength vertical
shear will support some potential for locally damaging winds and
hail until around sunset. See Mesoscale Discussion 1249 for
additional short-term details.

..Guyer/Thornton.. 06/11/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 111959
SWODY1
SPC AC 111957

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Valid 112000Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with severe wind gusts and hail are
possible today across parts of Texas and the Upper Midwest.
Marginally severe storms will also be possible in parts of the
northern Intermountain region/northern High Plains and the Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas.

...20z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments
needed to account for recent convective trends. Latest surface
observations/RAP mesoanalysis shows fairly stable conditions across
the TX Coastal Plain in the wake of the MCS currently approaching
the Sabine River. However, lingering low-level moisture coupled with
increasing ascent/cooler temperatures aloft associated with the
approaching mid-level trough should promote thunderstorm development
across the TX Slight risk area late tonight into early Thursday
morning. Latest forecast guidance and soundings continue to hint at
the potential for strong/severe storms, so opted to maintain current
risk categories despite the limited severe threat in the short-term.

..Moore.. 06/11/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025/

...Central/East Texas...
A complex/muddled mesoscale scenario exists regionally owing to a
decayed but lingering MCS across east/southeast Texas and multiple
lingering convectively enhanced MCVs in proximity to a
weak/slow-moving upper trough. Some supercell potential exists today
across East Texas and vicinity, with redevelopment expected later
today into tonight back west/southwest into central/south-central
Texas. Where air mass recovery/destabilization occurs, lingering
convectively enhanced flow field could support some supercells and well-organized clusters capable of damaging winds, hail, and
possibly a tornado risk, pending a sustenance of moderately strong
winds in the lowest 2-3km AGL and possible outflow/
boundary-interaction factors.

...Upper Midwest including northern IA/southern MN/southern WI...
Have introduced a near-frontal-zone focused categorical Slight Risk
for an anticipated severe hail/wind risk expected later this
afternoon through early/mid-evening. This will be ahead of a convectively-enhanced shortwave trough, with moderately strong
westerlies atop the west/east-oriented frontal zone. While low-level
moisture will not be robust by late-spring standards, steep lapse
rates and moderately strong buoyancy will support potentially severe
storms.

...Northern Great Basin/Rockies...
A readily evident shortwave trough in late-morning water vapor
imagery over southeast Oregon/northern Nevada and southwest Idaho
will continue east-northeastward today, reaching the northern High
Plains late tonight. Increasing forcing for ascent and mid-level
moisture will aid in the development of scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms, particularly from Idaho eastward across much of
Montana/Wyoming and northern Utah. The strongest storms will pose a
risk of severe-caliber wind gusts and some hail.

...Eastern Carolinas/southeast Virginia...
A moist/moderately unstable environment and modest-strength vertical
shear will support some potential for locally damaging winds and
hail until around sunset. See Mesoscale Discussion 1249 for
additional short-term details.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 120101
SWODY1
SPC AC 120100

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN IOWA INTO ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN
WISCONSIN AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm activity may still increase across parts of central
Texas, toward the upper Texas coastal plain, tonight accompanied by
at least some risk for severe weather. Otherwise, ongoing
thunderstorm development elsewhere is expected to generally wane by
mid to late evening.

...01Z Update...

...Midwest...
Convection with small cluster which has evolved along a stalled
frontal zone across northeastern Iowa remains strong. However, it
appears that forcing associated with a supporting mid-level
perturbation is beginning to shift east of the Upper Midwest into
Great Lakes, where the environment along the frontal zone becomes
less unstable and will trend more stable with the loss of daytime
heating. As this occurs, storms are expected to generally diminish
in intensity this evening across northeastern Iowa through southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois.

...Northern Intermountain Region and Rockies...
Downstream of a weak mid-level trough progressing eastward into the
northern Rockies, stronger convection is now spreading in a swath
across south central Montana and northern Wyoming. Instability is
weak due to limited low-level moisture, but steep
lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, including a modestly heated and
deeply mixed boundary layer, are contributing to the generation of
strong to severe gusts with the most vigorous storms. This should
begin to wane as low-level lapse rates stabilize with the onset of boundary-layer cooling.

...Texas...
Within slow moving, weak mid-level troughing, a digging
smaller-scale perturbation is supporting increasing thunderstorm
development near/west of the I-35 corridor of central Texas. In
the presence of 10-20 kt westerly to southwesterly deep-layer mean
flow, it appears that instability and large-scale forcing for ascent
will be sufficient to support a further increase in convection
through 04-06Z, which probably will tend to slowly advect across and
east of the I-35 corridor.

It appears that low-level warm advection/convergence focused along a
remnant frontal zone near/north of the San Antonio/Austin area could
support an upscale growing cluster, perhaps aided by inflow of
seasonably moist air becoming characterized by CAPE in excess of
2000 J/kg. This may be accompanied by at least some increase in
potential for strong to severe gusts associated with a developing
cold pool while spreading toward the upper Texas coast overnight.
However, given the initial weakness of the ambient mean flow/shear
and lack of steeper lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, the severe
threat appears conditioned on strong convective augmentation of the
wind fields, which seems relatively low in probability.

..Kerr.. 06/12/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 120552
SWODY1
SPC AC 120550

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS...THE UPPER
MIDWEST...SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered areas of strong thunderstorm development are possible
today into tonight, accompanied by potential for severe hail and
wind across parts of the Great Plains, the Upper Midwest, the Texas
coastal plains into lower Mississippi Valley and a small portion of
the northern Mid Atlantic.

...Discussion...
Split westerlies across the mid- and higher latitudes of the eastern
Pacific into North America include broad, weak troughing across the northeastern Pacific into British Columbia and the Pacific
Northwest. Models suggest that this cyclonic flow may undergo some amplification later today through tonight, as an embedded short wave perturbation pivots into the Pacific Northwest, to the south of a
slow moving low near/offshore of the northern British Columbia
coast.

Downstream, short wave ridging is forecast to shift across the
Canadian Prairies and east of the northern U.S. Rockies. However,
it appears a residual belt of (relatively) stronger flow will linger
above a stalled frontal zone across parts of the middle Missouri
Valley, into a confluent regime across the northern Mid Atlantic, to
the south of large-scale mid/upper troughing across the eastern
Canadian provinces.

It appears that seasonably high moisture content will largely remain
confined to the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, where
ridging will remain suppressed, but westerlies will remain modest to
weak. One larger-scale trough within this regime is forecast to
slowly shift east of the southern Great Plains and northwest Gulf
coast, toward the Mississippi Valley today through tonight.

...Northern Rockies into Upper Midwest...
Despite seasonably modest boundary-layer moisture, models indicate
that lower/mid-tropospheric lapse will become sufficiently steep to
support at least pockets of mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg, along/south of the stalled frontal zone across the Big Horns and
Black Hills vicinity into the Upper Midwest, and within lee surface
troughing across/northeast of the Cheyenne Ridge. Aided by forcing
for ascent and shear associated with a couple of smaller scale
mid-level perturbations/speed maxima (40-50+ kt at 500 mb)
progressing through the belt of westerly flow, the environment may
become conducive to organized convective development this afternoon
and evening. This may include widely scattered supercells and small
upscale growing clusters posing a risk for severe hail and wind.

...Northern Mid Atlantic...
The development of mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg
also appears possible with daytime heating of a moistening
boundary-layer, along the southern slopes of the higher terrain of
north central through northeastern Pennsylvania by late this
afternoon. Although forcing for ascent to support thunderstorm
initiation remains unclear, deep-layer shear beneath the southern
fringe of seasonably strong westerlies will likely be conditionally
supportive of organized convection capable of producing severe hail
and wind, before the instability wanes late this evening.

...Southern Rockies into adjacent Great Plains...
Downstream of the large-scale mid/upper troughing developing inland
of the Pacific coast, models indicate a generally weak but difluent
downstream flow will prevail across the southern Rockies. There is
a notable signal within the model output that forcing for ascent
will become supportive of widespread thunderstorm development along
the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains by mid to late
afternoon. Although propagation off the higher terrain will
probably be initially slow, due to modest downstream
destabilization, model forecast soundings indicate that a warm and
deeply mixed boundary layer will become supportive of a few strong
downbursts to the lee of the higher terrain. Consolidating and
strengthening outflow may support strengthening surface cold pools
with a continuing risk of strong to severe gusts into portions of
the adjacent high plains through this evening.

...Texas Coastal Plains into lower Mississippi Valley...
An increase in thunderstorm development gradually continues across
and east of the I-35 corridor of central Texas, aided by forcing for
ascent associated with a short wave impulse progressing through the
weak larger-scale mid-level trough. It appears that this will
continue into the Texas coastal plain, where inflow of seasonably
high moisture content characterized by sizable CAPE may support
considerable gradual further intensification through 12Z.

To differing degrees, the various model output suggests that this
may be accompanied by a developing lower/mid-tropospheric cyclonic
circulation, and associated augmentation of the wind fields, that
will tend to advect north-northeastward toward the Ozark Plateau/Mid
South today. Preceded by a developing corridor of moderately large
CAPE with daytime heating, it is possible that the environment could
become conducive to organizing convection with potential to produce
strong to severe surface gusts, and perhaps potential for a couple
of brief tornadoes.

..Kerr/Squitieri.. 06/12/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 121242
SWODY1
SPC AC 121241

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered areas of strong thunderstorm development are possible
today into tonight, accompanied by potential for severe hail and
wind across parts of the Great Plains, the Upper Midwest, the Texas
coastal plains into lower Mississippi Valley and a small portion of
the northern Mid Atlantic.

...NE/SD...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over eastern
MT, with a mid-level speed max tracking across WY. Large-scale lift
associated with the jet max will overspread parts of NE/SD by late
afternoon along a stalled surface boundary. At least widely
scattered thunderstorm activity is expected for a few hours (mainly
21-03z), with forecast soundings suggesting sufficient deep-layer
shear for a few organized/rotating cells. Locally damaging winds
and hail are possible. Overnight CAM guidance has shown consistency
on the corridor most likely to see storms, so have added a narrow
SLGT to cover this threat.

...East TX/LA/AR...
An upper trough is located over central TX, where widespread
thunderstorms are ongoing this morning. A few of these storms have
shown supercell tendencies overnight. Model guidance and local VAD
data suggest a region of enhanced low/mid level flow to the east of
the upper trough, extending from central into northeast TX. As the
trough moves northeastward today, the combination of a very moist
and modestly unstable air mass, sufficient low/deep layer shear, and considerable coverage of thunderstorms, will contribute to a risk of
a few locally damaging wind gusts and/or tornadoes. Will maintain
MRGL risk for today due to widespread clouds and limited opportunity
for heating.

...GA/SC/NC...
Strong heating is expected today across parts of GA/SC/NC, where
temperatures in the upper 80s and dewpoints near 70F are forecast.
This will lead to widespread moderate CAPE values and the
development scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear is
weak, but a few weakly organized thunderstorm clusters may reach
severe intensity with gusty/damaging winds.

..Hart/Bentley.. 06/12/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 121652
SWODY1
SPC AC 121651

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Valid 121630Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered areas of severe thunderstorm development are possible
today into tonight, accompanied by potential for severe hail and
wind across parts of the Great Plains, the Upper Midwest, the Texas
coastal plain into the Lower Mississippi Valley, as well as a
portion of the northern Mid-Atlantic.

...North-central Plains including Nebraska/South Dakota...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough and associated speed max will
progress eastward over the northern High Plains, from southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming toward the Dakotas. Related forcing for
ascent and a moderate belt of mid-level westerlies will overlie a
wavy frontal zone across southern South Dakota and western Nebraska.
At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected into mid/late
afternoon, with moderate buoyancy and 35-45 kt effective shear
(especially northern Nebraska northward) supportive of supercells.
Large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts are the primary hazards.

...South/East Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South...
An extensive MCS and prominent outflow remain primary forecast
factors today, with outflow now having progressed off the
middle/upper Texas coast. An enhanced low/mid-level wind field on
the eastern periphery of the convectively augmented upper low will
continue to contribute to some supercell/tornado risk within a moist environment, although cloud cover and thermodynamic limitations may
persist. Damaging winds may also occur on a sporadic/relatively
limited basis regionally.

...Southeast/southern Appalachians...
Strong heating is expected today across parts of Georgia into the
Carolinas, where temperatures in the upper 80s F and dewpoints near
70F are forecast. This will lead to widespread moderate CAPE values
and the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical
shear is weak, but a few weakly organized thunderstorm clusters may
reach severe intensity with gusty/damaging winds.

...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...
With full insolation, moderate destabilization will steadily develop
this afternoon near/south of a southward-moving front. While
ingredients are severe-storm supportive, the extent of deep
convective development may be limited by modest overall
forcing/low-level convergence, but at least isolated damaging
winds/hail will be possible where storms do develop. Favorable
deep-layer shear (40+ kt effective) is conditionally supportive of well-organized storms including supercells. In a relative sense,
severe storm development currently appears most probable across
eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and potentially toward
the Great NYC Metro vicinity/far southeast New York.

..Guyer/Thornton.. 06/12/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 121953
SWODY1
SPC AC 121952

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Valid 122000Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered areas of severe thunderstorm development are possible
today into tonight, accompanied by potential for severe hail and
wind across parts of the Great Plains, the Upper Midwest, the Texas
coastal plain into the Lower Mississippi Valley, as well as a
portion of the northern Mid-Atlantic.

...20z Update...
The primary change for this update is to remove risk probabilities
across parts of eastern TX and western LA in the wake of a gradually strengthening convective band/MCS where conditions have stabilized.
Low-end risk probabilities have been expanded slightly across south
TX to account for the southeastward propagation of a convective
cluster developing on the outflow of the prior MCS. Recent RAP
mesoanalysis estimates/forecast soundings suggest the downstream
convective environment may be supportive of organized convection
through early evening.

Elsewhere, the forecast largely remains on track with few
adjustments required. Convection developing within the upslope flow
regime across the central High Plains should increase in coverage
and intensity as ascent associated with a weak mid-level
perturbation (currently over northern UT) overspreads the region.
Across the Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, temperatures have warmed
into the mid-80s, which should minimize inhibition based on forecast
soundings; however, satellite imagery continues to show meager
vertical development of cumulus along the frontal zone, which limits
confidence in convective initiation and the overall severe threat.
See the previous discussion (below) and MCD #1260 for additional
details.

..Moore.. 06/12/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025/

...North-central Plains including Nebraska/South Dakota...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough and associated speed max will
progress eastward over the northern High Plains, from southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming toward the Dakotas. Related forcing for
ascent and a moderate belt of mid-level westerlies will overlie a
wavy frontal zone across southern South Dakota and western Nebraska.
At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected into mid/late
afternoon, with moderate buoyancy and 35-45 kt effective shear
(especially northern Nebraska northward) supportive of supercells.
Large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts are the primary hazards.

...South/East Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South...
An extensive MCS and prominent outflow remain primary forecast
factors today, with outflow now having progressed off the
middle/upper Texas coast. An enhanced low/mid-level wind field on
the eastern periphery of the convectively augmented upper low will
continue to contribute to some supercell/tornado risk within a moist environment, although cloud cover and thermodynamic limitations may
persist. Damaging winds may also occur on a sporadic/relatively
limited basis regionally.

...Southeast/southern Appalachians...
Strong heating is expected today across parts of Georgia into the
Carolinas, where temperatures in the upper 80s F and dewpoints near
70F are forecast. This will lead to widespread moderate CAPE values
and the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical
shear is weak, but a few weakly organized thunderstorm clusters may
reach severe intensity with gusty/damaging winds.

...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...
With full insolation, moderate destabilization will steadily develop
this afternoon near/south of a southward-moving front. While
ingredients are severe-storm supportive, the extent of deep
convective development may be limited by modest overall
forcing/low-level convergence, but at least isolated damaging
winds/hail will be possible where storms do develop. Favorable
deep-layer shear (40+ kt effective) is conditionally supportive of well-organized storms including supercells. In a relative sense,
severe storm development currently appears most probable across
eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and potentially toward
the Great NYC Metro vicinity/far southeast New York.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 130034
SWODY1
SPC AC 130033

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0733 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Valid 130100Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms, a few severe, will spread across portions
of the central and northern Plains this evening. Hail and wind are
the primary risks.

...01z Update...

Low-amplitude short-wave trough is ejecting across the northern High
Plains of eastern MT/northeast WY early this evening. Scattered
strong-severe thunderstorms have developed along the southern
influence of this feature, particularly from southeast WY into north
central NE, along a synoptic boundary draped across this region.
While LLJ is not forecast to be particularly strong overnight, some
increase is possible into this boundary over the next few hours and
this could encourage additional storms as well as support ongoing
activity. Latest radar data suggests large hail is occurring with
the strongest updrafts, perhaps as many as half a dozen storms along
the frontal zone. As heights are suppressed across the northern
Plains tonight, low-level warm advection will likely support at
least one or more MCS-type clusters to evolve and propagate toward
the upper MS Valley by daybreak.

..Darrow.. 06/13/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 130538
SWODY1
SPC AC 130537

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across much of Montana,
extending south across the central High Plains. The greatest
concentration of severe is expected across Montana where very large
hail, and severe winds are anticipated.

...Montana, south into the central High Plains...

500mb speed max (50+kt) is forecast to translate across southern OR
into the northern Rockies by late afternoon as a short-wave trough
advances inland. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow is
expected to be maintained across much of MT east of the higher
terrain, and moist boundary-layer conditions will be drawn deep into
the mountains prior to convective initiation. Early this morning,
lower-mid 50s surface dew points were observed as far west as Helena
and Polson. Latest model guidance suggests CINH will be negligible
by 18z across the higher terrain, and convection should readily
develop within an increasingly sheared and modestly buoyant
environment. NAM sounding for C18 at 18z exhibits 65kt 0-6km bulk
shear, with 8 C/km lapse rates, and 1300 J/kg SBCAPE. Hodographs
favor very large hail with these conditions and 2+ inch stones are
certainly possible with the more robust supercells. Scattered
supercells should develop by early afternoon then spread east and
mature as they advance toward central/southern MT. Some tornado
threat can be expected with these storms as ample low-level shear
should be present. With time multiple thunderstorm clusters could
emerge and severe winds may become more common as this activity
propagates toward southern MT.

Farther south across the High Plains of eastern WY into western KS,
more isolated activity is expected within a weaker flow regime. 00z
model guidance suggests a surface boundary will be draped across
this region, extending southeast into central OK. This boundary will
likely serve as the focus for diurnally enhanced convection.
Forecast soundings suggest strong SBCAPE will be noted across the
central High Plains into central OK where values should exceed
3000-4000 J/kg at lower latitudes. Somewhat stronger northwesterly
flow will extend across eastern OK into western AR and this may
result in some organizational potential along the backside of the MS
Valley trough. Have extended severe probs across OK into western AR
to account for this possibility.

..Darrow/Supinie.. 06/13/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 131241
SWODY1
SPC AC 131240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening across parts of Montana, extending southward across portions
of the central/southern High Plains. The greatest concentration of
severe thunderstorms should occur across central/eastern Montana,
where large to very large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a few
tornadoes are anticipated.

...Northern Rockies/High Plains...
A closed upper low will remain centered off the coast of British
Columbia today, as multiple low-amplitude mid-level shortwave
troughs advance eastward across the Pacific Northwest to the
northern Rockies. A seasonably moist low-level airmass is already in
place this morning across much of MT, with surface dewpoints
generally in the 50s. Daytime heating and modestly steepened
mid-level lapse rates will aid in the development of moderate
instability by this afternoon, mainly from central MT eastward.
35-50 kt of west-southwesterly mid-level flow associated with the
shortwave troughs should support similar values of deep-layer shear,
with RAP forecast soundings showing long/straight hodographs at
mid/upper levels. Large-scale ascent attendant to the shortwave
troughs will likely encourage robust convective development by early
afternoon (18-20Z), initially over the higher terrain of the
northern Rockies.

This activity is forecast to quickly become supercellular given
moderate to strong effective bulk shear. The favorable lapse rates
and hodographs at mid/upper levels should support a threat for
scattered large to isolated very large (2+ inch diameter) hail with
this initially cellular activity. By mid to late afternoon into
early evening, some clustering/upscale growth is anticipated across
eastern MT and vicinity as low-level southeasterly flow gradually
strengthens. A greater threat for severe/damaging winds, with
isolated gusts of 75+ mph, remains apparent across this area. The
tornado threat is less clear, as the boundary layer is forecast to
become rather well mixed this afternoon. Still, modestly increasing
low-level shear this evening may support some threat for a few
tornadoes.

...Central/Southern High Plains into Western Arkansas...
Elevated convection ongoing this morning across western OK in a
modest low-level warm advection regime may pose a limited severe
threat until it diminishes later this morning. Otherwise, at least
scattered thunderstorms should develop over the higher terrain of
the central Rockies and subsequently spread eastward into the
adjacent High Plains this afternoon and evening. Mid-level
west-southwesterly flow is generally expected to weaken with
southward extent across the central High Plains. But, sufficient
directional shear should still exist to support some updraft
organization, including the potential for a few supercells across
eastern WY/CO into western SD/NE/KS. Isolated large hail will be a
threat with any convection that can remain at least semi-discrete,
while severe winds may occur with one or more clusters that
eventually develop.

Convection is expected to become more isolated and less organized
with southward extent into the southern High Plains, but it may
still pose some hail/wind threat given sufficient instability and
steepened low/mid-level lapse rates. Somewhat stronger northwesterly
mid-level flow should also be in place across OK into western AR on
the back side of an upper trough over the lower/mid MS Valley. While
forcing will remain weak/nebulous across this region, a
conditionally favorable environment for severe thunderstorms will
exist.

...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast into the Ohio Valley...
A weak mid-level trough will advance slowly eastward from the Ozarks
to the lower MS and OH Valleys through the period. Around 25-35 kt
of southwesterly mid-level flow will be present over these regions
as filtered daytime heating of a rather moist low-level airmass
occurs today. Even though lapse rates aloft are forecast to remain
poor, sufficient instability and deep-layer shear should exist to
support an isolated threat for mainly damaging winds this afternoon
and early evening as low-level lapse rates steepen. A Marginal Risk
has been included with this update across parts of the lower MS Valley/Southeast into the OH Valley, where confidence in loosely
organized clusters occurring is greatest.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 06/13/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 131628
SWODY1
SPC AC 131626

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Valid 131630Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening across parts of Montana, extending southward across portions
of the central/southern High Plains. The greatest concentration of
severe thunderstorms should occur across central/southern Montana,
where large to very large hail, severe winds, and a couple tornadoes
will be possible.

...Central/southern MT this afternoon/evening...
Embedded speed maxima will progress east-northeastward over the
northern Rockies, with associated bands of ascent denoted by weak
convection now over ID. Surface heating along and southwest of a
baroclinic zone oriented from north central into southeast MT, and
arrival of the bands of ascent from ID will contribute to
thunderstorm development by early afternoon over the higher terrain
of southwest MT. Storms will then spread eastward through the afternoon/evening, in an environment supportive of supercells on the
northeast edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates, in a corridor
with long hodographs/effective bulk shear in excess of 50 kt. The
strong deep-layer shear and moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500
J/kg) will favor large hail production, some greater than 2 inch
diameter with the supercells, as well as damaging outflow gusts that
could reach or exceed 75 mph. A couple of tornadoes will also be
possible, though relatively deep mixing and relatively straight
hodographs cast some doubt on the tornado threat.

...High Plains this afternoon into early tonight...
Despite being near the crest of the midlevel ridge, sufficiently
moist, low-level upslope flow and steep midlevel lapse rates will
support thunderstorm development near and east of the lee trough
from eastern WY to eastern CO/western KS and the northern TX
Panhandle later this afternoon/evening. Deep mixing, steep lapse
rates, and relatively weak vertical shear all support initial storms
growing upscale into clusters through outflow interactions, and the
clusters will spread southeastward into tonight. Isolated large
hail will be possible with the stronger embedded storms, while
severe outflow gusts will become the main concern with storm
clusters this evening into early tonight.

...MS/AL to KY this afternoon...
East of a weak midlevel trough from east TX to MO, modest
enhancement of midlevel flow (to roughly 30-35 kt) and daytime
heating of a moist air mass will contribute to scattered
thunderstorm development through the afternoon from southeast LA/MS
across northwest AL, TN and KY. MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg and the aforementioned enhancement to midlevel flow will support storm
clusters/line segments with some potential for isolated wind damage
this afternoon.

...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon...
Strong surface heating is underway to the south of a slow-moving
front from DE into northern MD, which will steepen low-level lapse
rates and boost MLCAPE to 1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development is possible along the front and the Blue
Ridge, and storms will spread eastward through late
afternoon/evening. The moderate buoyancy, steep low-level lapse
rates and modest deep-layer vertical shear (effective bulk shear of
25-30 kt) will support some storm/cluster organization and the
potential for isolated wind damage.

..Thompson/Barnes.. 06/13/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 131959
SWODY1
SPC AC 131957

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Valid 132000Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening across parts of Montana, extending southward across portions
of the central/southern High Plains. The greatest concentration of
severe thunderstorms should occur across central/southern Montana,
where large to very large hail, severe winds, and a couple tornadoes
will be possible.

...20z Update...
The forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments
required for this update.

...Lower MS River Valley...
Wind probabilities have been trimmed behind a broken line of
convection spreading eastward into far eastern MS. Behind this line,
an expansive cold pool/convective overturning has sufficiently
reduced buoyancy to limit the potential for additional severe
convection. Ahead of the cold pool to the northeast, the convective
environment remains supportive of at least an isolated wind threat
(see MCD #1272 for additional details).

...Southern High Plains...
Wind probabilities have been expanded westward closer to the higher
terrain across NM. Early attempts at sustained convection are
ongoing from south-central CO into southern NM per latest visible
imagery. Although moisture quality immediately off the terrain
remains very limited (dewpoints in the upper 40s/low 50s), deep
boundary-layer mixing denoted by 40-50 F dewpoint depressions may
promote downdraft accelerations with an attendant severe wind risk.
The past several HRRR/RRFS solutions have consistently shown a
signal for at least sporadic severe gusts with this early
convection. Severe gusts should become more probable with eastward
extent later this evening as convection migrates into the deeper
moisture along the NM/TX border.

...Central Oklahoma to western Arkansas...
Early-morning convection has largely eroded across OK and far
western AR; however, surface observations and visible imagery reveal
a residual outflow boundary/differential heating zone draped from
north-central OK to western AR. Some building cumulus is noted as
temperatures warm into the upper 80s within a very moist air mass.
The KSRX and KINX VWPs continue to sample 30-35 knot mid-level flow,
which may be sufficient for organized cells if convection can
develop along this boundary later this afternoon/evening.
Additionally, increasing isentropic ascent between 925-850 mb late
tonight may support additional thunderstorms across OK.

..Moore.. 06/13/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025/

...Central/southern MT this afternoon/evening...
Embedded speed maxima will progress east-northeastward over the
northern Rockies, with associated bands of ascent denoted by weak
convection now over ID. Surface heating along and southwest of a
baroclinic zone oriented from north central into southeast MT, and
arrival of the bands of ascent from ID will contribute to
thunderstorm development by early afternoon over the higher terrain
of southwest MT. Storms will then spread eastward through the afternoon/evening, in an environment supportive of supercells on the
northeast edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates, in a corridor
with long hodographs/effective bulk shear in excess of 50 kt. The
strong deep-layer shear and moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500
J/kg) will favor large hail production, some greater than 2 inch
diameter with the supercells, as well as damaging outflow gusts that
could reach or exceed 75 mph. A couple of tornadoes will also be
possible, though relatively deep mixing and relatively straight
hodographs cast some doubt on the tornado threat.

...High Plains this afternoon into early tonight...
Despite being near the crest of the midlevel ridge, sufficiently
moist, low-level upslope flow and steep midlevel lapse rates will
support thunderstorm development near and east of the lee trough
from eastern WY to eastern CO/western KS and the northern TX
Panhandle later this afternoon/evening. Deep mixing, steep lapse
rates, and relatively weak vertical shear all support initial storms
growing upscale into clusters through outflow interactions, and the
clusters will spread southeastward into tonight. Isolated large
hail will be possible with the stronger embedded storms, while
severe outflow gusts will become the main concern with storm
clusters this evening into early tonight.

...MS/AL to KY this afternoon...
East of a weak midlevel trough from east TX to MO, modest
enhancement of midlevel flow (to roughly 30-35 kt) and daytime
heating of a moist air mass will contribute to scattered
thunderstorm development through the afternoon from southeast LA/MS
across northwest AL, TN and KY. MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg and the aforementioned enhancement to midlevel flow will support storm
clusters/line segments with some potential for isolated wind damage
this afternoon.

...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon...
Strong surface heating is underway to the south of a slow-moving
front from DE into northern MD, which will steepen low-level lapse
rates and boost MLCAPE to 1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development is possible along the front and the Blue
Ridge, and storms will spread eastward through late
afternoon/evening. The moderate buoyancy, steep low-level lapse
rates and modest deep-layer vertical shear (effective bulk shear of
25-30 kt) will support some storm/cluster organization and the
potential for isolated wind damage.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 140047
SWODY1
SPC AC 140046

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
HIGH PLAINS FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA TO NORTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across much
of the High Plains from southeast Montana into northwest Texas. Hail
and wind remain the primary concern.

...01z Update...

Mid-level speed max is currently translating across the northern
Rockies and this feature should suppress the height field across western/northern MT as the evening progresses. Scattered
strong-severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of the short wave
and this activity will propagate across southeastern MT over the
next several hours. Farther south across eastern WY/CO, high-level
diffluent flow is contributing to scattered robust convection where
moist southeasterly low-level flow has persisted, and is currently
contributing to a corridor of moderate-strong instability. Some
increase in the LLJ across the central High Plains may enhance the
longevity of this convection, though deep-layer flow is somewhat
lacking. More isolated strong/severe convection is also noted along
the NM/TX border. These storms will propagate southeast with an
attendant risk for some hail/wind.

..Darrow.. 06/14/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 140537
SWODY1
SPC AC 140536

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging wind
gusts will be possible across parts of the central and northern High
Plains this afternoon and evening.

...High Plains...

Large-scale pattern is not forecast to change appreciably through
the upcoming day1 period as broad ridging will hold across the
southern Rockies while stronger westerlies persist near the
international border. This flow regime will ensure diffluent, albeit
weak, high-level flow across the central/southern Plains. A synoptic
front should remain draped across the northern Plains and this will
ensure easterly low-level flow across much of eastern MT.

While weak height rises are expected across the northern Rockies,
30-40kt 500mb southwesterly flow will extend across ID into southern
MT. As a result, wind profiles will remain favorably strong and
supportive of organized, rotating updrafts. Strongest boundary-layer
heating is forecast across northwestern MT/northern ID, and across
the central High Plains. However, adequate heating and topographic
influences favor thunderstorm initiation along the western edge of
the moist boundary layer, most likely by late afternoon, across
central MT into eastern WY. This activity will propagate
east-southeast across the High Plains through the evening hours.
Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats.

Given the high-level diffluent flow aloft, and weaker steering
currents at lower latitudes, latest HREF guidance exhibits
substantial uncertainty in how/where potential convective clusters
could evolve. Ample buoyancy will exist for potentially severe
thunderstorms, but forecasting left over convective debris, and MCV
eddies, will likely prove too difficult to identify at this time to
warrant more than low severe probabilities south of I-70.

..Darrow/Supinie.. 06/14/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 141251
SWODY1
SPC AC 141250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and
damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the northern
and central High Plains this afternoon and evening. Isolated strong
to severe thunderstorms may also occur today across parts of the
southern Plains into the Ozarks, and over portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic.

...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
Compared to yesterday, mid-level heights are generally forecast to
remain neutral or even rise slightly today as upper ridging
gradually builds over the southern/central Rockies. Even so,
modestly enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow will persist over the
northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A seasonably moist
low-level airmass will remain over the northern/central High Plains
today, with steep mid-level lapse rates also present. Daytime
heating of this airmass should foster moderate to locally strong
MLCAPE by mid to late afternoon. High-based thunderstorms should
once again develop over the higher terrain of the northern/central
Rockies by late afternoon, before spreading eastward over the High
Plains this evening. Even though low-level winds are forecast to
remain generally modest, veering and gradual strengthening of the
flow with height through mid/upper levels should support around
35-50 kt of deep-layer shear (stronger across the northern High
Plains). Supercells that become established will have mainly a large
to very large (2+ inch diameter) hail threat, with any eventual
clusters posing more of a severe wind risk with eastward extent
through the evening.

A separate area of strong to isolated severe thunderstorms is also
apparent across parts of the Upper Midwest (IA vicinity) along/near
a surface boundary. While deep-layer shear will likely remain weak,
moderate instability may still support occasional hail and gusty
downdraft winds with any of the more robust cores that can develop
this afternoon and early evening.

...Southern Plains into the Ozarks...
Ongoing convective clusters and cells this morning across southern
KS and northern OK are being aided by weak southwesterly low-level
warm/moist advection. With generally weak deep-layer shear present,
the overall severe threat has remained generally isolated (reference
Mesoscale Discussion 1283 for additional details on the short-term
severe risk across south-central KS/northern OK). Still, steep lapse
rates aloft (per area 12Z soundings) are contributing to substantial
MUCAPE, which may support an isolated threat for hail and severe
wind gusts through the morning hours as these thunderstorms spread
generally east-southeastward along an instability gradient/surface
front. It remains unclear how far east the ongoing cluster in
southern KS may persist, with some guidance suggesting it may
restrengthen into parts of western/central AR this afternoon. Have
therefore expanded the Marginal Risk for severe/damaging winds
eastward across this area.

Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the potential for
additional convection to develop along/near the trailing outflow
from this morning activity across northern/central OK into
south-central KS and vicinity. It appears likely that moderate to
strong instability will be in place by late afternoon as diurnal
heating of a very moist low-level airmass occurs along and south of
the outflow boundary. But, large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear
will remain weak for much of the day, with modest low-level warm
advection forecast to gradually strengthen through the evening
hours. Any thunderstorms which can develop in this rather favorable thermodynamic environment could pose an isolated threat for severe
hail and damaging winds. But, confidence in a more focused corridor
of severe potential remains too low to include greater severe
hail/wind probabilities at this time. Isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms may also develop this afternoon/evening across parts
of the southern High Plains along/east of a surface lee
trough/dryline, although forcing aloft will remain nebulous beneath
upper ridging.

...Southern Mid-Atlantic...
A weak mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across the
Southeast and OH Valley today, eventually reaching the southern
Mid-Atlantic by late tonight. A stalled surface boundary is located
across parts of northern VA into MD and the Delmarva Peninsula this
morning. This boundary is expected to move little through the day,
and will likely serve as a focus for convection later this
afternoon.

Current expectations are for thunderstorms to initially develop
around 20-22Z over the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge, and
subsequently spread east-southeastward across the I-95 corridor in
VA/DC/MD through the early evening. Various NAM/RAP forecast
soundings suggest that even with poor lapse rates aloft, sufficient
instability and modest deep-layer shear should be present
along/south of the surface boundary to support some updraft
organization. Occasional severe/damaging winds up to 60 mph and
perhaps some marginally severe hail will be possible with the
stronger cores through the evening, until they eventually weaken
with the loss of daytime heating.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 06/14/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 141626
SWODY1
SPC AC 141625

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT FOR MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND FROM
SOUTHERN KANSAS AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and
damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the northern
and central High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large hail and
damaging winds will also be possible this afternoon from eastern
Oklahoma into western Arkansas, and late tonight from southern
Kansas into central/northeast Oklahoma.

...KS/OK/AR this afternoon through tonight...
Convection is ongoing this morning in several clusters from
southeast KS into central and eastern OK. The KS cluster had the
better defined cold pool and MCV this morning, but has weakened
while moving into the areas of rain-cooled air in the immediate wake
of the OK convection. The environment downstream into AR could
support some continuation of the eastern OK storms that have
intensified recently, with an attendant threat for occasional wind
damage and isolated large hail with multicell clusters.

The convectively-enhanced midlevel trough will remain over eastern
KS into tonight, when a southwesterly low-level jet is expected to
develop as the low levels recover in the wake of this morning's
storms. Related increases in low-level warm advection will support
new thunderstorm development tonight in roughly the same areas being
impacted by the weakening storms this morning, and an MCS could
evolve in this warm advection zone overnight. An environment with
steep midlevel lapse rates, large CAPE, and some enhancement to
low-midlevel vertical shear will favor the potential for large hail,
severe outflow gusts and a low chance for a couple of tornadoes.

...MT/central High Plains late this afternoon into late evening...
Subtle height rises are expected over the High Plains and MT, with
the stronger mid-upper flow confined mostly to MT. Forcing for
ascent will likewise be relatively weak, with some upslope flow
component along and east of a lee trough. At least widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected east/northeast of the higher
terrain from eastern WY into northeast CO, and potentially along the
baroclinic zone across central MT. A few supercells will be
possible with large hail from MT into eastern WY, though storms with
southward extent will have more of a threat for severe outflow gusts
based on a tendency to grow upscale on merging outflow in an
environment with steep lapse rates and deep-layer vertical shear
that will be close to the lower margins for sustained supercells.
There will be some potential for a cluster or two to persist
overnight while spreading eastward over the High Plains.

...Mid-Atlantic to the southern Appalachians this afternoon...
Along and south of a stalled front from southern DE into northern
MD/VA, surface heating is ongoing in cloud breaks. As surface
temperatures warm into the 80s with 72-74 F dewpoints, MLCAPE will
increase to near 2000 J/kg this afternoon. Modest enhancement to
vertical shear (effective bulk shear of 25-30 kt) with subtle
perturbations crossing the Appalachians could allow for some
clustering of storms with the potential for isolated wind damage.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected farther southwest into the
southern Appalachians and vicinity, immediately east of the slowly
weakening midlevel trough over KY/TN. Moderate buoyancy, DCAPE
approaching 1000 J/kg and roughly 30 kt midlevel flow could be
sufficient for isolated downbursts with associated wind damage.

..Thompson/Halbert.. 06/14/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 141955
SWODY1
SPC AC 141954

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Valid 142000Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONTANA INTO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and
damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the northern
and central High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large hail and
damaging winds will also be possible this afternoon from eastern
Oklahoma into western Arkansas, and late tonight from southern
Kansas into central/northeast Oklahoma.

...20z Update...
The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor
adjustments made to account for recent convective trends.

...Western Arkansas...
A loosely organized MCS continues to move across western AR, and
while GOES IR imagery continues to show deep/robust updraft
development, MRMS echo top imagery over the past couple of hours
reveals that these updrafts have been fairly transient, likely owing
to weak deep-layer wind shear. The MCS will likely continue to move east/southeast towards southwestern AR through peak heating and may
be capable of damaging winds, but given the recent trends, 15%
wind/Slight risk probabilities have been removed from western AR.

...Oklahoma...
An outflow boundary is noted in visible imagery and surface
observations from south-central OK to western OK. This boundary is
sufficiently displaced from the upper cirrus associated with the MCS
to the east to yield surface temperatures in the 80s on the cool
side of the boundary. Consequently, a corridor of southeasterly
low-level flow and MLCAPE upwards of 2500-3000 J/kg is in place
across southwest/western OK and could be a preferential corridor for
a supercell or two later this evening. Latest CAM guidance has
hinted at this possibility, but solutions continue to vary.
Additional convection along and north of this boundary remains
likely later tonight as the nocturnal jet strengthens and isentropic
ascent increases. Continued re-development of elevated convection
across north-central OK casts some uncertainty on where initiation
later tonight is most likely, and may result in more focused
convection along and west of the I-35 corridor. Here again, CAM
solutions have not captured recent convective trends well and show
some variance in the exact evolution. Regardless, 15% hail/wind
probabilities have been shifted westward to account for these
trends.

...Central to Northern High Plains...
The early stages of convective initiation are underway across
central to eastern WY with further development and intensification
expected through the evening. See MCD #1286 for additional details.

..Moore.. 06/14/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025/

...KS/OK/AR this afternoon through tonight...
Convection is ongoing this morning in several clusters from
southeast KS into central and eastern OK. The KS cluster had the
better defined cold pool and MCV this morning, but has weakened
while moving into the areas of rain-cooled air in the immediate wake
of the OK convection. The environment downstream into AR could
support some continuation of the eastern OK storms that have
intensified recently, with an attendant threat for occasional wind
damage and isolated large hail with multicell clusters.

The convectively-enhanced midlevel trough will remain over eastern
KS into tonight, when a southwesterly low-level jet is expected to
develop as the low levels recover in the wake of this morning's
storms. Related increases in low-level warm advection will support
new thunderstorm development tonight in roughly the same areas being
impacted by the weakening storms this morning, and an MCS could
evolve in this warm advection zone overnight. An environment with
steep midlevel lapse rates, large CAPE, and some enhancement to
low-midlevel vertical shear will favor the potential for large hail,
severe outflow gusts and a low chance for a couple of tornadoes.

...MT/central High Plains late this afternoon into late evening...
Subtle height rises are expected over the High Plains and MT, with
the stronger mid-upper flow confined mostly to MT. Forcing for
ascent will likewise be relatively weak, with some upslope flow
component along and east of a lee trough. At least widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected east/northeast of the higher
terrain from eastern WY into northeast CO, and potentially along the
baroclinic zone across central MT. A few supercells will be
possible with large hail from MT into eastern WY, though storms with
southward extent will have more of a threat for severe outflow gusts
based on a tendency to grow upscale on merging outflow in an
environment with steep lapse rates and deep-layer vertical shear
that will be close to the lower margins for sustained supercells.
There will be some potential for a cluster or two to persist
overnight while spreading eastward over the High Plains.

...Mid-Atlantic to the southern Appalachians this afternoon...
Along and south of a stalled front from southern DE into northern
MD/VA, surface heating is ongoing in cloud breaks. As surface
temperatures warm into the 80s with 72-74 F dewpoints, MLCAPE will
increase to near 2000 J/kg this afternoon. Modest enhancement to
vertical shear (effective bulk shear of 25-30 kt) with subtle
perturbations crossing the Appalachians could allow for some
clustering of storms with the potential for isolated wind damage.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected farther southwest into the
southern Appalachians and vicinity, immediately east of the slowly
weakening midlevel trough over KY/TN. Moderate buoyancy, DCAPE
approaching 1000 J/kg and roughly 30 kt midlevel flow could be
sufficient for isolated downbursts with associated wind damage.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 150053
SWODY1
SPC AC 150051

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONTANA TO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and
damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the northern
and central High Plains this evening. Large hail and damaging winds
will also be possible from south-central Kansas into portions of
Oklahoma.

...Southeast...

Severe probabilities have been removed from Alabama to the southern Mid-Atlantic. While thunderstorm activity may persist for several
more hours this evening/tonight, overall severe potential is
expected to remain low as the boundary-layer stabilizes with the
loss of daytime heating. For more information, reference MCD 1292.

...Southern Plains...

The Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been expanded westward into parts
of western OK this evening to account for developing convection
within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415. Additional storms are expected
to develop through the evening and into the overnight hours as a
low-level jet increases. Isolated large hail and scattered damaging
wind gusts will be possible with this activity.

Some consideration was given to expanding the Slight risk further
west into portions of the OK/TX Panhandle and perhaps far southwest
KS as well. Most CAMs suggest convection will either spread
southeast from a cluster in CO, or develop along the western edges
of the outflow as the low-level jet increases across the TX
Panhandle tonight. However, confidence in this scenario is low, and
given the time of day (after 06z) and strong boundary-layer
inhibition, will maintain the Marginal risk (level 1 of 2) further
west. However, if convection does develop across far southwest KS
into the Panhandles, locally strong/severe wind gusts will be
possible.

...MT into the Central High Plains...

No changes have been made. Damaging wind and large hail potential
will persist for several hours tonight. Reference Severe
Thunderstorm Watches 414 and 416.

..Leitman.. 06/15/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 150528
SWODY1
SPC AC 150527

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO PARTS OF THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail and
swaths of damaging gusts are possible across portions of Montana
into northeast Wyoming, and parts of the western Dakotas this
afternoon and evening. Additional strong to severe storms may occur
across the central/southern High Plains, and over parts of Virginia
and North Carolina.

...MT/WY into the Dakotas...

An upper ridge will be oriented over the Rockies/adjacent High
Plains vicinity today. However, a shortwave impulse is forecast to
eject through the top of the ridge during the late
afternoon/evening, providing some large-scale ascent and increasing
mid/upper westerly flow. In the low-levels, a surface
boundary/residual outflow from prior convection is forecast to be
oriented across south-central/southeast MT eastward along the ND/SD
border vicinity. East to southeasterly low-level flow will transport
mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints along this boundary and to the east
of a lee surface trough extending southward across eastern WY/CO.
Strong surface heating and steep midlevel lapse rates will support
moderate to strong destabilization (2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE).

One or more clusters of storms is forecast to develop over higher
terrain of central MT, southeastward into northeast WY. Supercell
wind profiles, with elongated/straight hodographs above 2-3 km
suggest initial cells over central into southeast MT will pose a
risk for large to very large hail (2+ inch diameter) in addition to
strong wind gusts. With time, clustering is expected and upscale
growth into an east/southeast progressing MCS/bow tracking along an
instability gradient/west-east surface boundary is forecast.
Damaging wind gusts, some potentially up to 80 mph, will be possible
once upscale development occurs. The east/southeast extent of
greater severe wind potential is a bit uncertain, however,
decreasing instability and increasing inhibition with eastward
extent should limit eastward progression into the eastern Dakotas
overnight.

...Central High Plains vicinity...

Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms are likely to develop
along the surface trough/dryline within a moist upslope flow regime
across portions of southeast WY into parts of eastern CO and perhaps
persist into western NE/KS. This activity will pose a risk of strong
outflow winds given a deeply mixed boundary layer and very steep
low-level lapse rates. Isolated hail is also possible where any
updrafts can be maintained within the modestly sheared environment.

...Eastern NM into TX/OK/AR...

Convection will be ongoing across OK and western AR at the beginning
of the forecast period this morning. Gusty winds may accompany this
activity. Additional convection may develop or re-intensify as
outflow develops southward across portions of northwest/north TX as
stronger heating occurs by midday. Some potential exists that the
Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) may need to be expanded southward
across TX if a stronger forward propagating MCS can be maintained.
However, vertical shear is forecast to be weak and confidence in
robust, organized convection with southward extent is low.
Additional storms may develop across AR during the afternoon in the
vicinity of a potential eastward developing MCV. Isolated strong
gusts and may accompany this activity as well.

Additional isolated thunderstorms producing gusty winds and perhaps
hail may develop along the surface trough across eastern NM during
the late afternoon as well.

...VA/NC...

A mid/upper shortwave impulse will track east across the
central/southern Appalachians today. Meanwhile, a lee low is
forecast to track eastward near the NC/VA border through the
afternoon. A seasonally moist and unstable airmass will be in place
across the Piedmont into the coastal plain. Poor midlevel lapse
rates and weak vertical shear should limit overall severe potential,
but isolated wet microbursts or possibly marginal hail with stronger
updrafts pulses will be possible.

..Leitman/Supinie.. 06/15/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 151253
SWODY1
SPC AC 151252

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Valid 151300Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very
large hail and swaths of severe/damaging gusts (some 75+ mph) are
likely across portions of central/eastern Montana into northeast
Wyoming and the western Dakotas this afternoon through tonight.
Additional strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the
central/southern Plains, and over parts of Virginia and North
Carolina.

...Northern/Central Plains...
Ongoing thunderstorms across northeast MT may pose an isolated hail
threat this morning. Otherwise, upper ridging will continue to
prevail over the Southwest and southern Rockies today, with a subtle
mid-level shortwave trough forecast to advance northeastward across
the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains through the period.
This feature will likely aid in the development of initially
high-based convection over parts of the northern Rockies in MT by
early to mid afternoon. Meanwhile, diurnal heating of a fairly moist
low-level airmass (surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper
50s) and steep mid-level lapse rates will foster around 2000-3000
J/kg of MLCAPE through the afternoon across much of central/eastern
MT along and south of a convectively reinforced boundary. Modest
low-level east-southeasterly flow will veer to west-southwesterly
and strengthen with height through mid/upper levels. This will
support around 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear and organized
convection.

Intense thunderstorm development appears increasingly likely across
central MT by mid to late afternoon, as large-scale ascent
associated with the shortwave trough overspreads the surface warm
sector. Given the rather favorable thermodynamic/kinematic
environment expected, initial convection will likely be
supercellular and pose a threat for large to very large hail
potentially up to 2-3 inches in diameter. The Enhanced Risk has been
expanded westward some in central MT to account for this expected
supercell development, and a 30% area has been included for large
hail as well. With time this evening, one or more clusters will
likely evolve from the initially discrete activity across eastern MT
into parts of northeast WY and the western Dakotas. Steepened
low-level lapse rates should aid in efficient mixing of intense
downdraft winds to the surface, and swaths of severe/damaging winds
should occur as thunderstorms spread eastward through the evening
and into early Monday morning. Some of these winds may be
significant, with peak gusts potentially reaching up to 70-80 mph on
an isolated basis.

Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms should develop along
the surface trough/dryline within a moist low-level upslope flow
regime across portions of southeast WY into eastern CO, and perhaps
persisting into western NE/KS. This activity will pose a risk of
strong to severe outflow winds given a deeply mixed boundary layer
and the presence of very steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated hail
may also occur where any robust updrafts can be maintained within a
modestly sheared environment.

...Southern Plains...
Extensive, loosely organized convection is ongoing this morning
across much of western/southern OK and vicinity. This activity is
being aided by modest low-level warm moist advection associated with
a 20-30 kt southwesterly low-level jet. Current expectations are for
these thunderstorms to generally weaken through the rest of the
morning as the low-level jet gradually weakens. Even so, an isolated
threat for strong/gusty winds may persist with these clusters as
they spread generally south-southeastward. There may be some chance
for either this morning convection or related outflow to regenerate
new, robust convection this afternoon across parts of TX. Have
expanded the Marginal Risk for wind southward a bit to account for
this potential, but in general weak shear should limit convective
organization with southward extent. Otherwise, an isolated severe
threat may exist with convection that develops across AR this
afternoon in proximity to a remnant MCV, and along/east of the
surface lee trough/dryline across the southern High Plains.

...Virginia/North Carolina...
A low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across
the central/southern Appalachians today. A related weak surface low
should develop eastward near the NC/VA border through the afternoon.
A moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across much of
NC and southern VA as filtered daytime heating occurs. Poor lapse
rates aloft and modest deep-layer shear should limit the overall
severe potential across this region. Still, isolated wet microbursts
and/or marginally severe hail may occur with the stronger
updrafts/cores that can develop this afternoon and early evening.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 06/15/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 151630
SWODY1
SPC AC 151628

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Valid 151630Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO
ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very
large hail and swaths of severe/damaging gusts (some 75+ mph) are
likely across portions of central/eastern Montana into northeast
Wyoming and the western Dakotas this afternoon through tonight.
Additional strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the
central/southern Plains, and over parts of Virginia and North
Carolina.

...MT to SD/NE through tonight...
Moderate buoyancy is expected again this afternoon along and south
of a an outflow-reinforced baroclinic zone, in advance of a midlevel
shortwave trough (now over WA/OR) that will crest the ridge over MT
this evening. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected in the
zone of ascent along the baroclinic zone and in advance of the
midlevel trough, in concert with the diurnal heating cycle in cloud
breaks. MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and
long hodographs will favor supercells with very large hail (2-3
inches in diameter). Clustering of storms through the evening will
contribute to an increasing threat for severe outflow winds of 60-80
mph as convection spreads eastward toward the SD/ND/MT border region
through tonight.

Farther south into the High Plains, the scenario will be similar to
the previous two days, with a few storm clusters expected to form
east of the higher terrain and spread eastward through late evening.
Buoyancy/vertical shear will be sufficient for a couple of
supercells with some hail threat, though relatively deep mixing
supports upscale growth on outflow interactions, with an attendant
threat for severe outflow gusts.

...Southeast SD/northwest IA/southwest MN this afternoon/evening...
An MCV from overnight convection will continue to move
east-southeastward across southeast SD and northwest IA/southwest MN
through this evening. Morning convection across northwest IA has
weakened, but residual clouds linger. Some flow enhancement in the low-midlevels on the south side of the MCV, in combination with
diurnal destabilization in cloud breaks/steep midlevel lapse rates,
could support a cluster of storms with some hail/wind threat later
this afternoon/evening. Will re-evaluate this corridor this
afternoon, but will maintain MRGL risk given lingering clouds and
some uncertainty regarding the magnitude of destabilization.

...NW/central TX today...
Merged cold pools with overnight convection in OK continue to spread
southward across western north TX, with a history of occasional
measured gusts near 60 mph. Daytime heating/destabilization ahead
of the cold pool will result in sufficient destabilization for
storms to continue to develop southward with the cold pool.
However, vertical shear is weakening with time with the loss of the
nocturnal low-level jet, so convection organization is expected to
slowly diminish over time. Still, the thermodynamic environment and
the established cold pool (per surface observations and KDYX radar
data) will support the continued potential for occasional
strong-severe outflow gusts toward central TX/parts of the Edwards
Plateau through the afternoon.

...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening...
A front, reinforced by differential heating across southern VA,
appears to be mixing slowly northward and could serve as a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Weak enhancement to
low-level shear/hodograph curvature along the boundary could support
weakly rotating storms with the potential to produce a brief tornado
or two. Otherwise, the main concern will be isolated wind damage
with largely sub-severe winds where low-level lapse rates steepen
this afternoon along and south of the front.

..Thompson/Wendt.. 06/15/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 151953
SWODY1
SPC AC 151952

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Valid 152000Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO
ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very
large hail and swaths of severe/damaging gusts (some 75+ mph) are
likely across portions of central/eastern Montana into northeast
Wyoming and the western Dakotas this afternoon through tonight.
Additional strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the
central/southern Plains, and over parts of Virginia and North
Carolina.

...20z Update...
5% hail/wind risk probabilities were reduced across portions of
central TX in the wake of a decaying MCS. Surface observations over
the past 1-2 hours have largely been sampling 30-55 mph winds with
the convective band with further weakening expected as it becomes
increasingly displaced from stronger mid-level flow. However, a few strong/severe storms remain possible as the MCS collides with a northward-propagating sea breeze boundary across eastern TX this
afternoon and migrates into a very buoyant (3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE)
air mass in place across south-central TX.

A slight expansion of 2% tornado probabilities was made across
south-central SD where shallow cumulus is beginning to develop
within a diffuse warm frontal zone where temperatures are quickly
warming into the upper 80s and low 90s. A few recent CAM solutions
(most notably the RRFS) suggest a supercell or two may develop
within this weakly forced regime between 22-02 UTC. If this occurs,
the environment will support organized supercells with some tornado
risk (in addition to the potential for large hail/severe wind).
Given the recent observed trends, and the HRRR's tendency to
struggle to initiate convection in such weakly forced regimes, some
expansion of tornado risk probabilities appears warranted.

Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track as outlined in the previous
discussion (below). See MCD #1302 for additional short-term details
pertaining to the Enhanced risk across MT.

..Moore.. 06/15/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025/

...MT to SD/NE through tonight...
Moderate buoyancy is expected again this afternoon along and south
of a an outflow-reinforced baroclinic zone, in advance of a midlevel
shortwave trough (now over WA/OR) that will crest the ridge over MT
this evening. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected in the
zone of ascent along the baroclinic zone and in advance of the
midlevel trough, in concert with the diurnal heating cycle in cloud
breaks. MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and
long hodographs will favor supercells with very large hail (2-3
inches in diameter). Clustering of storms through the evening will
contribute to an increasing threat for severe outflow winds of 60-80
mph as convection spreads eastward toward the SD/ND/MT border region
through tonight.

Farther south into the High Plains, the scenario will be similar to
the previous two days, with a few storm clusters expected to form
east of the higher terrain and spread eastward through late evening.
Buoyancy/vertical shear will be sufficient for a couple of
supercells with some hail threat, though relatively deep mixing
supports upscale growth on outflow interactions, with an attendant
threat for severe outflow gusts.

...Southeast SD/northwest IA/southwest MN this afternoon/evening...
An MCV from overnight convection will continue to move
east-southeastward across southeast SD and northwest IA/southwest MN
through this evening. Morning convection across northwest IA has
weakened, but residual clouds linger. Some flow enhancement in the low-midlevels on the south side of the MCV, in combination with
diurnal destabilization in cloud breaks/steep midlevel lapse rates,
could support a cluster of storms with some hail/wind threat later
this afternoon/evening. Will re-evaluate this corridor this
afternoon, but will maintain MRGL risk given lingering clouds and
some uncertainty regarding the magnitude of destabilization.

...NW/central TX today...
Merged cold pools with overnight convection in OK continue to spread
southward across western north TX, with a history of occasional
measured gusts near 60 mph. Daytime heating/destabilization ahead
of the cold pool will result in sufficient destabilization for
storms to continue to develop southward with the cold pool.
However, vertical shear is weakening with time with the loss of the
nocturnal low-level jet, so convection organization is expected to
slowly diminish over time. Still, the thermodynamic environment and
the established cold pool (per surface observations and KDYX radar
data) will support the continued potential for occasional
strong-severe outflow gusts toward central TX/parts of the Edwards
Plateau through the afternoon.

...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening...
A front, reinforced by differential heating across southern VA,
appears to be mixing slowly northward and could serve as a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Weak enhancement to
low-level shear/hodograph curvature along the boundary could support
weakly rotating storms with the potential to produce a brief tornado
or two. Otherwise, the main concern will be isolated wind damage
with largely sub-severe winds where low-level lapse rates steepen
this afternoon along and south of the front.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 160059
SWODY1
SPC AC 160058

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WYOMING...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very
large hail and swaths of severe/damaging gusts (some 75+ mph) will
spread eastward from central/eastern Montana into northeast Wyoming
and the western Dakotas through tonight. Additional severe
thunderstorms will continue to pose a risk of large hail and severe
gusts across the central and southern Plains into tonight.

...MT to SD/NE through tonight...
A mix of organized clusters and supercells continue tracking
eastward across central/eastern MT this evening -- focused ahead of
a low-amplitude midlevel wave moving into the area. These storms
will continue to pose a risk of large hail and severe gusts, though
eventual upscale growth should support an increasing risk for a
swath of severe winds with eastward extent. For details, reference
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418.

Father south, several other organized storm clusters are evolving
eastward out of eastern WY and western NE, which will both pose a
risk of severe wind gusts. The Enhanced Risk was expanded southward
across western SD (driven by 30-percent wind probabilities), where
the northern upscale-growing cluster is moving into an environment characterized by steep deep-layer lapse rates, rich boundary-layer
moisture, and 35 kt of effective shear (per UNR 00Z sounding). This
will favor a swath of severe winds (some 75+ mph) into tonight. For
details, see Severe Thunderstorm Watches 420 and 421 and MCD 1306.

...Southern High Plains...
A cluster of severe thunderstorms continues tracking eastward across east-central NM, posing a risk of large hail and severe wind gusts.
See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 419 and MCD 1307 for details.

..Weinman.. 06/16/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 160601
SWODY1
SPC AC 160559

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe gusts,
large hail, and perhaps a couple tornadoes are forecast today from
the north-central High Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
Within a belt of zonal midlevel flow extending from the northern
Rockies/High Plains into the Upper MS Valley, a convectively
augmented midlevel impulse/MCV will track eastward across the
Dakotas into MN through the afternoon. In response to this feature,
a weak frontal-wave low will migrate eastward from the eastern
Dakotas into MN -- along a surface boundary extending southwestward
through the central Plains. Farther west, an additional
low-amplitude impulse accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will
emerge over the northern/central High Plains during the late
afternoon/early evening.

...Upper MS Valley into the central Plains...
Scattered thunderstorms should generally be focused along/ahead of
the frontal-wave low and remnant MCV as it moves into MN during the
afternoon, with additional trailing development possible along the
surface boundary into NE. Here, rich boundary-layer moisture and
modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to a strongly
unstable air mass, while the enhanced midlevel westerly flow yields
around 40 kt of effective shear. This should support a risk of a
couple supercells and organized clusters capable of producing large
hail, damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes.

...Southeast MT into the central High Plains...
As low-level lapse rates diurnally steepen amid
recycled/post-frontal boundary-layer moisture over the
northern/central High Plains, scattered thunderstorms should evolve
eastward from southeast MT/eastern WY into the central Plains --
aided by the emerging midlevel impulse. Upwards of 40-50 kt of
effective shear and steepening deep-layer lapse rates will favor
large hail and locally severe wind gusts with initial
discrete/semi-discrete supercell structures and organized clusters.
As these storms track east-southeastward into the evening,
additional storms may be developing farther south along the southwestward-extending surface boundary over western/central
NE/northeastern CO/northwest KS. While the overall convective
evolution is unclear, current thinking is that multiple
opportunities for upscale growth into one or more MCSs will exist in
the NE/KS vicinity into the evening/overnight hours. A swath of
severe wind will be possible where this evolution occurs.

..Weinman/Leitman.. 06/16/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 161256
SWODY1
SPC AC 161254

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging
gusts, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are forecast
today across parts of the northern/central Plains into the Upper
Mississippi Valley.

...Upper Mississippi Valley...
With ongoing thunderstorms across parts of MN this morning,
confidence is lower than usual regarding severe potential and
convective evolution later today across MN into WI. A decayed MCS
over western MN this morning and a related MCV/surface low over ND
will continue to track northeastward across MN through the day. A
seasonably moist low-level airmass, with surface dewpoints generally
in the low to mid 60s, is present this morning across southern MN.
Some northward advance of this low-level moisture across parts of central/northern MN is anticipated through the afternoon in advance
of the MCV and a convectively reinforced front/outflow. Filtered
daytime heating of this airmass should result in at least moderate
instability developing in a narrow corridor, with robust convective
development increasingly likely by 20-22Z.

There is still a fairly high degree of uncertainty regarding how far
south intense thunderstorms will develop across MN/eastern SD this afternoon/evening. Somewhat greater confidence in severe
thunderstorms exists in closer proximity to the MCV across central
into northern MN. Have therefore expanded severe probabilities
northward a bit across this area. Initial development will likely be supercellular given around 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear forecast,
with an associated threat for scattered large to very large hail
(isolated 2+ inches in diameter possible). Sufficient low-level
shear is also forecast with the MCV to support a threat for a few
tornadoes, especially along an effective warm front that should be
draped generally west to east across central/northern MN. By early
evening, some upscale growth/clustering may occur, with an increased
risk for severe/damaging winds into eastern MN/western WI and
vicinity. Convection should eventually weaken with eastward extent
across the Upper MS Valley tonight as it moves into a less unstable
airmass.

...Northern/Central Plains...
Modest post frontal, low-level upslope flow will occur today across
parts of the northern Rockies/High Plains. Convective initiation
should initially occur along/near the higher terrain in southern MT
and northern/eastern WY by mid to late afternoon. A subtle mid-level
shortwave trough embedded within otherwise modestly enhanced
southwesterly flow should aid in this thunderstorm development.
Steep low/mid-level lapse rates are expected to be in place across
this region, with daytime heating contributing to moderate
instability. Strong deep-layer shear around 40-50 kt is expected,
with elongated/nearly straight hodographs at mid/upper levels
supporting ample speed shear. Isolated to widely scattered
supercells will likely pose a threat for large to very large hail as
they develop east-southeastward over the northern High Plains this
afternoon and early evening. If a cluster or two can develop this
evening, then severe wind gusts would be possible given steepened
low-level lapse rates and a well-mixed boundary layer.

Additional robust thunderstorms will probably form this afternoon
along/near a convectively reinforced front that should be draped
generally northeast to southwest over NE, and separately across the
higher terrain of eastern WY/northern CO. Strong to locally extreme
instability is likely to develop along/south of this boundary with
strong diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass and the presence
of steep mid-level lapse rates. Sufficient deep-layer shear should
also exist to support some updraft organization, with a mix of
supercells and multicell clusters possible. Initial development
should pose some threat for large to very large hail. Multiple
opportunities for clustering and swaths of severe/damaging winds
(isolated 75+ mph possible in western/central NE) remain apparent,
both with the convection that develops along the surface boundary in
NE, and with thunderstorms spreading east-southeastward from the northern/central High Plains. A small southward expansion to the
Enhanced Risk has been made based on latest guidance trends. But,
confidence remains low in exactly how convective clusters will
evolve this afternoon/evening.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 06/16/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 161626
SWODY1
SPC AC 161625

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF NEBRASKA...AND PARTS OF MINNESOTA....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging
gusts, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are forecast
today across parts of the northern/central Plains into the Upper
Mississippi Valley.

...MN/IA...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over the
eastern Dakotas. As this trough moves eastward this afternoon, a
surface low will deepen over central MN with a trailing cold front
sweeping across the state. Morning convection is getting out of the
way, which should allow several hours of strong
heating/destabilization. Afternoon MLCAPE values of 3000+ J/kg are
expected, with little inhibition. This should lead to rapid
thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon near the surface low, with
at least widely scattered development southward along the cold front
into northern IA. Low-level winds are somewhat veered but strong.
This coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft should promote a few
supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or
two is also possible.

...NE/KS...
The aforementioned cold front will sag southward into northern NE by
early evening. A strong southerly low-level jet south of the front,
along with steep mid-level lapse rates and large CAPE, will promote
the development of scattered intense storms along the front.
Supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds are
expected, along with perhaps a tornado. Congealing outflows from
high-based convection are expected to move into the region during
the mid-evening from the west, resulting in upscale convective
growth and an increasing risk of damaging winds.

...MS/AL...
Strong heating is occurring today across much of MS and western AL,
where dewpoints are in the mid 70s. Clusters of thunderstorms are
forming over LA, which are expected to propagate northeastward
across the region through the day. Steep low-level lapse rates,
large CAPE, and relatively strong ambient low-level wind fields will
pose some of risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest
cells today.

..Hart/Wendt.. 06/16/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 161956
SWODY1
SPC AC 161954

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND PARTS OF MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging
gusts, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are forecast
today across parts of the northern/central Plains into the Upper
Mississippi Valley.

...20z Update...
Only minor adjustments were made to trim probabilities behind the
low/cold front in the Midwest and northern Plains. Otherwise, the
forecast remains on track with no large changes needed.

Scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to intensify across
portions of MN/IA this afternoon, with potential for damaging winds,
large hail, and a couple of tornadoes. See MCD#1311 for additional
information.

Across the northern Plains, a couple of supercells have developed in southeastern SD producing a few instances of severe hail. Additional development is expected across portions of NE/KS this afternoon,
with potential for large to very large hail and damaging winds. See
previous discussion of more information.

..Thornton.. 06/16/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025/

...MN/IA...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over the
eastern Dakotas. As this trough moves eastward this afternoon, a
surface low will deepen over central MN with a trailing cold front
sweeping across the state. Morning convection is getting out of the
way, which should allow several hours of strong
heating/destabilization. Afternoon MLCAPE values of 3000+ J/kg are
expected, with little inhibition. This should lead to rapid
thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon near the surface low, with
at least widely scattered development southward along the cold front
into northern IA. Low-level winds are somewhat veered but strong.
This coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft should promote a few
supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or
two is also possible.

...NE/KS...
The aforementioned cold front will sag southward into northern NE by
early evening. A strong southerly low-level jet south of the front,
along with steep mid-level lapse rates and large CAPE, will promote
the development of scattered intense storms along the front.
Supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds are
expected, along with perhaps a tornado. Congealing outflows from
high-based convection are expected to move into the region during
the mid-evening from the west, resulting in upscale convective
growth and an increasing risk of damaging winds.

...MS/AL...
Strong heating is occurring today across much of MS and western AL,
where dewpoints are in the mid 70s. Clusters of thunderstorms are
forming over LA, which are expected to propagate northeastward
across the region through the day. Steep low-level lapse rates,
large CAPE, and relatively strong ambient low-level wind fields will
pose some of risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest
cells today.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 170052
SWODY1
SPC AC 170051

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Valid 170100Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging
gusts, large to very large hail, and a couple tornadoes are forecast
through tonight across parts of the northern/central Plains into the
Upper Mississippi Valley.

...NE/KS vicinity...

The Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) has been expanded southward into
northwest KS with the 01z update, and the Slight risk (level 2 of 5)
has been expanded southward toward the KS/OK border. This is based
on:

1. Current location of the surface boundary draped across NE.
2. A very favorable thermodynamic environment downstream into
northwest KS (very steep lapse rates and strong instability on 00z
DDC RAOB).
3. A forecast 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet across western KS
this evening/tonight.

This should support organization of convection into a bow or forward-propagating cluster across southwest/south-central NE into northwest/north-central KS this evening/tonight. Scattered severe
gusts with isolated gusts to 80 mph will be possible. this activity
should gradually weaken as it approached south-central KS/northwest
OK late tonight.

See MCD 1320 for more information regarding short term severe
potential will ongoing convection across NE.

...MN/WI...

The Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) has been removed as convection is
expected to gradually weaken over the next couple of hours with
eastward extent. Isolated strong gusts/hail and perhaps a tornado or
two may persist with the strongest storms the next few hours before
this weakening occurs. See MCD 1321 for more short term information.

...IA...

A small MCS across western IA will continue to shift southeast the
next few hours. Isolated severe gusts will be possible with this
activity and the Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been expanded into
central IA. Gradual weakening should occur into eastern IA where
instability wanes and overall thermodynamic environment becomes less
favorable per the 00z DVN RAOB.

...MT/WY...

Severe probabilities have been trimmed across parts of southeast MT
behind ongoing convection. Isolated severe storms are expected to
continue across far southeast MT into northeast WY the remainder of
the evening.

...MS...

The Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been removed MS and vicinity as
convection has largely dissipated and/or weakened.

..Leitman.. 06/17/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 170602
SWODY1
SPC AC 170600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms producing damaging winds, hail, and possibly a
few tornadoes are expected today across parts of the central Plains
and lower to mid Missouri Valley. Outside of this area, marginally
severe storms will be possible across a large part of the central
U.S. Storms with isolated severe winds gusts may develop in parts of
the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic.

...Synopsis...

A low-amplitude upper shortwave trough over the Four Corners this
morning will eject east into the central/southern Plains by this
evening. This will result in a belt of enhanced southwesterly flow
across the central High Plains into KS/OK and the MO Valley. At the
surface, south/southeasterly low-level winds will maintain rich
boundary-layer moisture across southern KS and OK ahead of south/southeast-advancing cold front. This moisture will wrap around
a broad low over the central/southern High Plains into the foothills
of eastern CO as well. Outflow from prior day's convection (which
may be continuing across south-central/southeast KS/northern OK this
morning) will also extend eastward across central/southern KS
through peak heating. These boundaries, aided by the ejecting upper
shortwave trough and an increasing south/southwesterly low-level jet
during the evening across OK/KS will focus severe thunderstorm
develop through tonight from eastern CO into KS/OK and portions of
MO.

Additional thunderstorm activity is expected across much of the
Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic vicinity, though severe potential
will remain more isolated.

...CO/KS/OK/MO vicinity...

Isolated thunderstorms are expected along the CO foothills in a
moist, post-frontal upslope flow regime during the afternoon/early
evening. Cool temperatures aloft will support steep lapse rates amid elongated/straight hodographs, indicating large to very large hail
potential. As convection develops eastward into better low-level
moisture, clustering may occur over eastern CO, leading to an
increase in damaging wind potential by late afternoon/early evening.
Forecast guidance suggests upscale development should occur near to
CO/KS border, aided in part by the south/southeast-advancing cold
front and a strengthening (40-50 kt) southwesterly low-level jet.
Most forecast guidance, including CAMs, develop a swath of 70-100
mph 10 meter winds as a bowing MCS moves across western and central
KS. Strong heating during the day and ample boundary layer moisture
will support a corridor of 2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE within a steep
lapse rate environment. Swaths of damaging winds, with some greater
than 70 kt, will be possible. The favorable parameter space and
synoptically evident damaging wind pattern, an upgrade to Moderate
risk (level 4 of 5) has been introduced. The bowing MCS is expected
to track across KS and parts of northern OK and into southwest MO
during the night time hours, with gradually waning severe potential
with eastward extent into MO late tonight.

In addition to a damaging wind event during the evening/nighttime
hours, some potential for large to very large hail, and more
conditionally a couple of tornadoes, exists across portions of
central/eastern KS in the vicinity of an outflow boundary. Greater
uncertainty exists across this area as morning convection may
largely inhibit afternoon thunderstorms depending on the extent of
longevity of early storms. Nevertheless, supercell wind profiles
within a strongly unstable environment will be present. Any storms
developing along outflow could quickly become severe and produce
significant hail and a couple of tornadoes.

...Southern PA/WV/VA/MD...

Strong heating and a seasonally moist airmass are expected today
across the central Appalachians/southern Mid-Atlantic vicinity
within a modestly sheared environment. Thunderstorms are expected to
develop over higher terrain by early afternoon and spread east
through early evening. Some clustering may occur and isolated strong
to severe wind gusts may occur, particularly across parts of VA/MD
where stronger instability is forecast.

..Leitman/Weinman.. 06/17/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 171259
SWODY1
SPC AC 171258

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms producing numerous to widespread damaging
winds, scattered large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a few
tornadoes are expected today across parts of the central/southern
Plains and lower/mid Missouri Valley. The greatest threat for
destructive gusts up to 70-100 mph is forecast across portions of
Kansas and northern Oklahoma.

...Central/Southern Plains into the Lower/Mid Missouri Valley...
A small but intense bow echo that moved south-southeastward across
parts of KS overnight should continue to weaken this morning across
northeast OK. But in the short term, an isolated threat for severe
winds may continue until the cluster fully dissipates. Across
eastern CO, occasional severe hail may occur with marginal
supercells for another hour or two before additional weakening
occurs. The net effect of this overnight/early morning convection on
the severe potential across the southern/central Plains remains
uncertain. But, a trailing outflow boundary from the decaying MCS
now in northeast OK may prove instrumental in focusing significant
severe potential this afternoon/evening.

A subtle mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Great Basin and
central Rockies will continue to move eastward over the adjacent central/southern High Plains by this evening. At the surface,
further deepening of a low over southeast CO is anticipated through
the day, with this low forecast to develop into the TX Panhandle by
early evening. A lee trough/dryline will extend southward from this
low, while a convectively reinforced boundary should extend
somewhere along/near the KS/OK border by mid to late afternoon, and
potentially northeastward into eastern KS as well. The airmass
across east-central CO into western KS was generally not
convectively overturned yesterday into early this morning, with the
12Z sounding from DDC still showing around 2800 J/kg of MUCAPE
available.

Convective development and evolution remain uncertain later today.
Still, it appears likely that initially high-based thunderstorms
will develop over the higher terrain of central CO this afternoon,
and then spread east-southeastward over the adjacent High Plains
through the evening. Much of eastern CO and vicinity will be in a
post-frontal regime. But steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient
low-level moisture should support the development of moderate
instability. Strong deep-layer shear should foster supercells
initially, with associated threat for mainly large to isolated very
large hail. Some upscale growth may eventually occur with this
activity as it spreads into western KS this evening, along with an
increased threat for severe/damaging winds.

Farther east into central/eastern KS and MO, severe potential
remains highly uncertain, with a myriad of possible solutions
offered by various high-resolution guidance. In general, current
expectations are for an increasing threat for numerous to
potentially widespread severe/damaging winds across parts of KS into
northern OK, with one or more intense clusters potentially
developing in tandem with a strengthening low-level jet this evening
across the southern/central Plains. Significant severe gusts of 75+
mph remain possible, along with a few tornadoes with any sustained
supercells along/near the boundary this evening as low-level shear
strengthens. Overall, severe probabilities have been expanded
southward some across the OK/TX Panhandles and northern/central OK,
in an attempt to account for where the outflow boundary/front may be
present this afternoon/evening. Additional adjustments to risk areas
are likely with later outlook updates pending additional
observational and model data.

...Mid-Atlantic into the Tennessee Valley/Southeast...
Diurnal heating of a seasonally moist low-level airmass will occur
today across the central Appalachians/southern Mid-Atlantic within a
modestly sheared environment. Thunderstorms are expected to develop
over higher terrain by early afternoon, and subsequently spread
eastward through the evening. Some of this activity may form into
loosely organized clusters. Occasional strong/damaging winds should
be the main severe threat with this activity, particularly across
parts of VA/MD where stronger instability is forecast.

Farther south into the TN Valley/Southeast, a weak mid/upper-level
trough with multiple embedded perturbations should advance slowly
eastward through the day. Similar to yesterday, daytime heating of a
moist airmass should foster moderate to locally strong instability
this afternoon. Around 25-30 kt of mid-level southwesterly flow and
similar values of deep-layer shear should support some loose
convective organization with multiple thunderstorm clusters that can
develop. Have expanded the Marginal Risk for isolated damaging winds southwestward to account for this potential.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 06/17/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 171619
SWODY1
SPC AC 171618

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Valid 171630Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms producing numerous to widespread damaging
winds, scattered large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a few
tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of
the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat for destructive
gusts up to 70-100 mph is forecast across portions of southern
Kansas and northern Oklahoma.

...KS/OK...
Overnight and morning thunderstorm activity has significantly
changed the overall forecast for severe storms across the central
Plains for today. A severe MCS overspread parts of southeast KS and
northeast OK a few hours ago, pushing an outflow boundary southward
into central OK. Strong heating is occurring to the north of this
boundary, where rapid destabilization is expected this afternoon
across northern OK/southern KS. A consensus of 12z model guidance
shows this to be the corridor of rapid and intense thunderstorm
development. Forecast soundings show substantial low-level shear,
steep lapse rates, and sufficient winds aloft for supercells capable
of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Relatively warm
temperatures in the 850-700mb layer are a negative factor for a
greater tornado concern. Through the evening, congealing outflows
will likely result in a larger MCS posing a risk of widespread
damaging wind gusts into northeast OK and perhaps parts of northwest AR/southwest MO.

...Eastern CO/Southeast WY...
Overnight storms also impacted the forecast for this region today.
Easterly low-level winds (enhanced by outflow) have transported
moisture westward into the foothills, where rapid thunderstorm
development is expected by early afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse
rates and seasonably cool mid-level temperatures, coupled with
sufficiently strong westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of very
large hail in the strongest storms. A tornado or two is also
possible. It is unclear how far east this activity can make it into
the adjacent Plains, where persistent low-clouds and more stable
conditions will likely prevail. Refer to MCD #1330 for further
details.

..Hart/Wendt.. 06/17/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 172001
SWODY1
SPC AC 172000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Valid 172000Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms producing numerous to widespread damaging
winds, scattered large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a few
tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of
the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat for destructive
gusts up to 70-100 mph is forecast across portions of southern
Kansas and northern Oklahoma.

...20z Update Southern Plains...
A convective reinforced outflow boundary across west-central KS
continues to slowly push southward across southwest portions of the
state to near the OK border. This boundary will likely serve as the
focus for robust convective development this afternoon and evening,
as indicated by elevated development farther east. To the north of
the primary surface heating, this initial activity may quickly grow
upscale into one or more clusters before spreading southeast and
becoming more surface-based with time. Large to very large hail,
damaging gusts and some tornado risk are likely with these storms.

Across northwest OK, and the northeastern TX Panhandle, additional,
more isolated storms are likely this afternoon along the southern
most modified outflow and pseudo-triple point area. Surface obs and
18z AMA/LMN RAOBs show substantial low-level shear, large buoyancy
and favorable deep-layer shear for supercells capable of very large
hail and a few tornadoes across northern OK and far southern KS.
Current expectations are still that initially cellular convection
will rapidly develop and pose a severe risk through the afternoon,
before growing upscale as it interacts with additional storms over
KS this evening. One or more organized bows/clusters, capable of
very strong damaging gusts, hail and a couple of tornadoes are
likely this evening. Will maintain the MDT risk with minimal
trimming on the northwest side near the advancing outflow.

...Southeast to the Mid Atlantic...
Several clusters of strong to occasional severe storms are ongoing
and expected to continue this afternoon/evening. Moderate buoyancy
within a very moist air mass could support occasional damaging gusts
from heavily water-loaded downdrafts. Some degree of organization
into loose clusters could continue, especially across AL where
storms have shown slightly stronger cold pools. However, the overall
potential for storm organization is low with vertical shear
remaining quite weak. The severe risk should begin to weaken through
the early evening. Some minor trimming was made to the severe
probabilities along the western edge of the MRGL.

...Rockies...
Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, will continue
this afternoon. Confidence is highest in the severe threat remaining
near the I-25 corridor where more substantial heating has taken
place. Hail remains the primary risk, though a few damaging gusts
and a brief tornado remain possible.

..Lyons.. 06/17/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/

...KS/OK...
Overnight and morning thunderstorm activity has significantly
changed the overall forecast for severe storms across the central
Plains for today. A severe MCS overspread parts of southeast KS and
northeast OK a few hours ago, pushing an outflow boundary southward
into central OK. Strong heating is occurring to the north of this
boundary, where rapid destabilization is expected this afternoon
across northern OK/southern KS. A consensus of 12z model guidance
shows this to be the corridor of rapid and intense thunderstorm
development. Forecast soundings show substantial low-level shear,
steep lapse rates, and sufficient winds aloft for supercells capable
of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Relatively warm
temperatures in the 850-700mb layer are a negative factor for a
greater tornado concern. Through the evening, congealing outflows
will likely result in a larger MCS posing a risk of widespread
damaging wind gusts into northeast OK and perhaps parts of northwest AR/southwest MO.

...Eastern CO/Southeast WY...
Overnight storms also impacted the forecast for this region today.
Easterly low-level winds (enhanced by outflow) have transported
moisture westward into the foothills, where rapid thunderstorm
development is expected by early afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse
rates and seasonably cool mid-level temperatures, coupled with
sufficiently strong westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of very
large hail in the strongest storms. A tornado or two is also
possible. It is unclear how far east this activity can make it into
the adjacent Plains, where persistent low-clouds and more stable
conditions will likely prevail. Refer to MCD #1330 for further
details.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 180058
SWODY1
SPC AC 180057

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Valid 180100Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms producing swaths of damaging gusts (some
greater than 80 mph), large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a couple
tornadoes are possible through tonight, especially across parts of
southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma.

...KS/OK/MO vicinity...

One or more thunderstorm clusters/small bows are still forecast to
develop and shift east across the outlook area through tonight as a
surface front/composite outflow begins to develop southeast.
Thunderstorm coverage has recently increased across portions of
central KS, likely in response to a strengthening low-level jet
noted in regional VWP data over the last hour. Where strong heating
has occurred and dewpoints remain in the upper 60s to low 70s F,
intense convection is still possible. Isolated significant gusts
remain possible, supported by the 00z OUN RAOB showing midlevel
lapse rates near 8.5 C/km amid 3500 J/kg MLCAPE. The Moderate risk
(level 4 of 5) has been trimmed on the north and western edges and
confined to a thin strip of southern KS into northern OK where the
surface outflow is located along with the stronger instability
gradient. This corridor should have the greatest risk for
significant severe thunderstorms into the nighttime hours.

...WY/CO into NE...

Severe potential has waned across the High Plains this evening, with
some lingering risk for hail and gusty winds across parts of NE.
Overall severe potential should continue to gradually wane through
the evening and severe probabilities have been reduced where
boundary layer stabilization has occurred and instability has
weakened.

...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic...

Isolated strong gusts of 40-50 mph remain possible for another hour
or two, particularly across parts of NC/SC where a couple of forward propagating clusters persists. However, weak shear and a nocturnally stabilizing boundary layer should result in a gradual weakening
trend.

..Leitman.. 06/18/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 180529
SWODY1
SPC AC 180528

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND WESTERN OHIO...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are expected today from parts of southern
Missouri northeastward into southern lower Michigan and western
Ohio. Damaging winds, isolated hail, and a few tornadoes will be
possible. More isolated severe storms may develop across the
southern Plains.

...Midwest/Southern Great Lakes...

A shortwave upper trough is forecast to move across the Mid-MS
Valley and Midwest today. A swath of enhanced deep-layer
southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will overspread portions of
the Ozarks to the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes ahead of a
surface front. A seasonally warm and moist airmass ahead of the
front/composite outflow will support moderate destabilization. A
surface low/MCV will develop northeast across central/northern IL to
southern Lower MI during the afternoon into early evening. The
current expectation is that thunderstorms will develop ahead of the
surface low and front, with a mix of clusters and line segments.
Midlevel lapse rates will remain modest, but isolated large hail is
possible. More likely, damaging gusts will be the main hazard as
linear convection develops ahead of the front. Tornado potential is
possible near the surface low from portions of northeast IL into
northern IN/southern Lower MI where low-level shear may be
maximized. However, forecast guidance varies considerable regarding
this scenario, so will maintain 5 percent tornado probabilities at
this time.

...TX/OK to the Mid-South...

A very moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the
region. A northeast to southwest oriented outflow boundary related
to an MCS that is currently ongoing across northern OK as of 06z
this morning will be draped across the Red River/southern OK
vicinity into the Ozarks. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop diurnally. Large-scale ascent will be nebulous,
but supercell wind profiles and strong instability/steep lapse rates
will support isolated damaging wind and hail potential.

...Northern Plains...

Modest boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates
will support weak diurnal destabilization. Increasing
west/northwesterly flow with height will provide sufficient shear
for some storm organization and elongated/straight hodographs are
indicated in forecast soundings. Furthermore, a deeply mixed
boundary layer is evident. This should support isolated hail and
strong gusts during the afternoon/early evening.

...Mid-Atlantic...

Strong heating of a very moist airmass will support moderate
destabilization. Deep-layer westerly flow will remain somewhat weak,
but sufficient for multicell clusters. Strong gusts may accompany
this activity.

..Leitman/Weinman.. 06/18/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 181256
SWODY1
SPC AC 181254

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY...INDIANA...WESTERN OHIO...AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected today from parts of southern
Missouri northeastward to the southern Great Lakes. Scattered to
numerous damaging winds, isolated large hail, and a few tornadoes
all appear possible. Strong to severe thunderstorms may also develop
across parts of the southern Plains, northern Plains/Upper Midwest,
and Mid-Atlantic.

...Mid Mississippi/Ohio Valleys to the Southern Great Lakes...
Embedded within large-scale upper troughing, a well-defined MCV
evident on radar and visible satellite imagery over MO this morning
will quickly advance northeastward today across the mid MS Valley
into the Midwest, and eventually the southern Great Lakes this
evening. This feature will likely aid robust thunderstorm
development across parts of eastern IL into IN and vicinity by late morning/early afternoon. Sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear
will exist across the Midwest for updraft organization, including
supercells. However, convection may quickly become linear; so, it
remains unclear how long a supercell hail/tornado threat will exist. Regardless, filtered daytime heating of a rather moist low-level
airmass will aid the development of at least moderate instability
downstream of any convection that develops.

With 40-50 kt of low/mid-level southwesterly flow forecast across
parts of the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley/Midwest and steepening
low-level lapse rates through the day, scattered to perhaps numerous
damaging winds appear likely with organized clusters/bows spreading east-northeastward across these regions through the afternoon and
early evening. The severe wind threat should extend as far north as
parts of southern Lower MI, along/near a surface front. Some risk
for line-embedded tornadoes may also exist. By mid to late evening,
these clusters should gradually weaken as they continue eastward
into a less unstable environment across the OH Valley. But, they may
still pose some threat for damaging winds for as long as they can
remain surface based.

...Southern Plains to the Mid-South...
Ongoing convection across central OK may continue to pose an
isolated hail/wind threat in the short term this morning, before
eventually weakening as the nocturnal low-level jet aiding this
activity slowly subsides. In the wake of these early-day
thunderstorms, ample daytime heating of a seasonably moist airmass
is anticipated along/south of a convectively reinforced cold front,
with moderate to strong instability expected. The southern Plains
will be on the southern periphery of upper troughing across the
mid/upper MS Valley today, but enhanced mid-level winds should still
be present from parts of OK eastward into AR and the Mid-South.

Multiple bands/clusters should form this afternoon along/south of
the front in a favorable thermodynamic environment given the
continued presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, especially across
OK/TX. While deep-layer shear is not forecast to be overly strong,
it should still be sufficient for updraft organization, including
the potential for a few supercells. Initial development this
afternoon may pose more of a severe hail threat, before clustering
occurs and the risk for severe/damaging winds increases with
eastward/southward extent later in the afternoon and continuing into
the evening.

...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...
Behind upper troughing over the mid/upper MS Valley, northwesterly
mid-level flow around 25-40 kt should be present today over portions
of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Low-level moisture is
expected to remain fairly limited, with surface dewpoints mostly in
the 50s. Even so, steepened low/mid-level lapse rates are
anticipated through the afternoon, along with weak to moderate
instability. While large-scale ascent should remain weak, widely
scattered thunderstorms may still form and spread
east-southeastward, with some threat for isolated severe wind gusts
and marginally severe hail this afternoon and early evening. Modest
deep-layer shear should keep the overall severe threat fairly isolated/marginal.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Within modestly enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow, an embedded
weak perturbation is forecast move northeastward today from the southern/central Appalachians across the southern Mid-Atlantic. A
moist low-level airmass in place across this region, with surface
dewpoints generally in the upper 60s to low 70s. Ample daytime
heating will likely foster moderate to locally strong instability
along/east of the Blue Ridge Mountains by mid afternoon. Current
expectations are for thunderstorms to develop initially over the
higher terrain and move eastward in a modest deep-layer shear
environment. Some thunderstorm organization should occur, with
multicells as the main convective mode. This activity may pose some
threat for damaging winds this afternoon and evening until it moves
off the Atlantic Coast or weakens with the loss of daytime heating.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 06/18/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 181621
SWODY1
SPC AC 181619

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Valid 181630Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF ILLINOIS/INDIANA...WESTERN OHIO...AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from
parts of southeast Missouri northeastward to the southern Great
Lakes. Scattered to numerous damaging winds, isolated large hail,
and tornadoes all appear possible. Severe thunderstorms with
damaging winds may also develop across parts of the Mid-Atlantic.

...Midwest...
A well-defined shortwave trough is currently over western MO,
tracking rapidly eastward. At the surface, a low is centered over
northeast MO, with a very moist/unstable air mass in place across
much of IL/IN. As large-scale forcing for ascent and strengthening
wind fields overspread the unstable warm sector, supercell
thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop. All severe hazards,
including a few tornadoes, appear possible through the afternoon as
storms track rapidly northeastward across IL into central/northern
IN. Refer to MCD #1345 for further details. Congealing outflow may
eventually lead to a greater damaging wind threat as storms spread
into lower MI and northern OH.

To the southeast of this early thunderstorm scenario, another zone
of convective initiation is expected from southeast MO into parts of KY/southern IN. These storms are more likely to grow upscale by
early evening, with a risk of damaging winds spreading into southern
OH and central KY. Have expanded the ENH slightly eastward to
better cover this area.

...Mid Atlantic...
Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies and strong
heating occurring over northern/central VA, where a hot/humid
airmass is present. Thunderstorms are expected to develop off the
terrain this afternoon and spread eastward into the DelMarVa region.
Sufficient flow aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote
a risk of strong storms capable wind damage. Isolated strong storms
may also affect south-central VA and northern NC later this
afternoon as well. Refer to MCD #1344 for further details.

..Hart/Wendt.. 06/18/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 181957
SWODY1
SPC AC 181955

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Valid 182000Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from
parts of southeast Missouri northeastward to the southern Great
Lakes. Scattered to numerous damaging winds, isolated large hail,
and tornadoes all appear possible. Severe thunderstorms with
damaging winds may also develop across parts of the Mid-Atlantic.

...20z Update Midwest and Great Lakes...
A well-developed QLCS with multiple embedded bows and recent
measured severe gusts will continue eastward across IN and southern
lower MI this afternoon before reaching western OH this evening.
Moderate buoyancy and enhanced upper-level shear will support
continued storm organization with damaging gusts likely. Embedded
mesovorticies will also pose a risk for a few tornadoes. The main
changes to the outlook where to trim the Enhanced behind the
advancing QLCS.

Farther west near the core of the MCV, several clusters of miniature
supercells have a history of producing tornadoes. This may continue
for a couple more hours as storms near the MCV remain in 100-200
J/kg of low-level buoyancy and strong ambient vorticity. The
eastward extent of this threat is unclear as some overturning behind
the expanding QLCS will likely reduce the threat closer to the IN
border. Additional scattered storms across western MO behind the MCV
may also pose an isolated risk for damaging gusts and small hail
before weakening after dark.

...lower OH Valley...
Across far southeastern MO southern IL and western KY, additional
storm development will continue this afternoon and evening.
Displaced from the enhanced mid-level flow south of the MCV, a mixed
storm mode of supercells and line segments is expected. Large
buoyancy and the tendency for upscale growth suggests damaging winds
are likely. Low-level shear from the VWX/PAH VAD is maximized along
the low-level confluence axis which could also support a couple
tornadoes with the more discrete cells.

...Southern Plains...
A modified outflow boundary may serve as a focus for scattered storm development from the TX Panhandle to southern OK this
afternoon/evening. 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and ~30 kt of deep-layer
flow will support organized clusters or transient supercells with a
risk for hail and damaging gusts. Have expanded the Slight Risk into southwestern OK where storms appear most likely to develop. See
MCD#1350 for additional short-term information.

..Lyons.. 06/18/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025/

...Midwest...
A well-defined shortwave trough is currently over western MO,
tracking rapidly eastward. At the surface, a low is centered over
northeast MO, with a very moist/unstable air mass in place across
much of IL/IN. As large-scale forcing for ascent and strengthening
wind fields overspread the unstable warm sector, supercell
thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop. All severe hazards,
including a few tornadoes, appear possible through the afternoon as
storms track rapidly northeastward across IL into central/northern
IN. Refer to MCD #1345 for further details. Congealing outflow may
eventually lead to a greater damaging wind threat as storms spread
into lower MI and northern OH.

To the southeast of this early thunderstorm scenario, another zone
of convective initiation is expected from southeast MO into parts of KY/southern IN. These storms are more likely to grow upscale by
early evening, with a risk of damaging winds spreading into southern
OH and central KY. Have expanded the ENH slightly eastward to
better cover this area.

...Mid Atlantic...
Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies and strong
heating occurring over northern/central VA, where a hot/humid
airmass is present. Thunderstorms are expected to develop off the
terrain this afternoon and spread eastward into the DelMarVa region.
Sufficient flow aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote
a risk of strong storms capable wind damage. Isolated strong storms
may also affect south-central VA and northern NC later this
afternoon as well. Refer to MCD #1344 for further details.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 190054
SWODY1
SPC AC 190052

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Valid 190100Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms, with damaging winds, will spread across
portions of the Ohio/Tennessee Valley region this evening. Isolated
severe thunderstorms will also continue across portions of the Red
River region of southern Oklahoma and North Texas.

...01z Update...

Notable mid-level height falls will spread across the lower Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley overnight in response to a short-wave trough that
will advance into MI-IL by the end of the period. Synoptically, LLJ
is strengthening across the OH Valley ahead of the main surface
front that extends from Lake MI-central IL-central MO. While the
primary squall line has surged well ahead of the front into central
OH/KY, scattered convection is gradually increasing along the front
across MO/western IL. This activity may continue to increase as the
boundary surges southeast later tonight. Otherwise, the lead squall
line is expected to propagate into the upper Ohio Valley with an
attendant threat of damaging winds.

Farther southwest into the southern Plains, 00z soundings from both
OUN and FWD exhibit minimal CINH with seasonally high PW values and
strong MLCAPE (>3000 J/kg). Both soundings have adequate deep-layer
shear for organized updrafts, but the Red River corridor should only
experience weak low-level warm advection through the overnight
period. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be the most likely
scenario given the weak forcing along this portion of the boundary.

..Darrow.. 06/19/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 190553
SWODY1
SPC AC 190552

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Middle Atlantic
region, and to a lesser extent into the Carolinas and over portions
of New England. Severe wind gusts are the primary concern. Isolated
hail and wind threat is expected across the northern Plains into
Minnesota, primarily during the evening/overnight.

...Eastern U.S...

Seasonally strong upper trough is currently located over IL and
should advance into the OH Valley by 18z as stronger 500mb flow
develops across western PA/NY. With time, 50+kt flow should
translate into the Middle Atlantic, coincident/just ahead of the
primary synoptic front. Latest model guidance suggests modest 0-3km
lapse rates will develop by mid day as the boundary layer warms
ahead of the wind shift, especially from the Carolinas into Upstate
NY. In fact, much of the I-95 corridor over the Middle Atlantic will
warm quickly through the 80s to near 90F, effectively removing any
inhibition. As a result, convection should readily develop within a
very moist environment (PWs 1.75-2 inches) characterized by MLCAPE
in excess of 2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings exhibit deep
west-southwesterly flow with 0-6km bulk shear around 30kt. These
profiles favor organized line segments and clusters, and severe wind
gusts will likely be noted with the most robust activity. Convection
should spread off the Middle Atlantic Coast during the evening
hours.

...Northern Plains/Upper MS Valley...

Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a short-wave trough over
southeast BC. This feature will suppress heights across southern
AB/SK early in the period, and a secondary disturbance will eject
across southern SK during the evening. These features are expected
to encourage convective development along the cool side of a
boundary that will be draped from the upper MS Valley-central
ND-southern SK. Low-level warm advection should aid bouts of
elevated convection, but the primary concern is with thunderstorms
that evolve during the early evening. Storms that form over
southeastern SK and southwestern MB will spread southeast toward a
region of increasing low-level warm advection. LLJ is forecast to
increase across eastern SD into southwest MN during the late
evening. Elevated supercells should develop ahead of the Canadian
convection as the LLJ strengthens into the upper Red River Valley.
An MCS may ultimately evolve over the upper MS Valley late in the
period as the LLJ shifts into southeast MN/southwestern WI. Hail and
wind are the primary concern with this activity.

..Darrow/Weinman.. 06/19/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 191251
SWODY1
SPC AC 191250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Mid-Atlantic
region today, and to a lesser extent into the Carolinas and over
portions of New England. Severe/damaging wind gusts are the primary
concern. An isolated large hail threat should also develop across
parts of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, primarily during the evening/overnight hours.

...New England/Mid-Atlantic into North Carolina...
An upper trough will move eastward today from the Great Lakes/OH
Valley across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Seasonably strong
southwesterly mid-level flow around 40-50 kt will accompany this
upper trough passage, and aid in sufficient deep-layer shear for
organized severe thunderstorms across these regions. Recent visible
satellite imagery and surface observations show mostly clear skies
and a moist low-level airmass already in place from the Appalachians
towards the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Ample diurnal heating through this
afternoon should support moderate to locally strong instability
across much of the Mid-Atlantic, with somewhat weaker instability
with northward extent into interior New England.

Current expectations are for multiple cells/clusters to initially
form over the higher terrain of the Appalachians/Blue Ridge
Mountains by early to mid afternoon, and subsequently spread
east-northward to the coast through the afternoon and evening. Given
steepened low-level lapse rates and enhanced low/mid-level flow
associated with the upper trough, scattered to potentially numerous severe/damaging winds will likely be the primary threat with this
convection. The greatest concentration of wind damage should be
focused across parts of the Mid-Atlantic, where the Enhanced Risk
has been maintained with only minor expansion. Otherwise, isolated
hail may also occur with any of the more cellular convection, even
though mid-level lapse rates are not forecast to be overly steep. A
brief tornado or two also appears possible, although low-level winds
will generally be veered to west-southwesterly, limiting 0-1 km SRH.

...Southeast...
A band of thunderstorms is ongoing this morning across parts of the Mid-South/Southeast. This activity has generally remained sub-severe
overnight, and on the southern periphery of an upper trough to the
north. With strong daytime heating of a rather moist low-level
airmass in place to its south and modest deep-layer shear for
updraft organization, there is some opportunity for this convection
to either restrengthen through the afternoon as it spreads
southward, or for redevelopment to occur along its outflow. Have
adjusted the Marginal Risk for damaging winds based on the current
position of ongoing thunderstorms, and their potential to move
southward across parts of the Southeast/central Gulf Coast states
this afternoon/early evening before eventually weakening near the
Gulf Coast.

...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...
Upper ridging will be maintained today over much of the Rockies and
High Plains. This will tend to suppress convective development for
much of the day. Still, a weak mid-level shortwave trough will move
from western Canada across the Canadian Prairie provinces today,
eventually reaching parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest
tonight. This feature, along with increasing low-level warm/moist
advection associated with a strengthening southwesterly low-level
jet across the northern/central Plains this evening, may be
sufficient to aid at least isolated robust thunderstorm development
tonight generally along and north of a surface boundary. Strong
MUCAPE, steep lapse rates aloft, and ample deep-layer shear would
likely support supercells with associated threat for large hail in a
favorable northwesterly mid/upper-level flow regime. There is still
some uncertainty with the placement and overall coverage of these
supercells tonight, but based on latest guidance trends the Slight
Risk has been expanded eastward to include more of central/eastern
MN and western/northern WI. Isolated damaging winds may also occur
if an MCS is able to develop, although this remains highly
uncertain.

...Central Plains...
Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop this afternoon
across parts of the central Plains along/east of surface lee
troughing. Even though deep-layer shear and forcing aloft will not
be as pronounced as farther north, there appears to be some chance
for high-based convection to develop and pose an isolated hail/wind
threat.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 06/19/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 191617
SWODY1
SPC AC 191615

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Valid 191630Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Mid-Atlantic
region this afternoon and evening, and to a lesser extent into the
Carolinas and over portions of New England. Severe/damaging wind
gusts are the primary concern. An isolated large hail and damaging
wind threat should also develop across parts of the northern
Plains/Upper Midwest, primarily during the evening/overnight hours.

...Eastern US...
A broad and low-amplitude shortwave trough is moving across the
Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the trough,
visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies from eastern NY
and much of New England southward across the Mid-Atlantic region and
Carolinas. Warm/moist conditions will develop by mid-afternoon,
yielding MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg across this broad area.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, with the highest concentrations moving off the higher terrain of PA/VA/NC and
tracking eastward across the ENH risk area.

Forecast soundings along this corridor show 35-50 knot westerly flow
aloft, which will aid in thunderstorm organization and longevity.
Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, and mid-level lapse
rates are marginal for intense updrafts. This suggests that
damaging wind gusts are the primary concern today.

...ND/MN/WI This Evening/Tonight...
A large upper ridge has become established across the Rockies and
High Plains, with the primary westerlies now extending from MT into
the Dakotas and Great Lakes. Several weak perturbations will top
the ridge today and tonight, and a strengthening low-level jet will
encourage the development of clusters of thunderstorms. One cluster
is expected this evening over parts of MN/WI, with a risk of large
hail.

There is increasing concern for a cluster of storms developing
across southern ND, which may persist through the night into
southern MN. While this scenario is only shown in a handful of 12z
models, have shifted the SLGT farther south for this conditional
risk.

..Hart/Wendt.. 06/19/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 191952
SWODY1
SPC AC 191951

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Valid 192000Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
DAKOTAS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Mid-Atlantic
region through this evening, and to a lesser extent into the
Carolinas and over portions of New England. Severe/damaging wind
gusts are the primary concern. An isolated large hail and damaging
wind threat should also develop across parts of the northern
Plains/Upper Midwest, primarily during the evening/overnight hours.

...20z Update...
The prior outlook remains valid with only minimal changes. Across
parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic, several bands/clusters of
strong to severe storms are ongoing ahead of an upper trough over
the upper OH Valley. Moderate buoyancy and deep-layer shear will
continue to support storm organization into line segments and
clusters with an attendant risk for damaging gusts focused across
the Enhanced area. A few weak supercell structures were also noted
over eastern PA into southern New England, where some isolated hail
and a brief tornado will be possible. Convection should continue
into this evening before slowly weakening after sunset.

...Southeast...
In the wake of early morning remnant storms, an advancing outflow
has shifted south across MS/AL and eastern AR. The cluster of storms
on the surging outflow may occasionally produce damaging guts given
the moderate instability. Weak vertical shear should keep the threat
isolated. Have trimmed the MRGL and thunder behind this activity
where additional storms are not expected.

Otherwise, additional storms are possible across the Northern Plains
tonight. See the prior discussion for more info.

..Lyons.. 06/19/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025/

...Eastern US...
A broad and low-amplitude shortwave trough is moving across the
Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the trough,
visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies from eastern NY
and much of New England southward across the Mid-Atlantic region and
Carolinas. Warm/moist conditions will develop by mid-afternoon,
yielding MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg across this broad area.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, with the highest concentrations moving off the higher terrain of PA/VA/NC and
tracking eastward across the ENH risk area.

Forecast soundings along this corridor show 35-50 knot westerly flow
aloft, which will aid in thunderstorm organization and longevity.
Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, and mid-level lapse
rates are marginal for intense updrafts. This suggests that
damaging wind gusts are the primary concern today.

...ND/MN/WI This Evening/Tonight...
A large upper ridge has become established across the Rockies and
High Plains, with the primary westerlies now extending from MT into
the Dakotas and Great Lakes. Several weak perturbations will top
the ridge today and tonight, and a strengthening low-level jet will
encourage the development of clusters of thunderstorms. One cluster
is expected this evening over parts of MN/WI, with a risk of large
hail.

There is increasing concern for a cluster of storms developing
across southern ND, which may persist through the night into
southern MN. While this scenario is only shown in a handful of 12z
models, have shifted the SLGT farther south for this conditional
risk.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 200101
SWODY1
SPC AC 200100

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Valid 200100Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with large to very large hail and
damaging wind gusts are expected across the northern Plains and
upper Mississippi Valley this evening into tonight. Isolated severe
gusts will also be possible from central and eastern North Carolina north-northeastward to New England.

...Northern and Central Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley...
Latest water vapor imagery at mid-levels shows a ridge over the High
Plains, with west-northwesterly flow over much of the central and
northern Plains. At the surface, a 1002 mb low is located over
north-central South Dakota, with a trough extending
south-southwestward into northwest Kansas. An axis of low-level
moisture is analyzed from central Plains northward to near the
surface low and northwestward into western North Dakota. Along this
corridor, the RAP has MLCAPE mostly in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range.
A severe storm is currently ongoing near the instability max in
southwest North Dakota, with additional isolated severe storms
located in north-central Nebraska and northwest Kansas.

Moderate deep-layer shear is present across much of the central and
northern Plains, which will contribute to an environment supportive
of supercells this evening. A severe threat with more longevity is
expected in the northern Plains. The Bismarck 00Z sounding has a 0-6
km shear around 40 knots, with nearly dry adiabatic low to mid-level
lapse rates. This will support supercells with large to very large
hail, possibly greater than 2 inches in diameter. This, combined
with surface dewpoints in the lower 60s F and substantial
directional shear from the surface to 700 mb, will also support an
isolated tornado threat.

Concerning future convective development, the latest HRRR maintains
a widely spaced coverage for much of the early to mid evening, but
then begins to increases thunderstorm coverage over eastern parts of
the northern Plains late this evening. As the nose of a low-level
jet moves into the eastern Dakotas, a cluster of severe storms is
expected to develop and move eastward into the upper Mississippi
Valley tonight. Supercells with large hail will be possible with
cells than remain discrete. However, linear mode should become
favored, which will likely support an increase in the potential for
severe gusts.

...Eastern States...
A mid-level trough is currently evident on water vapor imagery over
the southern and central Appalachians. Ahead of the trough, a moist
airmass is present from the Carolinas north-northeastward into New
England. The RAP suggests that instability is weak along and ahead
of the surface trough. Short-term model forecasts suggest that
scattered convective coverage will continue over the next few hours.
00Z soundings across the region show moderate deep-layer shear and
have steep lapse rates around 850 mb. This should support an
isolated severe threat over the next couple of hours as low-level
flow gradually increases. Severe wind gusts will be the primary
threat, associated with short bowing line segments.

..Broyles.. 06/20/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 200601
SWODY1
SPC AC 200600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon into tonight from far
eastern Montana eastward across the northern Plains and into the
upper Mississippi Valley. Tornadoes, with one or two potentially
strong, winds greater than 75 mph, and hailstones greater than 2
inches in diameter will be possible. Marginally severe storms will
also be possible across parts of the northeast New Mexico and
southeast Colorado.

...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley...
A mid-level shortwave ridge will move eastward today from the
northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. In the wake of
the ridge, a shortwave trough will move quickly east-northeastward
across the northern Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen over
northwestern South Dakota. To the north and northeast of the low, an east-to-west axis of low-level moisture will take shape by
afternoon, along which surface dewpoints will be in the lower to mid
70s F. In response to surface heating, moderate to strong
instability is expected to develop across much of the northern
Plains by afternoon. Convection is first expected to initiate in far
eastern Montana late this afternoon. From this convection,
thunderstorms are forecast to rapidly grow upscale into a
fast-moving linear MCS, with the track of the MCS moving eastward
along a sharp gradient of instability.

RAP late afternoon forecast soundings along the projected track of
the MCS in southeastern North Dakota have MLCAPE around 4500 J/Kg,
with 0-6 km shear near 60 knots. Lapse rates are forecast to be near
8 C/km, and 0-3 km storm relative helicity is forecast to be between
350 and 400 m2/s2. This environment should be favorable for all
hazards, including tornadoes, large hail and wind damage. Tornadoes
will be most likely with supercells and along the leading edge of
bowing segments. A strong tornado or two will be possible. The more
dominant supercells will also be capable of producing hailstones
greater than 2 inches in diameter. A wind-damage threat should exist
along the entire north-south length of the MCS, with a few gusts
over 75 mph possible. The severe threat is expected to continue
through this evening and into the overnight period as the MCS tracks
eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley.

Further southward across much of the Upper Midwest, a few warm-advection-related thunderstorms will be possible early in the
day. Although these cells may be elevated, a marginal severe threat
will be possible, with a potential for isolated severe gusts and
hail.

...Northeast New Mexico/Southeast Colorado...
Southwest mid-level flow will become established across the southern
and central Rockies today. As surface temperatures warm, isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher
terrain. These storms will move into the lower elevations late this
afternoon into this evening. Although instability will be weak,
low-level lapse rates will be very steep, around 9.5 C/Km in some
areas. This could be enough for isolated severe gusts, associated
with low-precipitation cells.

..Broyles/Moore.. 06/20/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 201256
SWODY1
SPC AC 201254

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon into tonight from far
eastern Montana eastward across the northern Plains and into the
upper Mississippi Valley. Tornadoes, winds greater than 75 mph, and
hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will all be possible.

...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley...
Showers and thunderstorms have persisted throughout much of the
night into early this morning across central/southern MN, much of IA
and central WI. This activity was supported by a persistent and
moderately strong low-level jet. Expectation is for this cluster to
persist for the next few hours while gradually losing strength amid
a weakening low-level jet.

A very moist airmass exists to the west of this cluster across the
Great Plains. Recent surface analysis places mid 60s dewpoints
through eastern NE, with low 60s reaching into south-central ND.
Surface analysis also places a low near the central SD/NE border
vicinity, with a warm front arcing southeastward from this low
across northeastern NE and western IA before becoming oriented more north-to-south over western MO. Expectation throughout the day is
for this warm front to become better defined as the current surface
low fills and another develops over western SD. This evolution will
be supported as the shortwave trough currently located over the
Great Basin progresses quickly northeastward towards the northern
Plains.

By the mid to late afternoon, a deep surface low will likely be over
western SD with a sharp warm front extending eastward from the low
roughly along the ND/SD border through central MN. Upper 60s to low
70s dewpoints are anticipated along this frontal zone by the late
afternoon, with surface temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s.
These surface conditions beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will
result in strong to extreme buoyancy, with HREF mean SBCAPE ranging
from 2000 J/kg across western ND to over 4500 J/kg from northeastern
SD into central MN. Thunderstorm development is expected across
eastern MT as the approaching shortwave trough interacts with this
buoyant airmass during the late afternoon. Additionally, surface
convergence could lead to thunderstorm development along the front
farther east from ND into northern MN around the same time. Given
the environment, storms in both of these areas should quickly become
severe, with large to very large hail and tornadoes as the primary
risk. The storms over eastern MT will likely grow upscale into an
organized convective line, although their is still uncertainty
regarding how quickly this occurs. Environmental conditions support
the development of a forward-progressing convective line capable of
strong to severe wind gusts. Some gust over 75 mph are possible. The
potential for line-embedded tornadoes exists as well. The threat for
damaging gusts with this line should continue into Upper Great Lakes
region early Saturday morning.

...Southern/Central High Plains...
Isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible across the region
amid increasing mid-level moisture and glancing ascent from a
shortwave trough farther north. A few strong gusts are possible as
these storms move into the lower elevations this evening.

..Mosier/Leitman.. 06/20/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 201627
SWODY1
SPC AC 201625

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Valid 201630Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT FROM EASTERN MONTANA...ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
DAKOTA...INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA....

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon into tonight from far
eastern Montana eastward across the northern Plains and into the
upper Mississippi Valley. Tornadoes, winds greater than 75 mph, and
hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will all be possible.

...Eastern MT/ND/MN/WI/Upper MI...
No significant changes have been made to the ongoing outlook. Water
vapor imagery shows a deepening upper trough over the northern
Rockies, with a pronounced shortwave trough entering western MT.
Strong lift associated with this trough will overspread eastern MT
and western ND this evening, leading to the development of scattered
supercell thunderstorms in a region of backed/upslope flow to the
north of the surface low. These storms will track eastward through
the evening across ND and eventually grow upscale. Very large hail
and tornadoes will be possible for the first few hours of this
scenario, with an increasing risk of damaging winds with time. An
upgrade to MDT risk was considered, but will maintain ENH due to
diversity of solutions in various model guidance and uncertainty of
corridor of greatest threat.

Farther east, an increasingly strong nocturnal low-level jet will
help rapid thunderstorm development from eastern ND into MN this
evening. Parameters in this area are very favorable for supercells
capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and
tornadoes. However, late initiation of storms, warm temperatures in
the 850-700mb layer, and rapid storm interactions lend uncertainty
regarding the evolution of this activity. Some 12z guidance
suggests one or more bowing structures evolve out of this cluster,
tracking eastward overnight across MN into WI and Upper MI.

...Western MT...
As the aforementioned shortwave trough moves eastward, scattered
thunderstorms are forecast to develop off the mountains of western
MT. Widespread cloud cover will limit heating/destabilization, but
favorable deep-layer shear may support a few rotating thunderstorms.
Hail could occur in the strongest storms.

...Southeast Lower MI...
A convectively-aided shortwave trough is moving across Lake MI and
western Lower MI. This feature may encourage the development of
scattered thunderstorms this afternoon over southeast Lower MI and
western Lake Erie. These storms could produce gusty winds and hail.

...High Plains...
Full sunshine will lead to steep low-level lapse rates and moderate
CAPE values this afternoon from southwest NE into eastern NM. Deep
mixing will likely result in widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. This high-based activity will be capable of locally
damaging wind gusts.

..Hart/Squitieri.. 06/20/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 201955
SWODY1
SPC AC 201954

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Valid 202000Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR
EASTERN MONTANA...ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA TO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely late this afternoon into tonight
from far eastern Montana eastward across the northern Plains and
into the upper Mississippi Valley. Tornadoes, winds greater than 75
mph, and hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will all be
possible.

...20z Update Northern Plains...
Confidence in the overall convective evolution of storms expected
today and tonight remains low. Recent observations and CAM guidance
show potential for isolated supercell development within a focused
low-level upslope regime across far eastern MT and southwestern ND.
Current expectations are that isolated storms may develop late this
afternoon and track eastward along the stationary front in eastern
MT and southern ND with a risk for all hazards. Given this
potential, the Slight Risk has been expanded southwestward toward
the MT/WY/SD border where strong heating and low-level convergence
are being maximized near the surface low.

Farther east across ND and western MN, confidence in surface-based
storm initiation remains quite low owing to warm 700 mb temperatures
(13-16 C) and mid-level ridging. However, very strong heating and
mixing (max sfc temps near/exceeding 100 F to the south) may provide
enough ascent for isolated high-based storm development in the early
evening. Should they remain surface-based, they will mature within
an extremely buoyant, and very strongly sheared air mass supportive
of significant severe weather including; very large hail and
tornadoes.

A perhaps more plausible scenario is for scattered storm initiation
from strong low-level warm advection, courtesy of a 40-60 kt
low-level jet, later tonight across central/eastern ND. Likely
elevated, these supercells would pose a risk for large to very large
hail and damaging gusts before growing upscale along the front into
the western Great Lakes overnight. Should this occur, one or more
organized bows with significant damaging winds and a couple
tornadoes is possible. Given the conditional risk and resulting
uncertainties, the outlook remains largely unchanged.

...Florida...
Scattered thunderstorms have developed along typical sea breeze
boundaries across the FL Space Coast to near Tampa Bay. Moderate to
large CAPE (2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE) will continue to support
strong pulse updrafts through this evening. Some of these storms
could produce an isolated damaging gust or small hail However, very
weak mid and upper level flow suggests storm organization is
unlikely and the threat will likely remain below 5%.

..Lyons.. 06/20/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025/

...Eastern MT/ND/MN/WI/Upper MI...
No significant changes have been made to the ongoing outlook. Water
vapor imagery shows a deepening upper trough over the northern
Rockies, with a pronounced shortwave trough entering western MT.
Strong lift associated with this trough will overspread eastern MT
and western ND this evening, leading to the development of scattered
supercell thunderstorms in a region of backed/upslope flow to the
north of the surface low. These storms will track eastward through
the evening across ND and eventually grow upscale. Very large hail
and tornadoes will be possible for the first few hours of this
scenario, with an increasing risk of damaging winds with time. An
upgrade to MDT risk was considered, but will maintain ENH due to
diversity of solutions in various model guidance and uncertainty of
corridor of greatest threat.

Farther east, an increasingly strong nocturnal low-level jet will
help rapid thunderstorm development from eastern ND into MN this
evening. Parameters in this area are very favorable for supercells
capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and
tornadoes. However, late initiation of storms, warm temperatures in
the 850-700mb layer, and rapid storm interactions lend uncertainty
regarding the evolution of this activity. Some 12z guidance
suggests one or more bowing structures evolve out of this cluster,
tracking eastward overnight across MN into WI and Upper MI.

...Western MT...
As the aforementioned shortwave trough moves eastward, scattered
thunderstorms are forecast to develop off the mountains of western
MT. Widespread cloud cover will limit heating/destabilization, but
favorable deep-layer shear may support a few rotating thunderstorms.
Hail could occur in the strongest storms.

...Southeast Lower MI...
A convectively-aided shortwave trough is moving across Lake MI and
western Lower MI. This feature may encourage the development of
scattered thunderstorms this afternoon over southeast Lower MI and
western Lake Erie. These storms could produce gusty winds and hail.

...High Plains...
Full sunshine will lead to steep low-level lapse rates and moderate
CAPE values this afternoon from southwest NE into eastern NM. Deep
mixing will likely result in widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. This high-based activity will be capable of locally
damaging wind gusts.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 210102
SWODY1
SPC AC 210101

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0801 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Valid 210100Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
A significant swath of severe winds is expected this evening and
tonight from the northern Plains eastward into the upper Mississippi
Valley.

...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley...
Water vapor imagery currently shows a shortwave trough moving
through the northern High Plains. Near the trough, a line of strong
to severe thunderstorms is ongoing across western North Dakota and
far northwestern South Dakota. As these storms move eastward across
the northern Plains this evening, a 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet will
move northeastward through the Dakotas. Lift associated the left
exit region of the jet, combined with a strongly unstable airmass
over the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota will be favorable for
vigorous convective development. In response, the ongoing storms are
expected to grow upscale into a fast-moving severe MCS. The MCS is
forecast to track eastward across far northern South Dakota, North
Dakota and north-central Minnesota this evening.

At the surface, a 991 mb low will move northeastward across northern
South Dakota this evening. A tongue of very moist air with surface
dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F will move northward into
southeastern North Dakota and central Minnesota this evening. Within
this moist airmass, strong instability is analyzed by the RAP with
MLCAPE in the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range. The ongoing line of severe
storms will move into this strong instability, and gradually
intensify over the next couple of hours. RAP forecast soundings
along the expected track of the MCS in southeastern North Dakota
this evening have moderate to strong deep-layer shear, long and
looped hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates. This should be
favorable for supercells with large hail, wind damage and tornadoes.
A strong tornado may occur. Supercell development will be most
likely among cells that remain semi-discrete. However, a line is
expected to become more organized, which will make severe wind gusts
likely along its leading edge. Gusts above 80 mph will be possible
ahead of the more intense parts of the line. A Derecho may develop
across parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley
this evening into tonight.

As the MCS moves into central South Dakota over the next few hours,
some short-term model forecasts develop discrete cells further to
the east near the moist axis in the vicinity of the ND-SD-MN triple
point. These storms are forecast to quickly expand in coverage and
move across northwest and north-central Minnesota, ahead of the
approaching MCS. These storms will likely be supercellular, and be
associated with large to very large hail, wind damage and possible
tornadoes.

A consolidation of the two areas of convection will likely take
place late this evening, with the severe MCS continuing to track
eastward across north-central Minnesota. A wind-damage swath is
expected as far east as northern Wisconsin and the western Upper
Peninsula of Michigan. Wind gusts of 85 to 105 mph will be possible
along parts of the MCS track.

...Southern Rockies/Central High Plains...
Water vapor imagery shows southwest flow over much of the
south-central U.S. A subtle shortwave trough appears to be located
in the southern Rockies, where convection has increased in coverage
over the last couple of hours. These storms will continue to move
northeastward into the High Plains this evening. Forecast soundings
from northeast New Mexico into northwest Kansas early this evening
have very steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This will likely
support a marginal threat for severe gusts, as the cells move into
the stronger instability over the High Plains.

..Broyles.. 06/21/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 210530
SWODY1
SPC AC 210528

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe wind gusts and hail
will be possible today from the northern Plains into the Upper
Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes.

...Great Lakes...
A mid-level ridge will move quickly eastward into the Northeast
today, as trailing shortwave trough moves through the Great Lakes.
An MCS with some severe potential will likely be ongoing at the
start of the period in the vicinity of Lake Superior.
Warm-advection-related convection is expected to develop along the
southern edge of the decaying MCS from the Upper Peninsula of
Michigan eastward into northern sections of the Lower Peninsula of
Michigan. As low-level lapse rates steepen during the morning,
isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible with short line
segments. During the afternoon, the brunt of the convection is
forecast to move across southwestern Ontario. The southern edge of
this cluster may move back into the lower 48, affecting parts of New
York during the late afternoon. In central New York, moderate
instability is forecast along with northwest mid-level flow around
50 knots. This should be enough for an isolated wind-damage threat
with the faster-moving short line segments. Hail will also be
possible with the stronger cores.

Further south into parts of northern Pennsylvania, moderate
instability is forecast to develop by afternoon. Due to a lack of
large-scale ascent, convective coverage is expected to be very
isolated. Any cell that can initiate in the higher terrain could
have potential for marginally severe wind gusts.

...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley...
Anticyclonic southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today
across much of the north-central U.S. At the surface, a post-frontal
airmass will be in place over much of the northern Plains. Behind
the front, a moist airmass will remain over parts of the Dakotas,
where surface heating should yield moderate instability by
afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will remain weak across most
of the region, pockets of low-level convergence are forecast to
develop within this airmass. This should be enough for isolated
convective initiation during the mid to late afternoon. Marginally
severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats.

Further west into the northern High Plains, scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop during the overnight period, ahead of a
mid-level trough in the northwestern U.S. Although a relatively dry
airmass will be in place, low to mid-level lapse rates will be
steep, and could be enough for a marginal wind-damage threat.

..Broyles/Moore.. 06/21/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 211238
SWODY1
SPC AC 211236

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MICHIGAN AS WELL AS NORTHERN NEW YORK...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe wind gusts and hail
will be possible today from Michigan into the Lower Great Lakes
region. Isolated severe storms could also occur across the northern
High Plains and Middle Missouri Valley.

...Great Lakes...
Outflow and remnant convection from last night's severe MCS over the
northern Plains and Upper Midwest is currently moving over Upper MI
and northern MI, while the vorticity maximum is moving through far
northwestern Ontario. General expectation is for the vorticity
maximum to continue eastward through central Ontario and southern
Quebec, with some ascent associated with this system glancing the
Lower Great Lakes region tonight. The low-level jet is expected to
persist, helping to maintain an isolated severe potential with the
activity ongoing on the Upper Great Lakes region for the next few
hours. There is some chance the reintensification occurs along the
outflow later this morning across Lower MI where daytime heating
will contribute to strengthening buoyancy. A Slight Risk was
maintain for this scenario, although warm low/mid-level temperatures
and resultant capping cast doubt to its viability.

Farther east across the Lower Great Lakes region, a few late
afternoon storms are possible as the convection currently over Lower
MI reaches the region. Limited buoyancy should keep any severe
threat with these storm isolated. Additionally, as previously
mentioned, some ascent should glance the Lower Great Lakes vicinity
late tonight/early tomorrow. Forecast soundings depict moderately
steep mid-level lapse rates and unidirectional wind profiles
supportive of a few strong to severe storms.

...Eastern MT into Western ND...
A few elevated storms are currently ongoing across eastern MT,
within a region of strong large-scale ascent ahead of an approaching
shortwave trough. These isolated storms will likely persist this
morning, with a few additional storms possible later this afternoon. Instability will be modest, limited in the overall severe potential,
but strong shear will support organization within an updrafts than
can mature. Isolated hail and/or damaging gusts are the primary
severe risk.

...Central NE/SD/ND into the Upper Midwest...
Surface low currently over central SD is expected to drift slowly
eastward throughout the day, with notable low-level moisture
advection across throughout the warm sector east of this low. This
will allow the airmass to recover from the overnight MCS while also contributing to a sharpening warm-frontal zone. Strong to extreme
buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE greater from 3000 to 5000 J/kg) is expected by
this evening along this warm front from the ND/SD border vicinity
eastward through central MN into northern WI. Some low-level
convergence is anticipated in this region, but height rises are
anticipated within the large-scale environment. Additionally, warm
mid-level temperatures (i.e. 16 to 17 deg C at 700 mb) are expected,
capping the airmass to deep convection. Given these factors and the
lack of convection within any of the convection-allow guidance, the
Marginal Risk was removed from the majority of the region. The only
exception was from central NE into southeast SD and far southwest MN
where some late night elevated storms capable of hail are possible.

..Mosier/Leitman.. 06/21/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 211638
SWODY1
SPC AC 211637

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

Valid 211630Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible tonight across New York and New England. Isolated severe
storms will also be possible across portions of the Greak Lakes, the
northern High Plains and Middle Missouri Valley.

...Great Lakes...
Strong/intermittently severe thunderstorms continue across the
northern Lower Peninsula of Michigan this morning, associated with
the long-lived severe MCS that moved across the northern
Plains/upper Midwest Friday afternoon and night. Although the
immediate downstream environment is only slowly warming due to the
presence of mid/high-level clouds, some slow destabilization is
occurring. This will maintain at least some continued risk for a
strong/severe storm through early afternoon across northern Lower MI
and adjacent waters of Lake Huron.

Across the MI Upper Peninsula, a warm front is expected to sharpen
across this area, along with rising heights in the wake of the convectively-augmented vorticity maximum now moving through southern
Ontario. Heating of a very moist boundary layer will result in
strong to extreme instability (MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg),
however the presence of a pronounced cap should suppress storms
during the afternoon. As a modest low-level jet strengthens this
evening, isolated elevated severe storms will be possible on the
immediate cool side of the front, within an environment supportive
of organized storms including supercells. Large hail and damaging
winds will be possible.

...NY into Western New England...
Thunderstorms moving across Lake Huron/southwestern Ontario at 16z
will continue east, and most morning CAM guidance suggests storms
will remain west of western NY. Of greater concern will be the
potential for storms to move into northern NY/western New England
late tonight ahead of a southeast-moving cold front, where modest destabilization and strong deep-layer shear will support storm
organization. Morning hi-res guidance supports a loosely organized
linear structure, and perhaps supercells with an attendant risk for
strong winds and severe hail late tonight. The Level 2/Slight Risk
has been expanded east into northern VT based on this expectation.

...Eastern MT into Western ND...
Isolated thunderstorms have weakened over eastern MT this morning,
with additional isolated redevelopment possible this afternoon and
tonight as ascent associated with minor perturbations within
southwest mid-level flow moves across the area. Modest instability
and strong deep-layer shear will support updraft organization and a
risk for severe hail and/or damaging gusts.

...Central NE/SD/ND into the Upper Midwest...
Surface low currently over central SD is expected to move little
this afternoon, with low-level moisture advection throughout the
warm sector east of this low. Air mass recovery/modification
following the overnight MCS is expected, and this will contribute to
a sharpening warm-frontal zone. Strong to extreme buoyancy (i.e.
MLCAPE greater from 3000 to 5000 J/kg) is expected by this evening
along this warm front from the ND/SD border vicinity eastward
through central MN into northern WI. Some low-level convergence is
anticipated in this region, but height rises will occur within the
large-scale environment. Additionally, warm mid-level temperatures
(16 to 17 deg C at 700 mb) are expected, capping the airmass to deep
convection this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorm development will be
possible mainly this evening as a low-level jet strengthens, with a
risk for severe wind and isolated hail.

..Bunting/Jewell.. 06/21/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 211959
SWODY1
SPC AC 211958

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

Valid 212000Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN NEW YORK...VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible tonight across New York and New England. Isolated severe
storms will also be possible across portions of the Great Lakes, the
northern High Plains and Middle Missouri Valley.

...20z Update...
Minimal changes were made to the prior valid outlook. Thus far,
strong convection across the Great Lakes region has remained on the
Canadian side of the border. Continued heating and weak mid-level
ascent overspreading a trailing composite front/lake breeze boundary
may eventually support scattered storm development over the UP of
Michigan this afternoon/evening. Isolated damaging gusts and some
hail are possible with moderate CAPE and vertical shear. These
storms should grow upscale across the lakes and through southern
Ontario, reaching western New England late tonight as an MCS. This
MCS may pose a risk for damaging gusts late tonight. Have adjusted
the eastern edge of the Slight and Marginal Risk areas for the
latest hi-res guidance.

Otherwise the outlook remains unchanged, see the previous
discussion.

..Lyons.. 06/21/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025/

...Great Lakes...
Strong/intermittently severe thunderstorms continue across the
northern Lower Peninsula of Michigan this morning, associated with
the long-lived severe MCS that moved across the northern
Plains/upper Midwest Friday afternoon and night. Although the
immediate downstream environment is only slowly warming due to the
presence of mid/high-level clouds, some slow destabilization is
occurring. This will maintain at least some continued risk for a
strong/severe storm through early afternoon across northern Lower MI
and adjacent waters of Lake Huron.

Across the MI Upper Peninsula, a warm front is expected to sharpen
across this area, along with rising heights in the wake of the convectively-augmented vorticity maximum now moving through southern
Ontario. Heating of a very moist boundary layer will result in
strong to extreme instability (MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg),
however the presence of a pronounced cap should suppress storms
during the afternoon. As a modest low-level jet strengthens this
evening, isolated elevated severe storms will be possible on the
immediate cool side of the front, within an environment supportive
of organized storms including supercells. Large hail and damaging
winds will be possible.

...NY into Western New England...
Thunderstorms moving across Lake Huron/southwestern Ontario at 16z
will continue east, and most morning CAM guidance suggests storms
will remain west of western NY. Of greater concern will be the
potential for storms to move into northern NY/western New England
late tonight ahead of a southeast-moving cold front, where modest destabilization and strong deep-layer shear will support storm
organization. Morning hi-res guidance supports a loosely organized
linear structure, and perhaps supercells with an attendant risk for
strong winds and severe hail late tonight. The Level 2/Slight Risk
has been expanded east into northern VT based on this expectation.

...Eastern MT into Western ND...
Isolated thunderstorms have weakened over eastern MT this morning,
with additional isolated redevelopment possible this afternoon and
tonight as ascent associated with minor perturbations within
southwest mid-level flow moves across the area. Modest instability
and strong deep-layer shear will support updraft organization and a
risk for severe hail and/or damaging gusts.

...Central NE/SD/ND into the Upper Midwest...
Surface low currently over central SD is expected to move little
this afternoon, with low-level moisture advection throughout the
warm sector east of this low. Air mass recovery/modification
following the overnight MCS is expected, and this will contribute to
a sharpening warm-frontal zone. Strong to extreme buoyancy (i.e.
MLCAPE greater from 3000 to 5000 J/kg) is expected by this evening
along this warm front from the ND/SD border vicinity eastward
through central MN into northern WI. Some low-level convergence is
anticipated in this region, but height rises will occur within the
large-scale environment. Additionally, warm mid-level temperatures
(16 to 17 deg C at 700 mb) are expected, capping the airmass to deep
convection this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorm development will be
possible mainly this evening as a low-level jet strengthens, with a
risk for severe wind and isolated hail.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 220103
SWODY1
SPC AC 220101

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0801 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

Valid 220100Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible tonight across New York and New England. Isolated severe
storms will also be possible across parts of the Great Lakes and the
central to northern Plains.

...Northeast/New York/Great Lakes...
Latest water vapor imagery has a belt of strong anticyclonic flow
located from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes and
Northeast. A ridge-riding mid-level shortwave trough is located over
Ontario. At the surface, a moist airmass is in place from New York
into western New England, where surface dewpoints are in the lower
to mid 60s F. The low-level moisture will contribute to continued destabilization across the region, in the form of elevated
instability, this evening into tonight. As the shortwave trough
moves southeastward toward the Northeast, low-level flow will
markedly strengthen. In response, convective coverage is expected to
increase, and a line of thunderstorms appears likely to develop late
this evening. This line is forecast to move southeastward across New
York and western New England from late evening into the overnight
period.

Overnight, RAP forecast soundings ahead of the line in northern New
York have a low-level temperature inversion, with MUCAPE in the 1500
to 2000 J/kg range. Effective shear is forecast to be around 40
knots. This should be favorable for a severe threat. Although much
of the line could be elevated, isolated large hail and severe gusts
will still be possible, mainly with the more intense component of
the line. The line is expected to move through the western New
England and the Hudson River Valley late tonight, approaching
southern New England toward 12Z.

...Central Plains...
Southwest mid-level flow is in place across much of the central
Plains early this evening. At the surface, a moist airmass is
located over much of the High Plains, with surface dewpoints mostly
in the 60s F. In response to low-level warm advection, isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will likely develop along the western edge
of this moist airmass. This convection is expected to move
northeastward across Nebraska and southeastern South Dakota this
evening. In addition to moderate instability, mid-level lapse rates
are very steep. This, combined with moderate deep-layer shear, will
likely support a marginal severe threat. Hail and isolated severe
gusts will be possible.

...Northern High Plains...
A mid-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, will move
northeastward into the northern High Plains tonight. Ahead of the
trough, a post-frontal airmass is in place with the western edge of
a moist airmass located over the western Dakotas. As large-scale
ascent increases across the northern High Plains later tonight,
scattered thunderstorm development is expected. These storms will
move northeastward across eastern Montana and western North Dakota,
mainly after midnight. Weak to moderate instability, combined with
steep lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear should support a
marginal severe threat. Hail and a few severe gusts will be
possible.

..Broyles.. 06/22/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 220601
SWODY1
SPC AC 220600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE GREAT PLAINS...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop today
across the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley, some of
which could have large hail, damaging wind gusts and an isolated
tornado threat. Storms associated with severe gusts and hail may
also develop across parts of the Northeast, and in the southern and
central Plains.

...Great Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley...
At mid-levels, southwest flow will be in place today across the
Great Plains, as a trough moves into the northern Rockies. At the
surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the northern
Plains, as a low moves from the eastern Dakotas into northwest
Minnesota. The boundary will be the focus for convective
development. To the east of the front, a very moist airmass will be
in place with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s F from
the central Plains northeastward into upper Mississippi Valley.
Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across much of
the region this afternoon. This, coupled with moderate deep-layer
shear, will be favorable for severe thunderstorm development.

Thunderstorms are expected to first develop across parts of North
Dakota and northwest Minnesota this morning. This activity could be
associated with large hail and isolated severe gusts. As surface
temperatures warm and low-level convergence increases near the
boundary early this afternoon, scattered storms are expected to
develop across parts of the central and northern Plains. These
storms will gradually grow upscale into a organized convective
cluster, moving through eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota.
RAP forecast soundings near Sioux Falls, SD at 21Z have MLCAPE in
the 3000 to 3500 J/kg range with 25 to 30 knots of 0-6 km shear. In
addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 9 C/km.
This should be favorable for supercells and/or intense multicells
capable of producing large hail and wind damage. Supercells that
track through the more unstable air to the east of the front could
produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter, and have an
isolated tornado threat. If an intense line segment can organize,
then severe gusts above 70 mph will be possible as well.

Further south-southwest into parts of the southern and central High
Plains, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon and evening. Surface dewpoints in the 60s F will
contribute to moderate instability. This, combined with very steep
lapse rates from the surface to 700 mb, will likely support a
marginal severe threat. Hail and a few severe gusts will be the
primary threats.

...Northeast...
A line or cluster of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the
Northeast at the start of the period. The outflow boundary
associated with this convection is expected to move south and
southwestward into the central Appalachians of Pennsylvania and New
York this morning. Moisture advection will result in a steady
increase in surface dewpoints across much of the region today, with
surface dewpoints increasing into the lower 70s F. As surface
temperatures warm, an axis of strong destabilization is expected to
take shape around midday. Thunderstorms that can develop near the
boundary will move southeastward along the axis of strong
instability. RAP forecast soundings from 18Z to 21Z near the
boundary have MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse
rates of 7 C/km and moderate deep-layer shear. This should support a
threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts during the afternoon.

..Broyles/Moore.. 06/22/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 221241
SWODY1
SPC AC 221239

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE PLAINS...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop today
across the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley, some of
which could produce large hail, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes.
Storms associated with severe gusts and hail may also develop across
parts of the Northeast, and in the southern and central Plains.

...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
Widely scattered elevated thunderstorms are currently moving
northeastward across the eastern Dakotas. A few stronger storms are
embedded within these clusters and overall trends suggest increasing
storm coverage is possible as these storms move into more of eastern
ND and northwest/west-central MN. The airmass here is characterized
by very steep mid-level lapse rates (around 8 to 8.5 deg C per km
from 700 to 500 mb per recent mesoanalysis) and moderate deep-layer
vertical shear. These environmental conditions support the potential
for large hail within any more organized updrafts throughout the
morning. See MCD #1400 for additional details.

The strength and extent of these early day storms could impact
thunderstorm chances later. However, the general expectation
supported by all the guidance is that the airmass should easily
recover as the surface low currently over the western SD/NE border
vicinity shifts northeastward across SD and moderate/strong
southerly surface winds persist through the warm sector. By 21Z, the
surface low will likely be over northeast SD with a cold front
extending north-northeastward to a secondary low over northern MN.
Warm mid-level temperatures will cap the airmass until after 21Z,
when isolated development appears possible across northern MN.
Another scenario is for early afternoon initiation behind the front
across ND, supported by a weak vorticity maximum moving out of
western SD. These storms could then gradually move northeastward
into the more unstable airmass farther east. In either case, any
warm-sector development would likely be supercellular and capable of
all severe hazards, including very large hail up to 2" in diameter,
gusts to 75 mph, and tornadoes. The warm front is currently expected
to be just north of the international border, keeping the best
tornado environment in Canada. Upscale growth into a
forward-progressing MCS is possible, but there is currently low
confidence in the overall storm evolution.

Additional development is also possible farther south from
central/eastern NE into eastern SD this evening. This activity
should initially be elevated with hail as the primary risk. A
general northeastward motion is anticipated and there is some chance
for this activity to begin interacting with the frontal zone. If
that occurs, some strong gusts are also possible throughout the
evening.

Lastly, late afternoon thunderstorm development appears probable
across far eastern WY, the NE Panhandle, and southwest SD. High
storm bases coupled with modest buoyancy, deep mixing, and steep
low-level lapse rates will support the potential for strong outflow
with this activity.

...Central/Southern High Plains...
Low-level moisture advection and related airmass destabilization
coupled with low-level convergence along the lee trough is expected
to result in widespread convective initiation from eastern
CO/western KS through eastern NM and into far west TX. Vertical
shear will be modest, likely resulting in a predominantly
outflow-dominant storm structure and the potential for damaging wind
gusts. Some isolated hail is possible as well.

...Northeast...
Remnants of an overnight MCS currently cover much of the Northeast,
with the strongest storms confined to just north of the outflow
along its western periphery. Given the extensive precipitation
ongoing, this outflow will likely shift gradually
south-southwestward throughout the morning. Warm-air advection along
this boundary will weaken throughout the day as upper ridging builds
northward into the region. Even so, low-level convergence along this
boundary will likely continue, and there is some chance for
thunderstorms to persist along this boundary as well. Steepening
mid-level lapse rates and resulting strong buoyancy will support a
conditional risk for severe thunderstorms during the
afternoon/evening in the vicinity of this boundary. Large hail and
damaging gusts are the primary risk with any storms that do develop.

..Mosier/Dean.. 06/22/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 221637
SWODY1
SPC AC 221636

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Valid 221630Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop today
across the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley, some of
which could produce large hail, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes.
Storms associated with severe gusts and hail may also develop across
parts of the Northeast, and in the southern and central Plains.

...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
A warm front extends northeast from a surface low over northern SD
across northern MN and east across the northern Great Lakes. This
warm front should lift north through the day, while a cold front
extends southwest of the surface low into northeast CO.
Thunderstorms over eastern ND/northwest MN have produced near severe
gusts as they continue to move northeast towards the international
border.

Redevelopment of thunderstorms is anticipated towards late afternoon
or early evening across eastern ND/western MN southward into eastern
SD as a weak mid-level perturbation lifts northeast across the area, contributing large-scale ascent and weakening the capping inversion.
These storms will move east/northeast within a strongly unstable air
mass and include a mix of supercell and cluster modes with a risk
for large to very large hail initially, and transition into an
increasing wind threat with time. Tornado potential appears to be
greatest over northern MN, where low-level SRH will be maximized.

The potential for elevated, post-frontal thunderstorm development
across the NE Panhandle will exist later this afternoon/evening,
with storms moving east and posing a risk initially for severe hail.
The severe wind potential will increase with eastward extent as
storms congeal and tap greater surface instability farther east.

...Central/Southern High Plains...
Low-level moisture advection and related airmass destabilization
coupled with low-level convergence along the lee trough is expected
to result in thunderstorm development from eastern CO/western KS
through eastern NM and into far west TX. Vertical shear will be
modest, likely resulting in predominantly outflow-dominant storm
structures and the potential for damaging wind gusts. Some isolated
hail is also possible with the strongest/more persistent updrafts.

...Northeast...
Overall storm intensity along the western flank of outflow from the
long-lived MCS remains sub severe, and have narrowed the Marginal
and Slight Risk areas to along and immediately southwest of the
convective line. Substantial diurnal heating of a very moist air
mass, and 30-40 kts of effective shear, may support some severe
potential as storms move generally southward along the eastern
periphery of the mid-level ridge. Isolated to widely scattered
strong/severe wind gusts will be possible, in addition to isolated
hail reports given seasonably steep mid-level lapse rates.

..Bunting/Squitieri.. 06/22/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 222002
SWODY1
SPC AC 222000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Valid 222000Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDWEST
TO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across the
northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley, some of which could
produce large hail, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. Storms
associated with severe gusts and hail may also develop across parts
of the southern and central Plains, and Northeast.

...20z Update Central/Northern Plains...
Current surface and satellite observations show strong heating
occurring from far eastern WY, into the NE panhandle within a
post-frontal upslope flow regime. As ascent from the primary trough
across the northern Rockies moves overhead, storm initiation appears
likely this afternoon. Weak destabilization, with moderate
deep-layer shear suggests a few supercells are likely with hail and
damaging winds the primary risk. A brief tornado is also possible
with the stronger surface-based supercells given strong low-level
veering. The MRGL and SLGT boundaries have been adjusted westward to
better align with expected storm initiation along the terrain and
stalled front. See MCD#1403 for additional short-term info.

To the north across eastern SD/ND and MN, the severe risk continues
largely as expected. Strong heating ahead of a surface low and warm
front will support scattered storm development this afternoon and
evening. Deep-layer shear will support supercells and clusters
capable of all severe hazards. Storms will continue eastward this
evening and overnight across northern MN with damaging gusts and
hail likely.

...Northeast...
In the wake of an earlier MCS, strong heating remains evident along
a remnant outflow boundary from eastern PA into southwestern NY
state. However, mid-level height rises and subsidence are evident in
visible/WV imagery and will continue to suppress convective
development over much of the region. An isolated storm or two
remains possible along the boundary through late this afternoon, but
more widespread convective coverage is unlikely. Should storms form,
a strong/severe wind gusts will be possible, in addition to sporadic
hail, given seasonably large buoyancy and steep mid-level lapse
rates. With decreased confidence in storm development/coverage, have
opted to remove the SLGT risk and continue with 5% wind/hail
probabilities.

..Lyons.. 06/22/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025/

...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
A warm front extends northeast from a surface low over northern SD
across northern MN and east across the northern Great Lakes. This
warm front should lift north through the day, while a cold front
extends southwest of the surface low into northeast CO.
Thunderstorms over eastern ND/northwest MN have produced near severe
gusts as they continue to move northeast towards the international
border.

Redevelopment of thunderstorms is anticipated towards late afternoon
or early evening across eastern ND/western MN southward into eastern
SD as a weak mid-level perturbation lifts northeast across the area, contributing large-scale ascent and weakening the capping inversion.
These storms will move east/northeast within a strongly unstable air
mass and include a mix of supercell and cluster modes with a risk
for large to very large hail initially, and transition into an
increasing wind threat with time. Tornado potential appears to be
greatest over northern MN, where low-level SRH will be maximized.

The potential for elevated, post-frontal thunderstorm development
across the NE Panhandle will exist later this afternoon/evening,
with storms moving east and posing a risk initially for severe hail.
The severe wind potential will increase with eastward extent as
storms congeal and tap greater surface instability farther east.

...Central/Southern High Plains...
Low-level moisture advection and related airmass destabilization
coupled with low-level convergence along the lee trough is expected
to result in thunderstorm development from eastern CO/western KS
through eastern NM and into far west TX. Vertical shear will be
modest, likely resulting in predominantly outflow-dominant storm
structures and the potential for damaging wind gusts. Some isolated
hail is also possible with the strongest/more persistent updrafts.

...Northeast...
Overall storm intensity along the western flank of outflow from the
long-lived MCS remains sub severe, and have narrowed the Marginal
and Slight Risk areas to along and immediately southwest of the
convective line. Substantial diurnal heating of a very moist air
mass, and 30-40 kts of effective shear, may support some severe
potential as storms move generally southward along the eastern
periphery of the mid-level ridge. Isolated to widely scattered
strong/severe wind gusts will be possible, in addition to isolated
hail reports given seasonably steep mid-level lapse rates.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 230038
SWODY1
SPC AC 230036

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Valid 230100Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue this evening
across parts of the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley,
some of which could produce large hail, damaging wind gusts and
tornadoes. Storms associated with marginally severe gusts and hail
will also be likely across parts of the southern and central Plains.

...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley...
A mid-level trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the
northern Rockies, with southwest flow located over the northern
Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a 997 mb low is
located in far southeast North Dakota with a cold front extending
southwestward from the low into eastern South Dakota and central
Nebraska. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are in the 70s F
across the upper Mississippi Valley, with mostly 60s F located over
parts of the mid Missouri Valley and central Plains. The RAP has
moderate to strong instability analyzed ahead the front, with the
highest instability in north-central Minnesota where MLCAPE is
estimated to be near 4000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing
near the front in north-central Nebraska, and in the post-frontal
airmass in western Nebraska. This activity is being supported by
subtle shortwave trough moving through the central High Plains. As
low-level flow ramps up this evening, storm coverage is expected to
gradually increase, with the storms moving northeastward into
southern and eastern South Dakota later this evening. Additional
storms appear likely to develop over parts of Minnesota.

Near the front from eastern South Dakota into northwest Minnesota,
RAP forecast soundings suggest that 0-6 km shear will be mostly
between 30 and 40 knots this evening. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse
rates will be near 8 C/km. This environment should support
supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in
diameter will be possible, mainly over west-central and northern
Minnesota where the strongest instability is analyzed. Some
short-term models also show potential for short intense line
segments. If a line can become organized and remain persistent, the
potential for severe gusts would be pronounced, with wind gusts
above 70 mph possible. A tornado threat will also be likely with
supercells, and bowing line segments.

...Southern and Central High Plains...
Southwest mid-level flow is evident on water vapor imagery over the
southern and central High Plains. At the surface, a 998 mb low is
located in far southwest Nebraska with a moist airmass located to
the south and southeast of the low across much of the central and
southern High Plains. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing from
eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. The storms are being
supported by a subtle shortwave trough evident on water vapor
imagery. The storms will continue to move eastward into the stronger instability this evening. The Amarillo 00Z sounding has very steep
low to mid-level lapse rates, with surface dewpoints in the 60s and
about 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. This should support a threat for isolated
severe gusts this evening. Hail will also be possible with the
stronger cores. The severe threat could expand north-northeastward
into western Kansas as low-level flow increases this evening.

..Broyles.. 06/23/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 230542
SWODY1
SPC AC 230540

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MID MISSOURI VALLEY...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Storms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible
today from the southern and central Plains northeastward into the
Great Lakes.

...Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Upper Mississippi Valley/Great
Lakes...
At mid-levels, an anticyclone will remain over much of the eastern
U.S. today, as southwesterly flow remains over the north-central
states. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into
the upper Mississippi and mid Missouri Valleys extending
southwestward into the central Plains. Ahead of the front, surface
dewpoints in the lower 70s F will contribute to moderate
destabilization during the day. As low-level convergence increases
along the front, somewhat widely spaced convection is expected to
initiate. From this convection, several clusters of storms are
expected to move eastward toward an axis of instability. Along and
near the instability axis from northeast Kansas into southern
Wisconsin, deep-layer shear is expected to be modest. However,
low-level lapse rates will become steep in the afternoon, which
could support a potential for isolated severe wind gusts. The severe
threat is expected to be strongly diurnal, with the greatest threat
occurring in the late afternoon and early evening.

...Southern and Central High Plains...
Southwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place today across much
of the south-central U.S. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the central High Plains. Ahead of the front,
surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F. As surface temperatures warm
during the day, an axis of moderate instability will develop ahead
of the front from eastern New Mexico into southwest Kansas. Although
deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak along this
corridor, the moderate instability combined with steep low to
mid-level lapse rates may be enough for a marginal wind-damage
threat.

...Northern Maine...
At mid-levels, northwest flow will be in place today across northern
New England, where heights will rise substantially. At the surface,
a moist airmass will be located across much of the Northeast, where
surface dewpoints will be mostly from the mid 60s to the lower 70S
F. As surface temperatures warm today, isolated convection
initiation may occur along an axis of low-level convergence in
northern Maine. In addition to the instability, moderate deep-layer
shear will be in place. This could support a marginal wind-damage
threat during the early to mid afternoon.

..Broyles/Moore.. 06/23/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 231223
SWODY1
SPC AC 231221

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0721 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Storms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible
today from the southern and central Plains northeastward into the
Great Lakes.

...Central Plains into the Upper MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes... Early-morning satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough progressing
through ND and southern SK/MB. Surface analysis places the low
associated with this shortwave over far northwestern ON, with an
attendant cold front arcing from this low through the MN arrowhead
and back through south-central MN, northwest IA,
eastern/south-central NE to another low in northwest KS. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing along this frontal zone from northeast NE
into southern MN.

Expectation is for the shortwave trough to continue northeastward
through far northwest ON throughout the day, with the primary
surface low also tracking northeastward just ahead of its parent
shortwave. Gradual eastward/southeastward progress of the cold front
is anticipated, although its forward progression will slow with
time, particularly from the Mid MO Valley southwestward into the
southern High Plains. A warm and moist airmass exists ahead of this
front, with temperatures expected to reach the mid 80s to low 90s
amid dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. These conditions will
result in strong buoyancy and little to no convective inhibition
along much of the front by 21Z.

Large-scale forcing for ascent will be negligible, but persist
low-level convergence should be enough to initiate deep convection,
with numerous to widespread thunderstorms anticipated. The stronger
deep-layer vertical shear will lag behind the front across much of
the region, but steep low-level lapse rates and ample moisture
should still result in sporadic damaging gusts. There will be better
overlap between the shear and buoyancy from WI into MI, and there is
some chance for one or more forward-propagating line segments in
this area. Some isolated hail is possible within the more robust
early-stage storms. Storm mergers could also result in updrafts
briefly becoming strong enough to produce hail.

...Southern and Central High Plains...
Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon
amid persistent low-level convergence within the warm, moist, and
weakly sheared airmass over the region. The lack of stronger shear
will result in largely outflow-dominant storm structures. Given the
high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates, damaging gusts are
possible with the stronger storms.

...Northern ME...
A convectively augmented vorticity maximum currently over
northeastern ON is forecast progress eastward through southern QC
and into the Canadian Maritimes during the period. Showers and
thunderstorms will accompany this vorticity max, with a few stronger
storms potentially glancing northern ME this evening. Moderately low
to mid-level westerly flow will support the threat for some damaging
gusts as these storms move through the region.

...Southeast...
Scattered to numerous diurnally driven thunderstorm are expected
across the region today. Shear will be weak, with a multicellular
pulse mode anticipated. Given the ample moisture and likelihood of
storm interactions, a few strong, water-loaded downbursts are
possible. Limited coverage precludes the need for any severe
probabilities.

..Mosier/Leitman.. 06/23/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 231624
SWODY1
SPC AC 231622

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Valid 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE EVENING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Storms with occasional damaging outflow gusts and marginally severe
hail will be possible today from the southern and central Plains
northeastward into the Great Lakes.

...Upper Great Lakes to the Plains this afternoon/evening...
A surface cold front will make slow southeastward progress from WI
to IA and KS, in the wake of a primary shortwave trough moving over
western ON. Surface heating is ongoing ahead of the front, where boundary-layer dewpoints range from the upper 60s to lower 70s
beneath midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km, which will drive MLCAPE of
2000-3000 J/kg. Convective inhibition will likewise weaken by
early-mid afternoon, when thunderstorm development is likely along
the front and differential heating zone in the SLGT risk corridor.
Deep-layer flow will be a little stronger toward WI in closer
proximity to the main belt of westerlies, where a mix clusters/line
segments and transient supercell structures will be possible. The
primary severe threat will be damaging outflow winds (60-70 mph)
from roughly 20z-03z, though isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in
diameter may also occur with the strongest storms.

More loosely organized storm clusters are expected this afternoon
through this evening into the southern High Plains, where
thermodynamic profiles will favor isolated severe downbursts.

...Northern Maine later this evening...
Around the northern periphery of a closed midlevel high over the
Appalachians, a series of embedded speed maxima will move over ON/QC
through tonight. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s beneath
midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km, in combination with daytime
heating, will boost MLCAPE to 1500-2000 J/kg with minimal convective
inhibition by late afternoon. Thunderstorm development is expected
upstream across QC in association with an embedded speed max/surface
wave, and this convection will approach northern ME by late
evening/early tonight. Though buoyancy will slowly weaken with the
loss of daytime heating, low-level hodograph curvature and
deep-layer westerly shear should be sufficient for an organized
storm cluster to reach ME before weakening overnight. Isolated
damaging winds will be the main threat with these storms.

..Thompson/Squitieri.. 06/23/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 231956
SWODY1
SPC AC 231954

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Valid 232000Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE EVENING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Storms with occasional damaging outflow gusts and marginally severe
hail will be possible today from the southern and central Plains
northeastward into the Great Lakes.

...20z Update...
Marginal hail and tornado probabilities were introduced across
western Maine with this update. CAM guidance suggests supercells
moving out of southern Quebec may track into western Maine. The
moist and unstable environment across this region would be
supportive of hail, wind, and perhaps a tornado as 850 mb flow
increases through the evening.

Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with no updates needed. See
previous discussion for more information.

..Thornton.. 06/23/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025/

...Upper Great Lakes to the Plains this afternoon/evening...
A surface cold front will make slow southeastward progress from WI
to IA and KS, in the wake of a primary shortwave trough moving over
western ON. Surface heating is ongoing ahead of the front, where boundary-layer dewpoints range from the upper 60s to lower 70s
beneath midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km, which will drive MLCAPE of
2000-3000 J/kg. Convective inhibition will likewise weaken by
early-mid afternoon, when thunderstorm development is likely along
the front and differential heating zone in the SLGT risk corridor.
Deep-layer flow will be a little stronger toward WI in closer
proximity to the main belt of westerlies, where a mix clusters/line
segments and transient supercell structures will be possible. The
primary severe threat will be damaging outflow winds (60-70 mph)
from roughly 20z-03z, though isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in
diameter may also occur with the strongest storms.

More loosely organized storm clusters are expected this afternoon
through this evening into the southern High Plains, where
thermodynamic profiles will favor isolated severe downbursts.

...Northern Maine later this evening...
Around the northern periphery of a closed midlevel high over the
Appalachians, a series of embedded speed maxima will move over ON/QC
through tonight. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s beneath
midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km, in combination with daytime
heating, will boost MLCAPE to 1500-2000 J/kg with minimal convective
inhibition by late afternoon. Thunderstorm development is expected
upstream across QC in association with an embedded speed max/surface
wave, and this convection will approach northern ME by late
evening/early tonight. Though buoyancy will slowly weaken with the
loss of daytime heating, low-level hodograph curvature and
deep-layer westerly shear should be sufficient for an organized
storm cluster to reach ME before weakening overnight. Isolated
damaging winds will be the main threat with these storms.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 240041
SWODY1
SPC AC 240039

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible this evening from the
southern and central Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes. A
few severe gusts will also be possible in parts of northern Maine.

...Great Lakes/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Lower to Mid Missouri
Valley/ Southern and Central Plains...
A large mid-level anticyclone is in place over much of the eastern
U.S. today, with southwest mid-level flow over the central states.
At the surface, a cold front is located from north-central Kansas
northeastward to southern Wisconsin.. Scattered thunderstorms are
ongoing near the front. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are
mostly in the 70s F, which is contributing to a
southwest-to-northeast corridor of moderate instability. The RAP
currently is estimating MLCAPE along this corridor in the 2000 to
3500 J/kg range. Along the instability axis, RAP forecast soundings
and regional 00Z soundings suggest that 0-3 km lapse rates are in
the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. This should support a potential for
isolated severe wind gusts, associated with the more intense
multicell line segments. The severe threat is expected to persist
for a few more hours.

Further southwest into the southern and central High Plains,
scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. A moist airmass is present
across much of the region, with surface dewpoints generally in the
60s F. The latest RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range in
most areas. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates,
will support a marginal threat for severe gusts early this evening.

...Northern Maine...
On water vapor imagery, flow is west-northwesterly across much of
the Northeast, with a subtle shortwave trough moving through the
flow. Associated with the trough, a line of thunderstorms is ongoing
in southern Quebec. This line will move east-southeastward across
central and northern Maine this evening. Ahead of the line, surface
dewpoints are in the upper 60s and lower 70s F, which is
contributing to weak instability. In addition, RAP forecast
soundings across northern Maine early this evening, have some
directional shear in the low-levels, with 25 to 35 knots of
mid-level flow. This may be enough for a few marginally severe wind
gusts along the leading edge of the line during the early to mid
evening.

..Broyles.. 06/24/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 240535
SWODY1
SPC AC 240533

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Storms associated with very large hail and severe wind gusts will be
likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and
northern High Plains. Marginally severe storms will be possible this
afternoon from part of the central and northern Plains eastward into
the Northeast.

...Central and Northern High Plains...
A mid-level anticyclone will remain in place today across much of
the southeastern third of the nation, as west-northwesterly
mid-level flow continues from the north-central U.S. into the Great
Lakes. At the surface, a post-frontal airmass will be located over
the central and northern High Plains, where surface dewpoints will
be mostly from the mid 50s to the mid 60s F. As surface temperatures
warm during the day, moderate instability will develop across parts
of the region, and scattered convection will initiate in the higher
terrain. These storms will move eastward into the lower elevations
of the High Plains this afternoon.

RAP forecast soundings from eastern Wyoming into northeastern
Colorado at 21Z have 40 to 50 knots of deep-layer shear, with
700-500 mb lapse rates around 8 C/Km. This environment will support
the development of supercells with large hail. Hailstones of greater
than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with supercells that
become particularly intense. In areas where convective coverage is
greatest, the cells could congeal into short line segments capable
of severe gusts. The severe threat should be greatest from late
afternoon to mid evening.

....Central and Northern Plains/Mid to Upper Mississippi
Valley/Lower Great Lakes/Northeast...
The northern edge of a mid-level anticyclone will remain from the
mid Mississippi Valley east-northeastward into the central
Appalachians today. To the north of the anticyclone,
west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place. At the surface,
a front will be positioned from the central Plains
east-northeastward into the lower Great Lakes and Northeast. Near
and to the south of the front, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to
the lower 70s F will contribute to the development of moderate
instability by afternoon. This, along with increasing low-level
convergence near the front, will result in scattered convective
initiation. Several clusters or line segments are expected to
develop and move eastward into the stronger instability. Although
deep-layer shear will remain on the marginal side for organized
storms, low-level lapse rates will become steep in the mid to late
afternoon. This could support a marginal wind-damage threat with the
stronger multicell line segments in areas that heat up the most.

..Broyles/Moore.. 06/24/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 241239
SWODY1
SPC AC 241238

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Storms associated with very large hail and severe wind gusts will be
likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and
northern High Plains. Marginally severe storms will be possible this
afternoon from part of the central and northern Plains eastward into
the Northeast.

...Synopsis...
Early morning satellite imagery shows an expansive upper ridge over
much of the eastern CONUS, and upper troughing across the Great
Basin vicinity. A northern-stream shortwave trough currently over SK
is forecast to progress quickly eastward through MB and ON, leading
to some dampening of the eastern CONUS ridge. Several convectively
augmented vorticity maxima are also expected to move through the
northern and central High Plains ahead of the more substantial
shortwave trough moving across the Great Basin. This evolution will
lead to some dampening of the northwestern periphery of this ridge
as well.

Like the upper pattern, the surface pattern is currently dominated
by eastern CONUS ridging, with an ill-defined frontal zone between
the warm and moist airmass under the ridge and a more continental
airmass across the northern Plains and Upper MS Valley. Recent
surface analysis places a low over western KS with a stationary
boundary extending northeastward from this low to another low over
WI. A more progressive cold front extends northeastward from the WI
low through central ON. The moist airmass (i.e. dewpoints in the
70s) south of this boundary will destabilize with daytime heating,
and scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated amid modest
low-level convergence during the afternoon from the central Plains
through the Great Lakes region into the Northeast. Vertical shear
will be weak, limiting storm strength/organization and contributing
to an outflow-dominant storm mode. Damaging gusts will be possible
with any of the stronger line segments. Greater severe potential is
expected across the northern and central High Plains (discussed
below).

...Northern/Central High Plains...
Post-frontal southeasterly upslope flow is anticipated across the
region today, helping to offset diurnal mixing and keep dewpoints in
the upper 50s/low 60s this afternoon. The increased low-level
moisture and strong heating will foster airmass destabilization by
the early afternoon, with scattered to numerous thunderstorm
expected. Initiation is expected over the higher terrain before then
moving northeastward into the lower elevations. Vertical shear will
be strong enough to support supercells initially capable of
producing large to very large hail. A trend towards more
outflow-dominant structures is anticipated with time, with one or
more line segments capable of strong to severe gusts developing.
This outflow-dominant character is forecast to limit the tornado
threat, but a locally enhanced threat may exist from southeast WY
into the southern NE Panhandle and far northeast CO where the best
overlap between low-level moisture and southeasterly surface winds
is expected.

...Southern Rockies...
Increasing low to mid-level moisture will support numerous to
widespread thunderstorms across the southern Rockies today. Very
shear will be weak, promoting a mostly disorganized multicellular
mode.

..Mosier/Leitman.. 06/24/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 241613
SWODY1
SPC AC 241611

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Valid 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Storms associated with large hail and severe wind gusts will be
likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and
northern High Plains. Marginally severe storms will be possible this
afternoon from part of the central Plains eastward into the
Northeast - and in the mountains of Tennessee, North Carolina, and
southern Virginia.

...High Plains...
Deep east-southeasterly upslope flow is present this morning across
the High Plains of WY/CO. Surface dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s,
coupled with thinning clouds and strong afternoon heating will yield
a corridor of moderate CAPE across much of eastern WY and northeast/east-central CO. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate
off the higher terrain by early afternoon and spread northeastward
with risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts for several hours.

...Lower MI/Northern IN/OH...
A weak surface cold front extends across southern Lower MI today,
with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s to the south of the boundary.
This air mass is heating rapidly and should become very unstable,
leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Hot surface
temperatures and steep low-level lapse rates will promote
gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells.

...TN/NC/VA Mountains...
A hot and humid surface air mass is in place today over the
mountains of east TN, western NC, and southern VA. This should lead
to widely scattered thunderstorm development. Winds aloft are weak,
but steep low-mid level lapse rates, ample dry air aloft, and
considerable CAPE will promote strong downdrafts and small hail in
the strongest cells.

..Hart/Squitieri.. 06/24/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 241959
SWODY1
SPC AC 241957

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SEPARATELY OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Large hail and severe wind gusts are likely this afternoon and
evening in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Damaging
wind gusts are also expected across parts of northern New York into
Vermont this afternoon.

...20Z Update...
The primary change with this update was the addition of a Slight
Risk (driven by 15-percent wind probabilities) over parts of
northern NY into northern VT. Here, temperatures have warmed into
the upper 80s/lower 90s amid upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints --
contributing to moderate-strong surface-based instability. As storms
continue tracking/developing eastward into northern NY, around 40 kt
of deep-layer shear accompanying a glancing midlevel speed maximum
should promote several small/loosely organized storm clusters
capable of producing damaging wind gusts through this afternoon. For
details on the severe risk in the central High Plains, reference
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458.

..Weinman.. 06/24/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025/

...High Plains...
Deep east-southeasterly upslope flow is present this morning across
the High Plains of WY/CO. Surface dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s,
coupled with thinning clouds and strong afternoon heating will yield
a corridor of moderate CAPE across much of eastern WY and northeast/east-central CO. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate
off the higher terrain by early afternoon and spread northeastward
with risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts for several hours.

...Lower MI/Northern IN/OH...
A weak surface cold front extends across southern Lower MI today,
with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s to the south of the boundary.
This air mass is heating rapidly and should become very unstable,
leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Hot surface
temperatures and steep low-level lapse rates will promote
gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells.

...TN/NC/VA Mountains...
A hot and humid surface air mass is in place today over the
mountains of east TN, western NC, and southern VA. This should lead
to widely scattered thunderstorm development. Winds aloft are weak,
but steep low-mid level lapse rates, ample dry air aloft, and
considerable CAPE will promote strong downdrafts and small hail in
the strongest cells.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 250059
SWODY1
SPC AC 250057

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND IN PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible this evening in
parts of the central and northern High Plains. Isolated damaging
wind gusts will also be possible across parts of northern New York
into Vermont and New Hampshire early this evening.

...Central and Northern High Plains...
According to water vapor imagery, mid-level anticyclonic
southwesterly flow is currently present across much of the
north-central U.S. At the surface, a 1012 mb low is analyzed over
far eastern Colorado, with an upslope flow regime located over much
of the central and northern High Plains. Surface dewpoints within
the post-frontal airmass are mostly in the 60s F, which is
contributing to moderate instability over much of the region.
Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along the western edge of the
moist airmass from eastern Colorado into southwest Nebraska.
Isolated storms are ongoing near the instability axis in central
Wyoming. As low-level flow increases early this evening, convective
coverage will likely be maintained as the storms move northeastward
into the lower elevations.

The most favorable environment for supercells appears to be in
central Wyoming. RAP forecast to the northwest of Casper, WY early
this evening have 0-6 km shear around 60 knots with 700-500 mb lapse
rates near 8.5 C/km. This may support a threat for isolated large
hail. Further to the southeast into parts of northeast Colorado and
southwest Nebraska, a cluster of strong to severe storms is ongoing.
Although a supercell will be possible within this cluster, the more
common storm type should be multicellular. This storm mode will
favorable severe gusts as the primary threat, especially with short
intense line segments.

Further to the east across parts of the central Plains, lower
Missouri Valley and southern Great Lakes, scattered thunderstorms
are ongoing near a front. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and
lower 70s F, combined with moderate instability and steep low-level
lapse rates, may be enough for marginally severe gusts early this
evening.

...Northern New York/Vermont, New Hampshire...
Mid-level westerly flow is currently located over much of the
Northeast. At the surface, a moist airmass is present across much of
the region with surface dewpoints mostly in the upper 60s to lower
70s F. An axis of moderate instability is analyzed from central New
York into western New England. To the north of the instability axis,
isolated to scattered storms are ongoing. In the vicinity of the
ongoing convection, the RAP has 20 to 25 knots of low-level flow,
0-3 km lapse rates near 7.5 C/km and moderate deep-layer shear. This
may be enough for severe wind gusts early this evening, associated
with the stronger multicells.

..Broyles.. 06/25/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 250551
SWODY1
SPC AC 250550

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS...SOUTHEAST...AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe wind gusts are possible from parts of the Carolinas into the
Southeast, with widely scattered strong to severe storms possible
from the northern High Plains eastward to the Mid Atlantic.

...Carolinas/Southeast...
A mid-level anticyclone will remain over the southeastern U.S.
today. Beneath this large area of high pressure, a very moist
airmass will be in place from the southern and central Appalachians
to the Eastern Seaboard. Surface dewpoints will be mostly from the
upper 60s to the mid 70s F. As surface temperatures warm today,
moderate to strong instability is expected over much of this moist
airmass. Model forecasts suggest that low-level convergence will
lead to convective development over far southern Virginia and
northern North Carolina around midday. This convection is expected
to increase in coverage, moving south to southwestward across the
Carolinas. A line is expected to gradually organize during the
afternoon.

At 21Z, RAP forecast soundings along the instability axis in the
Carolinas, suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg
range, and that a substantial amount of DCAPE will exist. 0-3 km
lapse rates are forecast to reach the 8 to 8.5 C/km range. In
addition, forecast soundings have inverted-V profiles, with 0-6 km
shear in the 15 to 20 knot range. This should be favorable for
damaging wind gusts, associated with pulse storms and multicells. If
a line segment can organize ahead of a cold pool, then the
wind-damage potential could cover a somewhat large area from the
Carolinas southwestward into the eastern Gulf Coast states.

...Central Plains/Mid Missouri and Mid to Upper Mississippi
Valleys...
Southwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place today from the
central Plains into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. At the
surface, a low is forecast to develop over the central Plains. To
the east of the low, low-level moisture is forecast to be maximized,
with surface dewpoints ranging from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F
across most of the mid Missouri Valley. As surface temperatures warm
during the day, scattered convective initiation is expected from
western and central Nebraska east-northeastward into Iowa, southern
Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Along this corridor, a low-level
jet will strengthen during the late afternoon and early evening.
This, combined with 30 to 35 knots of deep-layer shear, moderate
instability and steep low-level lapse rates will be favorable for a
severe threat. Damaging wind gusts and hail will be possible with
organized multicell line segments.

...Central and Northern High Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move through the
southern and central Rockies today. Ahead of the trough, a moist and
unstable airmass will be in place by afternoon from eastern Colorado northwestward into eastern Montana. As surface temperatures warm
today, scattered convective initiation will take place in the higher
terrain, with storms moving east-northeastward into the lower
elevations during the afternoon. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep
low to mid-level lapse rates will support a marginal severe threat,
mainly in areas that heat up the most. A few damaging wind gusts and
hail will be the primary threats.

..Broyles/Moore.. 06/25/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 251241
SWODY1
SPC AC 251239

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS...SOUTHEAST...AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe wind gusts are possible from parts of the Carolinas into the
Southeast, with widely scattered strong to severe storms possible
from the northern High Plains eastward to the Mid Atlantic.

...Synopsis...
A large upper ridge remains in place over much of the eastern CONUS
this morning, although an upper low centered northeast of the
Bahamas is beginning to impinge on its southeastern periphery.
Early-morning satellite imagery also shows a well-defined shortwave
trough moving through southern CA and southern Great Basin.

Recent surface analysis reveals a large reservoir of low-level
moisture beneath this upper ridge, with low 70s dewpoints over much
of the OH and TN Valleys, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast. This
low-level moisture extends across much of the Plains as well, with
mid 60s dewpoints reaching into south-central/southeast SD. A
diffuse, somewhat wavy stationary boundary exists between this moist
airmass and the drier, more continental airmass edging into the
northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and Great Lakes.

This large area of ample low-level moisture will support potential thunderstorms much of the CONUS east of the Rockies. Highest
coverage of strong to severe storms is anticipated across the Mid MO
Valley and the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic, with more widely scattered
strong to severe storms across the northern and central High Plains
and along the frontal zone across the northern OH Valley.

...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast...
In addition to the moist airmass described in the synopsis, a pocket
of seasonally cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. around -10 deg C at
500 mb) associated with the Bahamas upper low extends into the
region. 12Z MHX and CHS soundings sampled -10 and -12 deg C at 500
mb, and 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.9 and 8.4 deg C per km,
respectively. These thermodynamic conditions will result in very
strong buoyancy as the airmass diurnally heats this afternoon.
MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg is anticipated from AL eastward into the
Carolinas. Thunderstorm development is expected once convective
inhibition erodes around 18Z, with the very strong buoyancy
supporting intense updrafts. Vertical shear will be weak, with
erratic storm motions and a multicellular, pulse mode likely. Even
so, steep low-level lapse rates should support strong downdrafts and
numerous instances of damaging gusts are expected. These storms will
likely wane with the loss of daytime heating.

...Mid MO Valley into the Upper MS Valley...
Low-level moisture advection across the region today will bring low
70s dewpoints in southern MN by the late afternoon, while also
sharpening a warm frontal zone. By 18Z this warm front is forecast
to extend from a low over the central NE/SD border vicinity to near
the MN/IA border. Convergence along this boundary, as well as ascent
attendant to a convectively generated vorticity maximum rounding the
upper ridge, is expected to promote thunderstorm development within
the moderate buoyant airmass in place. Moderate southwesterly flow
aloft is anticipated over the region as well, with the resulting
combination of buoyancy and shear supporting strong to severe
storms. A few supercells are possible, but one or more bowing line
segments capable of damaging gusts are the primary severe threat.

...Northern/Central High Plains...
The shortwave trough that currently extends from central MT trough
eastern ID is forecast to continue eastward today. Ahead of the
trough, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place by afternoon
from eastern Colorado northwestward into eastern Montana. As surface temperatures warm today, scattered convective initiation will take
place in the higher terrain, with storms moving east-northeastward
into the lower elevations during the afternoon. Vertical shear will
be modest, with the strongest shear across the northern High Plains,
but high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates could still
support damaging wind gusts along surging cold pools. Isolated hail
is possible across the higher terrain as well.

..Mosier/Wendt.. 06/25/2025

$$

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