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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0450

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Apr 14 21:48:26 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 142148
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 142148=20
    MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-142345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0450
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0448 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

    Areas affected...Blue Ridge into central/northern
    Virginia...western/central Maryland...Washington DC

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 142148Z - 142345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...A threat for damaging winds and large hail will persist
    into the Blue Ridge and eastward this evening. A watch is likely in
    the next hour.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms, including a supercell with a
    history of large to very-large hail, continue to move quickly (45-50
    kts) eastward late this afternoon. Dewpoints near and ahead of these
    storms are in the low 50s F. Models have continued to suggest some
    amount of upscale growth is expected with this activity. Even if
    this does not occur, these fast moving cells/linear segments will be
    capable of swaths of damaging winds and large hail. From the Blue
    Ridge eastward, dewpoints have slowly climbed into the low 50s F
    over the last couple of hours. Based off of current observations,
    dewpoints could increase another 1-2 F prior to storm arrival. There
    will be at least a narrow window where storms could remain surface
    based in the Blue Ridge vicinity. Farther east dewpoints and
    temperatures are lower. With some additional surface cooling
    expected, storms will have greater potential to be slightly elevated
    with eastward extent. However, forecast soundings show a dry
    sub-cloud layer that would support a continued risk of damaging
    downburst winds even with elevated storms. A watch will likely be
    needed in the next hour.

    ..Wendt/Gleason.. 04/14/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6v2MQsr33W33me3g_tJ_VPx4DsV07bRM2JDuNKJHaclfPFp03ZlbJT8nTP6qukA2wCHnCg-qh= OAJE9aQBPnhv8kGhX0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

    LAT...LON 39347923 39647877 39557757 39057689 38407673 37557679
    37447706 37277796 37257910 37497942 39347923=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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