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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0622

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 4 01:29:15 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 040129
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 040128=20
    KSZ000-OKZ000-040330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0622
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0828 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024

    Areas affected...Southwest Kansas into northwest Kansas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 180...

    Valid 040128Z - 040330Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 180
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Large hail and severe wind gusts remain possible even as
    storms may tend to become elevated later into the evening.

    DISCUSSION...KVNX/KDDC VAD profiles show an increase in the
    low-level jet. The 00Z observed DDC sounding showed very steep
    mid-level lapse rates though some capping was also present. Current
    convection in WW 180 is expected to continue eastward with aid from
    the low-level jet. The primary severe risk will exist with a storm
    near the Wichita/Kearney County line. This storm will be capable of
    hail up to 1.5-2 in. A line of storms is also moving east from near
    Garden City to just west of Beaver, OK. This line has shown some
    deepening cores on MRMS CAPPI and could produce severe wind gusts.
    The overall eastern extent of the severe risk is not clear. However,
    even as storms may become elevated with time, large hail and
    isolated damaging winds could still occur. The tornado risk is
    conditional on a discrete storm mode and should continue to diminish
    as low-level stability increases. Some areal extension of WW 180
    could be needed depending on convective trends over the next 2
    hours.

    ..Wendt.. 05/04/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_33w0bykrM1xvpepjlgIowvFLFnVEzcKkalUV7rU881kIcE7XPNxiELxYGzY0H7Crv1ZX92yz= LHUAcZNuYZwmOvCkww$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...

    LAT...LON 38680144 39000081 38999910 38689893 38069879 38049879
    37999879 37279897 36849950 36660018 36540079 36620141
    36700160 38680144=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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