ACUS11 KWNS 031819
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031818=20
TXZ000-032015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0613
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024

Areas affected...parts of the Texas South Plains and Permian Basin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 031818Z - 032015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development,
including a couple of evolving supercells, appears increasingly
probable through 2-4 PM CDT. Strongest storms may eventually become
capable of producing large hail in excess of 3 inches in diameter,
and perhaps potential for a tornado.

DISCUSSION...Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content beneath
steep lapse rates associated with warm elevated mixed-layer air is
allowing for the development of strong to extreme potential
instability with full insolation. During the next few hours this
will become focused along a zone of strengthening differential
surface heating and mixing, where an initial cold frontal surge into
the Texas South Plains has stalled and is weakening, and along a
sharpening dryline south of this boundary into the Davis Mountains
vicinity.

Mid/upper support for convective development is unclear, but west to southwesterly flow aloft appears to be trending at least broadly
difluent, as initially weak low-level warm advection becomes a bit
more enhanced along the boundaries. The Rapid Refresh and
High-Resolution Rapid Refresh, among other output, suggest that the
initiation of isolated to widely scattered storms may commence as
early as 19-21Z, as convective temperatures are approached.

Lower through mid-level wind fields are at least initially rather
weak, but veering with height beneath 20-40 kt flow in the 500-300
mb layer seems likely to be supportive of the evolution of intense
supercell structures given the instability. Tornadic potential
appears a bit more unclear, but in the presence of light to modest southwesterly deep layer mean flow, rightward propagating storms
along the segment of strengthening differential heating roughly
near/north of Big Spring into areas west of Abilene may pose the
most appreciable risk.

..Kerr/Smith.. 05/03/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4-f_nNe5mfWo1F9n2Mh5hugIoIiCwjNk8nmO0nM5B9zwfuKyD7-9L_Wz_-vzDRGeLyM-StqPe= AjlU_zadN4L-auGroU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 31909934 31220098 30610136 29930172 29780198 29640274
30990296 31900244 33200179 32849974 31909934=20


=3D =3D =3D
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