ACUS11 KWNS 030435
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030434=20
ARZ000-OKZ000-030630-

Mesoscale Discussion 0611
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024

Areas affected...Central and East-Central OK into Far West-Central
AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 030434Z - 030630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail and/or damaging gusts possible for the next
few hours across central and east-central Oklahoma.

DISCUSSION...The combination of modest ascent along a
southward-moving cold front and weak warm-air advection has lead to
the increase in predominantly multicellular thunderstorm across
central and east-central OK. Deep-layer vertical shear is modest,
which is expected to keep updraft organization minimal. Even so,
relatively cold mid-level temperatures, helping support max lapse
rates in the 2-6 km layer around 7 deg C per km. These are steep
enough to support moderate buoyancy and the potential for a few
updrafts strong enough to produce small hail. Elevated character to
most of the storms should limit the wind gusts threat, but
interaction with the front and/or with other storms could lead to a
few stronger gusts (as recently observed with the storm over Wagoner
and Cherokee Counties).

..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/03/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8ldLQA9f_oD4478b77SuAR87y5-jZih56GBzobJbfSjxaYdRb4szFmjxAzqukWyksFZH4p8c6= tglLmXyawzHDTPNzWo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 34699640 35399761 35909713 36189602 35789415 34819427
34489471 34489562 34699640=20


=3D =3D =3D
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