ACUS11 KWNS 021054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021054=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-021230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0603
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0554 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024

Areas affected...southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 021054Z - 021230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms may locally produce gusty winds or
hail to near 1 inch over the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms will continue shifting
east/southeast the next few hours. A 30-40 kt southerly low-level
jet and embedded, convectively induced MCV is likely aiding in
continued thunderstorm organization amid moderate instability
(MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg). Sporadic, locally strong gusts are
possible, in additional to hail to near 1 inch, before storms move
offshore over the next couple of hours. Given the marginal nature of
the severe threat, and limited spatial/temporal extent of the
threat, a watch is not expected.

..Leitman/Edwards.. 05/02/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7SRFVBZtrORL7U1rlrVj99H3iMThlZDdG94V2xaCDEvLCnh-ldDPxMjMysZU6IHOthxmic_7_= vUn0hFFKfgvN_3GYW0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON 29919546 30179604 30349616 30649604 30969575 31019543
30889419 30699327 30469286 30239269 29569291 29369357
29469431 29919546=20


=3D =3D =3D
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