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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0600

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 2 04:27:28 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 020427
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 020427=20
    NEZ000-KSZ000-020600-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0600
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1127 PM CDT Wed May 01 2024

    Areas affected...Northern KS...South-Central/Southeast NE

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 174...

    Valid 020427Z - 020600Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 174
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Threat for strong gusts will expand eastward across north-central/northeast KS and far south-central/southeast NE, and a
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed soon. Isolated hail
    will remain possible across western and north-central KS in the wake
    of the bow.

    DISCUSSION...Ongoing convective line over northwest KS has undergone
    notable intensification and organization over the last hour or so.
    Several gusts from 50 to 80 mph have been reported with this bow
    thus far. This bow is expected to continue progressing
    eastward/northeastward for the at least the next few hours. Current
    storm motion is estimated to be northeastward at 40 kt, taking this
    bow to the current edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 174 by 0630Z.
    However, some acceleration of this bow is possible, likely bringing
    it to the edge of the watch sooner. Damaging wind gusts will be the
    primary threat, with some isolated significant-severe gusts up to 80
    mph also possible. Isolated large hail around 1" to 1.25" is also
    possible. Given this severe potential, a downstream watch will
    likely be needed.

    More cellular development is possible to the west of this bow, as
    warm-air advection across the bow's outflow fosters additional
    storms. Large hail from 1" to 2" is possible with this activity.

    ..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/02/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_xrNvn7AxsMfxZQSsJnZQ6C-j6MXUVUGR2R7R9FPdN8Pihu5hzYnDeIqs-_0rQeu1ffClnNfU= Oo8SoPeCpuR1_8dMmE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

    LAT...LON 38829697 38379882 38130106 38520168 39570102 40079934
    40559628 39609560 39129584 38829697=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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