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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0597

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 2 02:55:25 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 020255
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 020255=20
    KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-020430-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0597
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0955 PM CDT Wed May 01 2024

    Areas affected...Far Northeast CO...Western and Central KS...Southwest/South-Central NE

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 172...174...

    Valid 020255Z - 020430Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 172, 174
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and damaging gusts will
    continue, with the tornado threat expected to gradually diminish
    over the next hour or two.

    DISCUSSION...Two separate convective regimes currently exist across
    the region, a discrete mode regime across central KS and a more
    linear, forced regime from far northeast CO into northwestern KS and
    southwest NE. A pair of persistent supercells remain within the
    discrete mode regime across central KS, although recent trends
    suggest each of these supercells may be weakening and becoming
    increasingly dissociated from the boundary layer. Even so, moist
    low-level flow will continue to advect northward amid a
    strengthening low-level jet, which will likely allow storms to
    persist for a bit longer before gradually weakening.

    Several bowing segments exist farther north from far northeast CO
    into far northwest KS and far southwest NE. This cluster is expected
    to continue eastward, with some additional southeastward development
    along the front possible as well. Steep mid-level lapse rates will
    continue to promote the development of large hail, with some strong
    gusts possible as well, particularly on the southern edge of this
    cluster and when any storm mergers occur.

    ..Mosier.. 05/02/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4g4uDO1-2Y58tJEuq15wrh6kbZIZhOqjoX_lHR8UU-tGVj6N2sexvOFBIn9O8lvN-OQrIGvEP= _QC-p80W9mte7n2JxQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

    LAT...LON 38549857 38389994 38900151 39110272 39460288 39830194
    40180137 40430108 40590074 40660003 40539947 40009840
    38549857=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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