ACUS11 KWNS 012307
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012307=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-020030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0592
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0607 PM CDT Wed May 01 2024

Areas affected...Eastern TX Panhandle...Far Northwestern TX...Far Southwestern/Western OK

Concerning...Tornado Watch 171...

Valid 012307Z - 020030Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 171 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for all severe hazards, including very large hail
from 2.5" to 3.5" in diameter, strong gusts up to 75 mph, and
tornadoes continues across the eastern TX Panhandle.

DISCUSSION...Several supercells are currently ongoing across the
eastern TX Panhandle, including a pair of tornadic storms, one over
Roberts Ochiltree Counties in the northeast TX Panhandle and the
other farther south in Briscoe and Hail Counties. Both of these
storms, as well as the other supercells developing southwestward
from the Panhandle into the Texas South Plains, are in a favorable
environment for persistence. Main factor influencing overall updraft maintenance and storm persistence will be storm
mergers/interactions. Some secondary influence from anvil shading
and resulting boundary-layer cooling is possible, although this
could be offset by continuing low-level moisture advection. The
general expectation is for storms to persist, with perhaps one
substantial storm eventually emerging out of the cluster over
Briscoe and Hall Counties. Given the unimpeded inflow and
anticipated strengthening of low-level flow, this storm would likely
represent the best candidate for a significant severe weather,
including very large hail, strong gusts, and tornadoes, over the
next hour or two.=20

Storm motion has been relatively slow thus far, generally 15 to 20
kt, with a few storm moving even slower. As such, this activity will
likely remain in the eastern TX Panhandle (i.e. within Tornado Watch
171) for the next few hours. Even so, trends will be monitored for
faster storm motion and the potential for activity to move into
western OK earlier.

..Mosier.. 05/01/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_UkPyLU-pWAA4Fg34NAc9OmWH5-Mc-R2gMHM5V1vsVK53YGCNTVrcWesIujppCU172ZCHXAc2= xLPmEJaS-2dCei-0fo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 36030139 36650085 36369982 34399974 33330031 33380173
35130151 36030139=20


=3D =3D =3D
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