1. Forum
  2. Fidonet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0590

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed May 1 20:33:23 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 012033
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 012033=20
    TXZ000-012200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0590
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0333 PM CDT Wed May 01 2024

    Areas affected...South central Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 012033Z - 012200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
    across portions of south central Texas and the Hill Country within
    the next 1 to 2 hours. Very large hail over 2 inches in diameter and
    wind gusts exceeding 70 mph could accompany a couple of discrete
    supercells.

    DISCUSSION...Widespread stratus across most of south central Texas
    has been slow to erode through this afternoon. However, visible
    satellite imagery indicates some mixing is occurring across the
    region where temperatures are already in the mid 70s to low 80s.
    This, combined with dew points in the low to mid 70s and steep
    (7.5-8 C) mid level lapse rates is yielding 2500-3000 J/kg of
    MLCAPE. As an upstream mid level shortwave trough, apparent in
    latest WV imagery over southwest Chihuahua Mexico, approaches in the
    next 1 to 2 hours mid level ascent should aid in the development of
    scattered thunderstorms. Given deep layer effective shear magnitudes
    around 50 kt any localized deeper convection could become organized
    with a threat of very large hail and damaging wind gusts, though a
    lack of additional forcing mechanisms at the surface should limit
    the overall coverage of severe thunderstorms. Given the uncertainty
    of the coverage, confidence in a weather watch is not particularly
    high at this moment.

    ..Barnes/Lyons/Hart.. 05/01/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6ERfJwQN2Y-mDprESwRQ6fP5Mzgfh9GgyW1DGCR8JnTNRsneo63z_TbEKcGhMg9aG0og2eYWR= kc7eoDWIGSpvdkWycU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

    LAT...LON 28389814 28429856 28569925 29389969 30420039 31130025
    31529979 31589889 31409814 31279765 31189746 30729710
    30169673 29909683 29549684 29279692 29089738 28689738
    28519762 28419788 28389814=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)