ACUS11 KWNS 011958
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011957=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-012200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0589
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Wed May 01 2024

Areas affected...parts of northwest Texas and the Texas Panhandle
into southwestern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 011957Z - 012200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development
appears increasingly likely through 4-6 PM CDT, including the
evolution of supercells with potential to produce large hail in
excess of 2 inches in diameter, and a risk for tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...Deepening convective development is evident
south-southeast through northeast of Amarillo, along a sharpening
dryline that extends northward into southwestern Kansas near Garden
City. To the east of this boundary, the western flank of a
boundary-layer air mass impacted by convective outflow appears to be
gradually modifying across the eastern Texas Panhandle into the
Childress vicinity, in response to continuing isolation.

Aside from weak lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, large-scale
forcing for ascent may remain weak to negligible into early evening,
and the warming aloft will contribute to increasing inhibition to
the east of the dryline. However, with further surface heating, it
appears that the approach of convective temperatures along the
dryline and differential heating boundary will contribute to
increasing probabilities for isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorm development through 21-23Z.

With 60s to near 70F surface dew points contributing to large
mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg along the surface
boundaries, in the presence of steep lapse rates, the environment
is becoming increasingly support of potential for supercells beneath
30-40 kt west-southwesterly flow around 500 mb. Models suggest that
this may veer to more of a westerly component by early evening,
while modest southerly flow around 850 mb backs with time and
strengthens to around 30+ kt across the eastern Texas Panhandle. As
this occurs, profiles appear likely to become increasingly
supportive of strengthening low-level mesocyclones with potential to
produce tornadoes.

Tornadic potential may become maximized with stronger cells tending
to propagate eastward and southeastward across the differential
heating boundary, before they tend to weaken as they encounter more
stable updraft inflow. However, in the wake of this activity,
renewed vigorous thunderstorm development is likely to persist along
the stationary to slowly retreating dryline into early evening, with
a continuing risk for large hail and tornadoes.

..Kerr/Hart.. 05/01/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5HYCCmEaofF153Yh-PYmYGDEmI-AUw3Q4BZEUBC4VPE8iB6juCHSv6IY83vaGS9SFBXcAS4H-= F2Z6wFgCiNQl7KadpE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON 34920202 36060177 37020206 37600219 38140090 38339969
37339938 36359964 35579977 34949963 34299960 33650005
33440120 33690192 34350178 34920202=20


=3D =3D =3D
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