ACUS11 KWNS 301806
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301805=20
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-301930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0574
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Areas affected...portions of eastern Nebraska far northeastern
Kansas...western Iowa and northwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 301805Z - 301930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated storm development is possible by 19-20z across
parts of eastern NE and far northeast KS. Initially supercells may
support a risk for all hazards.

DISCUSSION...As of 1800 UTC, visible imagery showed deepening
cumulus towers east of a weak surface cyclone across portions of
eastern NE and northern KS. Signs of subtle forcing for ascent are
beginning to overspread this regional ahead of a low-amplitude
shortwave trough over western NE. Amidst increasing ascent and
strong diurnal heating, remaining MLCINH is rapidly eroding.
Observational trends and Hi-res model guidance indicate isolated
storm development is possible as early as 19-20z across parts of
eastern NE and far northern KS. Upper 50s to low 60s F surface
dewpoints and steep mid-level lapse rates are supporting MLCAPE of
1500-2000 J/kg. Given the potential for strong updrafts,
organization into initial supercells is expected with 40-50 kt of
effective shear observed on area VADs. Isolated storms will be
capable of large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts
initially. Tornadoes will also be possible, especially near the warm
front farther east and south, where lower cloud bases and stronger
low-level shear are favored.

While the initial storm mode is expected to be primarily
supercellular, the surface cold front will impinge on the western
warm sector later this afternoon. The increase in linear forcing and
additional storm development through the afternoon suggests storm
interactions may favor upscale growth into short line segments and
clusters with time. While, there is some uncertainty on storm mode,
a tornado watch is likely this afternoon.

..Lyons/Hart.. 04/30/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9JgAGYu-VHNRFoPkQM3JLRhdP3MEVKteUGAgntR2DMd-dvLH0xfSfm63iYWZSe6STBx3rB_jb= OamPpyXOux5Z0LftsU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...

LAT...LON 41959701 42469631 42469550 42359453 42219392 41989340
41619319 41189322 40779364 40549435 40359649 40179724
40399761 40569757 41959701=20


=3D =3D =3D
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